Seasonal Context & Events

We’re deep in the heart of earnings season now, with reports flying in and price reactions ranging from textbook to “what the hell was that?” There are no holidays or options expirations on the radar this week, so the Market’s free to move on pure earnings drama and sentiment. That said, there’s still a bit of leftover turbulence from end-of-month flows—those inflows and outflows don’t just vanish overnight—so don’t be surprised if price action stays a little twitchy early in the week.

Key events include:

• 07th August 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Yep, I know—I said I’d be back on July 25th. Instead, it’s been a full month since the last post. Why? Because sometimes life doesn’t ask for your opinion—it just dumps its calendar on you. So, zero trades in June. And July? Also zero. Am I mad about it? Not really. I’ve barely managed to get the new setup running, and I’m definitely not jumping back into the Market mid-August unless something crystal clear shows up.

Quick recap of the past month: I vanished because I moved. The apartment wasn’t finished—missing furniture, missing desk, missing just about everything. Only now I’ve finally got my workspace back and started reviewing charts again. Watching the landlord try to juggle contractors and late installers was a whole new kind of chaos. Add in the overpriced, poorly assembled furniture, and let’s just say: I thank the Market gods every day for teaching me I don’t need to deal with people for a living.

Years ago, I tried launching a small online business importing products from Asia. Lasted long enough to confirm what I already suspected—people test my patience. Missed deadlines, no-shows, “I forgot” excuses… it’s all noise I don’t want to hear again. Lesson learned: if you want something done properly, do it yourself—and don’t expect anyone else to show up on time.

As for real estate? Not my thing. Someone once pointed out how few names on the Forbes list made their fortune off rental properties. That’s all I needed. I don’t need to be smart—just need to copy what works. And while others see rent as a liability, I see it as a form of insurance. It gives me the right—but not the obligation—to walk away whenever I want. Sounds a lot like trading options, honestly.

Anyway, I’ll keep this short. No technicals here—just the reality check. And don’t worry, the end-of-month summary’s waiting right after this.

What happened last week? Well, I didn’t have eyes on it, so instead—let’s zoom out and do a post-mortem on the entire month of July.

Let’s rewind to what was forecasted:

I expect the Market to rise into the 11th, with that upward move potentially sticking around until the 15th. Around that point, I’m eyeing a pullback that could stretch into the 23rd. Then we may see a bumpy climb from the 24th to the 28th, followed by a more decisive move upward to close out the month.

DOIs for July are: 7th, 15th, 23rd, 31st!

Now that the candles are in and the dust’s settled, here’s what actually played out: we shifted from up to sideways between the 7th and the 15th (not bad), then got a steady rise into the 28th—right in line with the 23rd DOI. The peak came on the 29th, and while that wasn’t on the DOI list, I’ll let it slide because that 31st candle? Chef’s kiss.

As for the written forecast? Let’s call it “close but improvable.” The expected pullback from mid-month never really showed up—we got a clean rise instead. Hey, 50/50 shot, right? The bump from the 24th to 28th was spot on, but instead of a decisive move up to close the month… we got a pretty decisive move down. How could I have seen that coming? Simple answer: study more, learn more, evolve. The Market’s always offering lessons—you just have to be willing to accept the feedback (especially when it slaps).

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6497
R2	6438
R1	6368
Close	6238
S1	6142
S2	6043
S3	6021

Forecasts

What about next week? Well… mixed feelings. Should I even bother forecasting? Then again, you’re all reading this for free—and doing so at your own risk—so why should that dent my self-confidence?

Let’s be honest: August and September are historically the Market’s sloppiest months. Translation? The candles are usually small or red. Small means chop. Red means down. And let’s be real—if I had to pick, I’d take a clear down over a messy sideways grind any day of the week.

A couple things caught my eye heading into this week. First, S1 and R1 are nearly equidistant from the close—always a sign that price is indecisive and may be gearing up for some turbulence. Second, some of the mid-term indicators (weekly charts) are starting to cross. When that happens, I mentally prep for volatility on the shorter timeframes—usually for about three candles’ worth of mess. Combine that with the fact we’re still in earnings season (which tends to keep a full-on nosedive in check), and what do you get? My guess: choppy conditions.

If I had to put money on it—figuratively—I’d say we get a pause mid-week, followed by a resumption of the downtrend. So yes, I’m leaning bearish, but I don’t see price punching past S1 or R1. Think range-bound frustration, not meltdown.

As for the rest of August? I don’t really have any solid DOIs marked—just one, actually. The 22nd. That’s the only spot on my map where a potential buy-and-hold setup might show up. Outside of that, it’s a month to stay nimble or stay out.