Seasonal Context & Events

We’re heading into the final stretch of earnings season—the last two weeks where the stragglers report and the market tries to make sense of it all. With no options expirations, no holidays, and no end-of-month flows to stir the pot.

Key events include:

• 07th May 18:00UTC Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 07th May 18:30UTC Fed Press Conference
• 08th May 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Last week, I started reading a new book, and right from the beginning it hit on something that’s often misunderstood in trading: greed. Not the usual “greed is bad” cliché—quite the opposite. The author makes a solid point: wanting more isn’t inherently wrong. Are top athletes like Michael Jordan greedy because they push for more wins, more records, more greatness? Of course not. Greed only becomes a problem when it starts undermining your performance and distorting your vision—that’s the moment ambition crosses the line.

Among a lot of interesting insights (I haven’t finished the book yet), the author dropped a surprisingly practical strategy for handling emotions—not by suppressing them, but by listening to them, like technical indicators for your brain. Two simple things I’ve already added to my trading journal:

1. “How are you?”
   Literally just writing down how I’m feeling when I sit at my desk. Here’s a real entry from today:
   “02/05/2025 17:19 UTC – Feeling a bit angry for missing the April 22nd move. My charts weren’t prepped and now I’m fighting the urge to chase. I keep thinking ‘price will retrace,’ but indicators disagree. Am I confusing a pause for a pullback because I just want to be right? Reminder: you tend to jump the gun after missing a move. The market will be here tomorrow. Don’t chase—wait for it.”
2. “What does the Market want you to do?”
   Based on a first glance—price action, daily % move—what’s the Market tempting you to do? Then ask yourself: do you agree with that instinct? If yes, why? If no, why not? It’s a small exercise, but it helps shrink the ego and keeps me from taking trades just to prove a point when the charts say otherwise.

Now, do these steps stop me from making every mistake? No—they don’t magically prevent me from choosing the wrong option expiry or position size. But those mistakes usually happen when I’m rushing. These two questions slow me down. They give me awareness. They help me get into the zone—where I can feel the rhythm, like a pro athlete, and execute with clarity instead of emotion.

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for a quiet week—a pause before next week’s potential move.

And that held… until it didn’t. Things stayed calm through Wednesday, but then Thursday and Friday blew through every resistance level in sight, with Friday wrapping up right between R2 and R3. So much for the pause.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5947
R2	5835
R1	5742
Close	5686
S1	5553
S2	5496
S3	5474

Forecasts

Just a few things to keep in mind this week—and to be honest, the main one isn’t exactly my favorite topic for a market blog, since I deal with price action, not primetime drama. But reality is reality, and on the 7th at 18:30 UTC, we’ll get someone’s official point of view on something, and that alone could throw a bit of a roller coaster into the mix. For May, my “DOI” (Dates of Interest) are the 5th, the 7th, and the range between the 13th–15th. Translation? The uptrend could continue, but likely in a stair-step fashion—small dips, big jumps, a bit of sideways drift, rinse and repeat. Unfortunately, that choppy grind may be the theme for the entire month of May. And with summer kicking in, the Market gets thinner, the entries get trickier, and the frustration gets real. That’s when traders start torching their accounts chasing setups that aren’t there. I’ll try not to be one of them.

P.S. Yes, I deleted the usual “Up,” “Sideways,” and “Down” sections—you’ve got eyes, you’ve got a chart, and I trust you can read the (expected weekly) range.