Seasonal Context & Events

With just one week to go before earnings season kicks off, the calendar looks pretty uneventful—no holidays, but Market will be closed on the 9th in honor of the former President Jimmy Carter, no options expirations, just a lot of market watching. I’m not one to obsess over events, but it’s worth being aware that the unemployment rate drops on Friday the 10th at 13:30 UTC. Will it “steer” the market? Maybe for a bit, because markets love a good excuse to wobble around. Beyond that, it’s business as usual—boredom mixed with the occasional overreaction.

Key events include:

7th January 15:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings

8th January 19:00 UTC FOMC Minutes

9th Junuary 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

10th January 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
30/12/24	0.06
31/12/24	0.58
02/01/25	0.34
03/01/25	0.78

Tried to escape the bottom, but then turned back down, to violently bounce back up.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
2.01	1.27
1.78	1.57

Still, high readings for a supported and long lasting rally to the up.

Coherence

SP500	+0.35%
RUT	+1.68%
DJT	+0.09%

Coherent and greedy, doesn’t follow along.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6124
R2	6106
R1	6093
Close	5942
S1	5772
S2	5753
S3	5747

Wrap Up & Forecast

Funny how the first trading day of the year managed to hammer everyone who jumped in long right at the open, just because it was the start of a new year. Not exactly the dream start, is it? But hey, as Warren Buffett once said, “The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” So, if the urge to throw money at the Market is irresistible, maybe just hand it over instead (kidding, of course).

Now, let’s get serious.

What happened? The Market spent the week sliding downward. Does that mean it’s time to dump all your holdings? Obviously not. The previous week’s target was 5783$, lining up with the lower part of the gap-up from November 6th (last year, technically). The lowest point of the week was 5829$—about 50$ off the target, or 0.80%. For an index, that’s quite a (too big) miss. Still, the Market doesn’t even know anyone exists, so taking it personally would be a bit much. Let’s call it room for improvement in forecasting.

Then, on the last day, the Market decided to bounce back up with a nice and strong move to the upside. Honestly, this was expected—just not so soon. The middle of next week seemed like a more fitting timeline. But hey, the Market does what it wants, when it wants, no need to consult anyone.

What’s next? As always, the Market has three options: up, down, or sideways. Is the downtrend over? It seems so. Will it go sideways? Maybe not. So, does that mean up? Perhaps, but how far? Resistance levels, all magically calculated, are way above 6000$, which doesn’t seem likely this week. The range looks more like 5975$-6000$ and with Friday’s close there isn’t much room left. That would place the Market right below the 26th December high and almost aligned with 11th November peak. And after that? Possibly another short leg down. Why? Because. So, the gap will never be closed? Well, maybe in the next round down. What if it rises? Well, to be sure it’s actually rising, maybe it makes sense to wait for the Market to stop making lower highs and lower lows. Just a thought.

Given that the calculated S/R levels are currently far from the price action (a common occurrence during range-bound times), it seemed like the perfect opportunity to add a little something extra to the chart. You’ve already seen the red and green lines (pretty self-explanatory), but now I’ve introduced blue dotted lines. These mark my POI—Points of Interest. Call them whatever you want, but I like to think of them as breadcrumbs for when things start to get interesting.

From a longer-term (year-ly) perspective, the so-called “2025 apocalypse” was a popular call—guilty as charged. However, this is likely to mark the bottom for the entire year. Some corrections are expected around the first two weeks of March (around 200 points, give or take), which could present another solid ‘buy-and-hold’ opportunity. Beyond that, the Market is expected to rise until around mid-July, where a sideways-to-down phase (less than 200 points) might take over, lasting until the final days of August. From there, a rise into September could follow, pausing in the middle of the month before a small correction to close out September. October? Likely another leg up, pushing into mid-November, after which the Market may shift into its classic “I have no idea what to do in December” mode. That mess might just recover during the last two weeks of December because, well, that’s how markets like to end the year—full of surprises.

If still alive—and, more importantly, if memory serves—forecasts will be updated during key months like March, July, and August, or whenever something interesting might happen. Let’s face it, those are the moments worth commenting on.

Oh, and I almost forgot! Since billion-dollar firms keep missing their targets, why shouldn’t I give it a shot too? 7200, by the 31/12/2025. See you in 12 months!