Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is knocking, and—as tradition demands—the Financials get first dibs on the spotlight. The big boys like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will strut out their quarterly confessions, setting the tone while the rest of Wall Street nervously checks their balance sheets. Expect some early noise from credit card companies, insurance firms, and the ever-dramatic regional banks. But don’t expect much else—no options expiration to stir the pot, no holidays to derail the algo rhythm, and no end-of-month fund flows to add spice.

Key events include:

• 09th April 18:00UTC FOMC Minutes
• 10th April 12:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 10th April 12:30UTC CPI
• 10th April 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 11th April 12:30UTC PPI

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Patience matters—especially for those who jumped in at the March 13th low, hoping they’d caught the turning point. But higher timeframes were flashing structural weakness, suggesting that bounce was more of a teaser than a trend shift. Sure, you can invoke politics, wars, and the usual macro drama as excuses, but the price action already gave the clue: that early March drop had enough weight to bend monthly and even quarterly charts. Moves like that usually don’t resolve with a single bounce—they tend to need another leg down. Events and headlines just change the choreography, turning what could’ve been a smooth decline into a jagged mess of gaps and volatility. Still, when you look back, it’ll all seem obvious—“yeah, the downside was coming.” And when “uncertainty” becomes the Market’s favorite buzzword, it’s usually a sign to start looking lower. Words matter, after all—tongue is a creative force, as Charles Capps reminds us. Markets may move on numbers, but sentiment? That’s spoken into existence.

What happened last week? The forecast was pointing to a bounce on S1, with the key trigger being whether the Market would close below the March 13th low. A break there would have opened the door to a straight leg down—no detours. Otherwise, a potential double bottom was on the table, but even that came with conditions: it needed a close above the March 25th high to confirm. Without that, it’s just a pattern in waiting, not a signal.

On Monday, S1 stepped in as support—barely. Technically, the day’s low did dip below the March 13th level, which was already a clue that any rally attempt, news or no news, probably wasn’t built to last. I left the blue trendlines on the chart for context. Some might argue that Wednesday’s high got rejected by the lower boundary of that trendline formation—and I’d half-agree. It doesn’t actually touch the line, but it works well enough as a visual metaphor for the Market politely saying, “Nope, not today.”

Then came the classic after-hours surprise on Wednesday. Shocked? Really? Did anyone actually think Markets would just be allowed to coast? Imagine someone telling you, “By the way, from midnight, things are going to cost a bit more—indefinitely.” Yeah, not exactly a feel-good moment. Price got boxed in between S1 and S2, like it couldn’t decide which way to flinch.

And Friday? Who knows. This was written Thursday after the close—I’m off the grid for a bit. If I had to take a guess? More to come on Friday.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5674
R2	5635
R1	5504
Close	5396* Thursday Close!
S1	5347
S2	5246
S3	5190

Forecasts

As mentioned earlier, I won’t be around for Friday’s close (yes, that’s today for you reading this), so just know that the levels here were carefully calculated with my trusty Casio on the April 3rd close.

My Outlook: Normally, I like to be precise. But this week, I’m skipping the usual up/sideways/down forecast and sticking to what the charts have offered up to Thursday (read above for the why). Is the drop over? No idea. But here’s what I do know:

• The Market has not printed higher highs and higher lows.
• It has been printing lower lows and lower highs.
• The retracement since February 19th is $731—more than two-thirds of the move that began on August 5th.
• That 5350$ target mentioned in an earlier article? Suddenly not looking so unrealistic.
• Earnings are rolling in, and some folks might start dialing down their expectations—someone always pays, and that cost hits the companies first… then probably you, with a little extra on top.
• If certain countries decide to respond to global tensions with even more escalation, guess what? More costs—again, to you.

My view? Still looks down. Till when? Something may change (or get better/worst it really depends on how you are positioned) around the 7th-10th. I don’t see anything positive brewing unless someone drops a headline overnight that changes the narrative. And if that happens? If the Market suddenly pops up in response? There’s not much you or I can do. You can trade the downside, but surprise policy moves or sudden “we changed our mind” moments can rip it the other way. That’s just how it is—part of the game.

I marked that area for a reason—it’s going to act as serious resistance if the market decides to rise again. So don’t just glance at it and move on—burn it into your chart. That zone is where all the eager buyers from the March 13th low got their capital carved up by a clean 10% (or more) in under a month. And since retail traders have a bad habit of buying high and panic-selling low, guess what happens if price comes back to their entry? They’ll likely dump their positions just to break even. Not because it’s the smart trade—because it feels better than holding the bag. Emotional exit liquidity, basically.