Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is officially behind us, so no more fireworks from that corner. This week also brings no options expirations, no holidays, and no end-of-month flows to stir things up—basically, the calendar looks pretty quiet (or maybe not). The one thing worth flagging is the 2nd Wednesday of the month, which means the 10-year note auction is on deck. If I were you, I’d keep my hands off the keyboard until at least 17:00 UTC that day before making any decisions—if you really have to make one at all.

Key events include:

• 10th September 12:30UTC PPI
• 11th September 12:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 11th September 12:30UTC CPI
• 11th September 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Non-technical this week, so if you came looking for some “get rich quick magic trick,” feel free to skip—because I don’t publish that junk, and I don’t believe in it either.

I’m not here to get rich off this blog. It’s ad-free (except for that one accidental week I had Google Ads running—rookie mistake), and at the end of each article I just drop a small way for readers to say “thank you.” Shoutout to the two people who’ve supported so far—seriously, those few bucks mean more to me than any end-of-month paycheck. Truth is, I’m doing this more for myself than anyone else, which is also why I sometimes drift into the psychological side of being in the Market.

As I mentioned in my last piece, I caught a signal on Friday, August 29th that the Market was ready to turn down. But I also said I didn’t expect it to last more than three days. Why? Because I live completely detached from the news cycle—no headlines, no noise. That way my brain doesn’t push me into reacting to “good” or “bad” news. I literally loop the same two TV shows like a broken record. Sounds autistic, maybe, but it works—it keeps me from being influenced by all the garbage people try to throw into your head.

Personally, I’ve stopped believing in signals that are triggered by news. They rarely last more than two or three days before fading out. Example? April 3rd, 2025. Classic short-lived, news-driven move. Compare that with February 20th, 2025—solid signal, not triggered by headlines, just technicals lining up. And the best kind of mix? February 21st, 2020: a technical weakness already in place, then news came in and poured gasoline on it. Those are the gems—the setups that already made sense technically and then got supercharged by external events.

So, back to the August 29th signal. I saw it, checked it, validated it, and said to myself: “Yeah, it’s a down signal—but not enough to actually make money off it.” What did I do next? I shifted my horizon forward and asked: “When and where will it bounce?” Took note, waited, checked if the bounce was genuine, and then acted.

From what I’ve seen, Markets don’t move because of news. They price in the news, and that move shows up on the chart. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to go far enough, or last long enough, for you to actually profit.

In my head, I see it like an aircraft flying through different pressure zones. Pilots set their altimeters based on pressure, so when atmospheric pressure changes, the aircraft’s altitude relative to the ground shifts—but the plane itself is still climbing, cruising, or descending. Markets work the same way: news may jolt them up or down momentarily, but the bigger trajectory—uptrend, range, or downtrend—remains intact.

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for a drop onto the trendline and then a bounce to keep the rise alive.

Instead, the Market decided to dip a little lower—straight into S1 on Tuesday. So yes, my Casio was right, I was wrong. From there, we bounced as expected, pushed up to R1, and got promptly rejected.

Funny detail: Monday’s low landed at 6360 (bang on), the week’s high hit 6532 (just $4 off), and after all that, we closed pretty much exactly where we started—6481, same as the previous Friday. A whole week of movement just to go nowhere.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6579
R2	6554
R1	6536
Close	6481
S1	6346
S2	6337
S3	6249

Forecasts

Should’ve just trusted my trusty Casio—spit out S1 at 6360, and sure enough Tuesday’s low? 6360.58. Pat pat. Had that calculator for over 20 years, never changed the batteries—starting to think it deserves more credit than I do. Anyway, what’s next? This week I’ve got to bring in what I call awareness. Normally I don’t like anchoring forecasts on events, but sometimes you can’t ignore them. Case in point: the Inflation Rate release on the 11th. If it comes in “better than feared,” Markets go up. If it’s just as expected, we might get a whole lot of nothing. And if it disappoints? Well… cue the chaos.

But here’s the nuance: if the news is very good and the Market doesn’t budge, that screams hidden weakness. If the news is ugly but the Market holds, that’s hidden strength. Both tell you more than the headlines do.

So what do I expect? Honestly, no clear direction this time—which is why I’m framing it range-wise instead. By Friday, the weekly candle should be small-bodied —10–20 points, nothing dramatic. Why? Because Monday may start with a rise (that trendline’s been acting like a tripwire for buyers every time it’s touched), but here’s the catch: it’s been punctured a few times already, with lows slipping underneath. And just like poking a balloon with tiny pins, every puncture makes it weaker. So yeah, the line still attracts buyers, but it’s not the fortress it once was. After that, traders will likely freeze ahead of the inflation number. At 14:30 UTC on the 11th, we’ll finally see. Me? I won’t touch it until I’ve got a closed candle in front of me.

Range-wise, I see price boxed between S1 and R1. If something nasty shows up, a dip to S2 feels more likely than any clean push to R2. Yeah, the range is 190 points wide—which feels comically oversized for a “forecast”—but hey, it is what it is.