Seasonal Context & Events
Earnings season has concluded, shifting the market’s focus to macroeconomic data and key events.
As we approach the middle of the month, trading will continue without disruptions, with no holidays or options expirations scheduled for next week.
Key events include:
Inflation Rate on December 11th at 13:30 UTC
CPI on December 11th at 13:30 UTC
PPI on December 12th at 13:30 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims on December 12th at 13:30 UTC
Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.
Thermometer
Breadth
| Ratio | 0.40 |
| Line | -212 |
| Thrust | 0.28 |
All 3 show a marked declined compared to last week.
Put/Call Ratio
| OI | VO |
| 1.27 | 4.15 |
| 1.34 | 1.07 |
Marked increase on all values.
Coherence
| SP500 | +0.80% |
| RUT | -1.14% |
| DJT | -4.32% |
Not aligned, scared money, slowing down.
Support & Resistance Levels
| R3 | 6223 |
| R2 | 6184 |
| R1 | 6119 |
| Close | 6090 |
| S1 | 5988 |
| S2 | 5717 |
| S3 | 5479 |
Wrap Up & Forecast
The previous forecast anticipated a reaction at R1 6077, but that didn’t materialize—surprising? Not really.
The index spent the last three days of the week in a holding pattern, consolidating near that level.
So, what’s next?
The index has been climbing steadily for three consecutive weeks. From here, it could continue upward, move sideways, or even decline (imagine that!). A slight weakness in other markets, particularly the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI), suggests some potential pressure on the S&P 500 as well. However, any pullback is unlikely to be drastic. The 6000 level stands as a solid support, reinforced by the November 11th peak and its psychological significance.
As for resistance, we see it around 6184, with support below at approximately 5988. The upcoming Inflation Rate report might add some volatility to the mix, but for now, we’ll wait and see how the markets choose to play their hand.
