Seasonal Context & Events
The fifth week of earnings season is here, bringing reports from Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors, with retailers, energy giants, utility companies, and healthcare firms stepping into the spotlight. No holidays, no options expirations—just another full week of Market movement shaped by earnings results and whatever narratives investors decide to latch onto.
Key events include:
11th February 15:00UTC Fed Chair Powell Testimony
12th February 13:30UTC Inflation Rate
12th February 13:30UTC CPI
12th February 15:00UTC Fed Chair Powell Testimony
13th February 13:30UTC PPI
13th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.
Support & Resistance Levels
| R3 | 6182 |
| R2 | 6152 |
| R1 | 6128 |
| Close | 6025 |
| S1 | 5910 |
| S2 | 5877 |
| S3 | 5846 |
Wrap Up & Forecast
Some might call it déjà vu—and honestly, how often does that happen? Hard to say. But if you’ve found yourself staring at the charts thinking, “I’ve seen this before,” just go back a week and you’ll find the exact same behavior playing out.
I won’t sit here and say, “I expected that,” but after Friday’s tariff news, I can say I took advantage of it before the close. Did it play out the way I like? Not really—I prefer a flowing Market, not a choppy one. In these conditions, spreads widen (I don’t fight computers—I buy at the ask, sell at the bid, since I’m trading for dollars, not pennies), price action gets messy, and any move tends to lose momentum fast.
Did I manage to close my positions? Honestly, only half of them. And for the past five days, I’ve bounced between “I should have closed all of it” and “More downside is coming.”
Do I blame the Market? No.
Do I blame the participants? Nope.
I’m just a person managing my own trading, projecting my own thoughts onto charts. I take losses the same way I take gains—what matters is that, over time, the gains outnumber the losses. Simple as that.
I’ve removed some metrics from the article. Why? Because I reminded myself that things get way too foggy when you try to juggle too many complex variables at once. Personally, I’ve always had a clearer outlook by just focusing on price action and a few solid indicators—nothing fancy, just the usual suspects: MACD, RSI, ATR, Bollinger Bands, and so on.
And as my blog says, “Keep it simple, stupid.” So, we’re going back to simple, stupid stuff. The Market is a fascinating place—you can make it as complicated or as easy as you want. That’s just how it is when numbers get involved. When forecasts start feeling foggy, what you need is clarity—not more complexity.
What happened last week? Gap down at the open—once again, thanks to “bad news.” The low (5923$) landed right on target at 5920$ (expected range was 5970$-5920$), hovering around S2 at 5916$. Then, just like the previous week, the Market spent the rest of the time climbing back up, closing that gap. I was expecting something to happen between the 5th and 7th, and Friday’s move on the 7th? That was exactly what I had been waiting for. Wouldn’t mind another bite, of course. But the Market rarely cares about what “I” want.
Just for fun, I changed the color of the five candles from the week of January 27th to yellow—same for the five candles from the week of February 3rd but in blue.
What’s next? Yep, the usual choices: Up, Sideways, or Down.
Up? Always a possibility. But what about probabilities? They look better than last week, simply because the Market has spent two weeks trying to decline and repeatedly found buyers at lower levels. Earnings are still rolling in, and they tend to support upward movement. Up to where? I wouldn’t be surprised for the Market making new highs so yeah R1 and R2 range would fit.
Sideways? Definitely possible. Some might argue that the Market has already been moving sideways since January 24th—and honestly, they wouldn’t be entirely wrong. It really depends on what you mean by “sideways.”
Down? Last but not least—if the Market decides it’s time to take a breather, I’d be watching for strong support around 6000$, given its psychological significance. If that doesn’t hold, then I’d be looking at R1 as the next level to step in.
My outlook? Unless something major shakes things up over the weekend, the Market usually tries to stay consistent with Friday’s action. Sure, there will be some adjustments at the open as people price in weekend events, but after that, it tends to stick to the script. What does that mean? I still see some downside that could last until around February 12th, and after that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Market snapping back up.
6200$-6250$ by February 18th? Still looks solid. Let’s see how it plays out.
I’ve also sketched out what my eyes are picking up on. I don’t usually give much weight to these formations until they actually break out—either up or down—from the trendlines shaping them. So, for now, technically, there’s nothing there. No broadening top formation, just lines waiting for confirmation.
Someone smarter than me might point out that there are other patterns on different Market Indexes that typically signal a move down. It’s up to you to check if that holds true or not.
