Seasonal Context & Events

We’re sliding into the tail end of earnings season—just a few stragglers left to report. No holidays on the calendar, options expirations to stir things up, and no end-of-month flows pushing money in or out. The only real blip worth circling is the second Wednesday of the month, when the bond market takes center stage with the 10-year note auction—a reminder that even when equities look quiet, there’s always another corner of the market making noise.

Key events include:

• 12th August 12:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 12th August 12:30UTC CPI
• 14th August 12:30UTC PPI
• 14th August 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

August… the month I love to hate. Everything grinds to a halt, like the world’s on siesta, and people act as if they can actually afford to take time off from their lives. I get it—if you hate what you do, you count the days until you can escape it. I genuinely feel sorry for them, I really do.

Now, something (briefly) on the technical side. Last week, my medium-term charts (weekly) already had indicators sitting high and flirting with a cross to the downside. And here’s the trap—people see that and immediately think, “Oh my god, the weekly’s going down, the Market will collapse tomorrow!” Not quite. The reason I called for a choppy August instead of a complete market nosedive is because, yes, indicators are high and may cross soon—but context matters. Pull up your own charts: compare last week to the week of February 16th. Or to December 15th, 2024 versus July 14th, 2024. Even better—look at July 30th, 2023. The difference isn’t always in the shape of the cross; sometimes it’s in the location relative to the scale. It’s about where they cross, how they cross, and what the monthly chart is doing in the background. Are those monthly lines crossing too, or at least converging?

It might sound subtle, but like most things in the Market—once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

What happened last week? Forecasts called for a bounce followed by a continuation of the downtrend, with price action staying trapped between S1 and R1.

And yes, we nailed the bounce—right out of the gate at the start of the week. But honestly, I was expecting the downtrend to kick back in, especially after we tagged R1 on Thursday. Range-wise though, it behaved exactly as planned: S1 to R1 and nowhere beyond.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6521
R2	6473
R1	6448
Close	6389
S1	6199
S2	6197
S3	6196

Forecasts

What’s funny? The giant cluster of support down at 6200. To even get there, the Market would have to shed 190 points—which feels pretty unrealistic right now. But here’s the kicker: when all the supports are parked that far below, it tells you positioning is tilted to the upside… just not for a runaway rally. Profit-taking starts almost immediately above, kicking in as soon as we brush R1. So, realistically, I’m expecting the Market to keep grinding higher, with the sweet spot landing somewhere between R1 and R2. Sticky price action could hug that late-July peak, then around the 15th—when something inevitably shakes the tree—we might see volatility spike with some long, aggressive candles, setting the stage for a rollover after one more polite tap at that July high.