Seasonal Context & Events

We’re stepping into what’s effectively the final week of earnings season—technically not over, but let’s be honest, most of the meaningful reports are behind us. The Market’s next scheduled event is the monthly options expiration this coming Friday, which could add a bit of noise to otherwise calm waters. There are no holidays on the calendar and no end-of-month flows to distort price action, so whatever moves we get will be driven by positioning, sentiment, and whatever macro surprises decide to show up.

Key events include:

• 13th May 12:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 13th May 12:30UTC CPI
• 15th May 12:30 UTC PPI
• 15th May 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Most of you probably remember the COVID-19 recession—blink and it was over. But right before that late February 2020 selloff, economic indicators were still trending higher, giving zero warning of what was coming. That’s why it’s worth asking: what if a tariffs-induced recession behaves the same way? Your data might still be flashing green while the underlying damage hasn’t shown up yet.

By the end of June, I’ll revisit the year-end forecast—not because the December 31st target is gospel, but because the Market’s behavior between now and then will tell us far more. The current outlook leans toward a sluggish, downward-biased stretch from June through September (where the down is expected more in the August – September area)—nothing dramatic, but choppy enough to wear down investors and make allocation decisions tricky. That alone wouldn’t change much, but if you factor in actual supply chain disruptions from tariffs—delayed, but now arriving—it starts to reshape the risk landscape. A container from China takes roughly a month to reach U.S. shores. That clock is now ticking.

Add to that the fact that traditional indicators may not catch this kind of economic bruising, and that we’re entering August–September territory—the worst-performing stretch historically—and there’s even more reason to be cautious. April’s monthly candle was still trending down. May’s? Too early to trust—I’ll revisit that mid-month once the shape is meaningful. And as earnings wrap up next week, that final pillar propping up sentiment might start to wobble, giving June a wide-open runway for reality to settle in.

Now, let’s flip it: what if that was the bottom? Then I’m wrong. It happens. But here’s the key: if I buy stocks based on a feeling or a guess, then every outcome becomes random, and I have no way to replicate success. But if I make decisions based on indicators—on structure, trend, and actual price behavior—I can at least build something consistent. That’s why I don’t hunt for bottoms. I don’t need to catch the exact low. I care about the trend—something that can last, not something that feels clever in hindsight.

Investing isn’t about nailing turning points; it’s about navigating the road ahead with a process that can be repeated. Right now, that process says: stay patient, stay focused, and don’t confuse rebound with recovery. There’s a difference, and knowing it is where the edge lives.

What happened last week? Forecasts called it—a no-action week.

And that’s exactly what we got. No breakout, no breakdown, just sideways drift. Nothing to see here, just pure Market boredom in motion. And honestly? I’m good with that. I don’t like trading—I like investing. When nothing’s happening, it means I don’t have to put capital at risk, chase noise, or overthink setups. It also means less work for me, which is a win in itself. Sometimes, doing nothing is the most productive thing you can do in the Market.

The blue line? That’s just the 20% mark from the lowest low—nothing fancy, but it might come in handy when things start moving and people suddenly rediscover what “bear market” technically means.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5896
R2	5798
R1	5748
Close	5659
S1	5599
S2	5505
S3	5434

Forecasts

Since the last post, I ditched the whole “Up, Down, Sideways” section—but let’s be honest, those are still the only three directions the Market can take. These forecasts are built around a 5-day window—essentially, what might happen over the coming week. We just had a sideways week, before that we had two weeks of climbing, so what’s missing from the rotation? Yep, that would be down.

Now, am I locked into that view? Not at all. When I share a direction, it’s where I expect price to go—not a hill I’m dying on. The moment something tells me, “Hey, you’re wrong,” I’ll happily change my mind (thankfully, flexibility isn’t illegal).

So, am I saying the Market collapses on Monday? Doubt it. But my awareness radar is flashing a bit—there’s macro data coming next week, and if it doesn’t land where the crowd expects, it could shift sentiment fast. Big reactions? Possible. Just keep in mind they may only last a couple of days—maybe three. Could be sideways until the next DOI mentioned in the last article, and then? Brace for some movement, but don’t bet your house on its direction (especially on its duration).

EDIT 10/05/2025

S/R levels changed. Wrong data has been used previously. Ops.