Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season kicks off this week, and as usual, the first wave belongs to the Financials and Banks. Big players like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will set the tone, alongside early reports from credit card companies, insurance firms, and regional banks. It’s the classic Week 1–2 lineup.

No holidays this time around, so no excuses to skip the action. Several events are scheduled throughout the week, all conveniently pre-market.

Oh, and yes, options expirations are back this week. Let the games begin.

Key events include:

14th January 13:30UTC PPI

15th January 13:30UTC Inflation Rate + Core Inflation Rate

15th January 13:30UTC CPI

16th January 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
06/01/2025	0.46
07/01/2025	0.40
08/01/2025	0.57
10/01/2025	0.13

Well below the 0.60 area, reflecting the down of the week, with Friday almost at bottom scale.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
1.65	1.13
2.11	2.48

Readings softening compared to last week, still looking bearish.

Coherence

SP500	-2.61%
RUT	-3.79%
DJT	-0.85%

Coherent, legitimately scared, follows along.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6027
R2	5988
R1	5903
Close	5827
S1	5783
S2	5696
S3	5674

Wrap Up & Forecast

I read the news, like everyone else. Do they influence me? Maybe not consciously, but subconsciously? Probably—hard to prove otherwise. But do I care about them? Not in the slightest.

Earnings season kicks off this week, and here comes the usual mix of reactions, gap ups, and gap downs. If all those analysts predicting how the season will unfold were always right, do you think we’d even have “reactions” anymore? Hardly. If everyone truly knew everything about an equity, prices wouldn’t move—they’d just close at the so-called “real value.”

So, do I listen to analysts? Nope. Equities and Indexes already reflect everything that’s known and how it’s being interpreted—both emotionally and with actual money on the line. The Market tells the story, not the talking heads.

Let’s see how earnings unfold and let the numbers play out. After the season ends, you’ll get a clearer picture of company status and how the market interprets the data. But let’s be real—analysts are just people sitting in offices, plotting ideas about the future. Nothing more, nothing less.

What happened last week? The Market gave it a shot on Monday, trying to recover, but just didn’t have the energy to power through the cluster of resistance sitting right there. Funny enough, last week’s forecast predicted a reversal zone between 5975$ and 6000$. The close? 5975.38$. Close enough? Maybe for the 0.38$, but the range was 25$, should have been narrower.

From there, the Market started sliding again, eventually finding solid support around 5807$. My target was 5783$—still 25 points off. A bit too much to call this a “reliable blog,” so feel free to stop reading from here.

But if you’d prefer to keep on reading, here’s the deal: the Market can do three things—go up, go sideways, or go down. What’s the likelihood of each? Earnings are just around the corner, and apart from panicked or delusional traders, random events, and oh yeah, options expiration, there’s really “nothing” to worry about. Or is there?

Down? Sure, it’s possible, but with plenty of support around 5825$ and 5800$, there’s not much room left before buyers start stepping in. Sideways? Highly likely. Either low volume or that classic choppy action where you feel like a trading genius one day and a complete amateur the next. Up? Definitely on the table as well.

The Market seems like it wants to head upward but is being held hostage by indecisive participants who can’t figure out what to do next. Events in the week ahead might add some volatility, creating even more uncertainty and translating into choppier stock charts. For an uptrend to really take hold, Thursday and Friday might offer some confirmation—or maybe as early as Tuesday. Why not Wednesday, you ask? Because Wednesdays don’t vibe with me.

As for entry points, they might appear midweek, hidden somewhere in the usual noise. Or maybe they’ve already passed. Perhaps Friday was the moment? Then again, Monday could just continue Friday’s trend. Or, what if something tragic happens over the weekend, and we open at S1 around 5730$? Anything is possible—it’s all about probabilities and, more importantly, focusing on what you can actually control.

And then? Maybe an upward leg until February 18th-19th sounds plausible. But let’s be real—this won’t be all unicorns and rainbows. Corrections and sideways movements are almost guaranteed to show up along the way. Or maybe this is just wishful thinking. Only time will tell.