Seasonal Context & Events

We’re well past the bulk of earnings season now, with only stragglers left to report. No holidays on the calendar, and no end-of-month inflows or outflows to stir things up just yet. What we do have, though, is options expirations—worth flagging since we’re also rolling into the end of the quarter, which can add some extra weight to positioning. And don’t forget, it’s the third Wednesday of the month too, meaning the bond market steps onto the stage with its usual auction spotlight.

Key events include:

• 17th September 18:00UTC Fed Interest Rate Decision + Projections
• 17th September 18:30UTC Fed Press Conference
• 18th September 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

You’re in luck—two weeks in a row of technical content (which probably buys me a month off, because this one’s a pretty juicy rabbit hole).

But before diving in, we need context. First, in the last article—and more broadly—I was leaning toward an early-October rise, which investing-wise looked like a sweet spot to scoop up shares of companies you like. Then reality kicked in: looking back at the charts, medium-term frames are stretched to their limits. Translation: they need to come down before any sustainable climb resumes.

Meanwhile, as I was prepping some numbers for the end-of-year article, I started poking around with Yale Hirsch’s old chestnut: “As goes the S&P in January, so goes the year.” Yale wasn’t talking patterns, just direction. White January candle? Expect a bullish year. Red candle? Bearish year. Simple.

But my brain doesn’t leave it there. I asked myself—what if January’s patterns on the S&P 500 actually map out the rhythm of the whole year? Turns out I’m not the only one to wonder (Google tells me others have played with this too), but I reached the idea on my own (pat pat). So, I took the January 2025 price action and stretched it across all 252 expected trading days of the year. And here’s what I got…

Now, to me this is a bit of a “what the actual fuck?” moment. But before we get carried away—here’s the setup: the orange line is January 2025’s behavior stretched across the year, while the green line is the actual closing price so far.

Before you rush off and try it yourself, let me save you some time—no, I haven’t found anything this accurate before. (And yes, we’re still in September, so just because it’s been spot-on so far doesn’t mean it’ll keep batting 1.000 through year-end.) For now, I’d just call it “coincidence.” Which, let’s be honest, is the polite word we use when we can’t explain why something’s working.

But… there’s always a but, of course. What I’ve noticed is that Yale Hirsch’s idea is actually pretty accurate: white candle in January, you’ve got yourself a bullish year; red candle in January, bearish year. Simple, but surprisingly useful if you’re building out a long-term view. Beyond that? Not much. Every now and then a dip or peak in January foreshadows a move later in the year, but it’s rare and honestly more of a coin toss—half the time it even points the wrong way.

What happened last week? Well, there were no forecasts, just a range—and that range was promptly broken. Still, I can’t help but admire how nicely those S/R levels act as pinpoints. Market climbed all week, nothing dramatic to highlight—just up and away.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6664
R2	6657
R1	6623
Close	6584
S1	6442
S2	6420
S3	6398

Forecasts

Let’s tie a few threads together from what we’ve been covering here:

DJU vs. S&P 500 → DJU typically leads by ~3 months, and it’s been climbing in June/July.

No divergence → S&P 500, SPXEW, and VALUA are all aligned with higher highs and higher lows.

Yale Hirsch theory → Suggests a drop (or at least a contrarian move) from here.

Personal forecasts → Leaning bearish starting from the 19th.

Weekly indicators → Stretched high and losing steam, supported only by monthly/quarterly charts.

Net result? Two bullish points, two bearish, one neutral—the Yale wildcard. That balance tells me we’ll probably hang around here a bit longer, and if a decline does show up, it’ll be sharp and catch plenty off guard. On the S/R side, the picture isn’t exactly comforting either: heavy resistance stacked just above, while support sits far away but neatly ordered. Translation? A push into the R2–R3 block (maybe a bit choppy) looks probable to me. But hey, remember how wrong I was last week? That CAN—and WILL—happen again.