Seasonal Context & Events
Earnings season has wrapped up, and this week marks the middle of the month, bringing with it a significant options expiration that could add downward pressure to the markets. With no holidays on the calendar, the focus will remain squarely on market dynamics and technical levels.
Key events include:
18th December at 19:00 UTC FED Interest Rate Decision
18th December at 19:00 UTC FOMC Economic Projections
18th December at 19:30 UTC FED Press Conference
19th December at 13:30 UTC GDP Growth Rate
19th December at 13:30 UTC Initial Jobless Claims
20th December at 13:30 UTC Core PCE Price Index
Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.
Thermometer
Breadth
| Ratio | 0.28 |
| Line | -280 |
| Thrust | 0.21 |
Sticky to the down.
Put/Call Ratio
| OI | VO |
| 1.30 | 1.37 |
| 1.37 | 1.17 |
Slight increase, in bearish territory both.
Coherence
| SP500 | -0.52% |
| RUT | -2.97% |
| DJT | -1.03% |
Coherent, scared money, slowing down.
Support & Resistance Levels
| R3 | 6223 |
| R2 | 6185 |
| R1 | 6099 |
| Close | 6051 |
| S1 | 6029 |
| S2 | 5985 |
| S3 | 5952 |
Wrap Up & Forecast
The last forecast anticipated support around the 6000 level, and indeed, the market didn’t manage to dip below 6029. Will that level hold? We’ll see. As always, people seem to react rather than act—par for the course. It’s December, with a couple of “important” (or so they say) events on the horizon.
Now, let’s take a multi-dimensional approach: up, down, and sideways. How much room is there for an upward move, and what are the probabilities? How much room for a drop, and how likely is that? Can the market go up? Absolutely. Can it go down? Of course. Can it go sideways? Naturally. Will it go straight up? Probably not—that’s my guess.
Support remains strong around S1, but this week brings a mixed bag of catalysts. Options expiring mid-month might push the index downward, while the Fed’s decisions and GDP data could add volatility. The result? Likely a choppy week ahead. I’ll be on the sidelines, watching the chaos unfold as people get predictably slaughtered.
For a bit of fun, I’ve added a bonus drawing to the chart below. Do I like it? Not at all. Do I rely solely on it? You bet I don’t. But, like all the other lines on the chart, it serves as a handy reference point—and maybe a bit of a laugh—while I gauge how accurate (or artistic) I’ve been with my analysis.
