Seasonal Context & Events
We’re rolling into the sixth week of earnings season, but let’s be honest—the main event is pretty much over. What’s left? A few stragglers like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot taking their sweet time to report, plus a handful of small-cap names that most people won’t pay much attention to but still deserve a glance. Translation: earnings season is winding down.
Meanwhile, options expiration is lurking for next Friday, which means the usual end-of-week chaos could make an appearance. Oh, and let’s not forget the Market is taking a breather on the 17th for Washington’s Birthday—because even the algorithms need a holiday.
Key events include:
19th February 19:00UTC FOMC Minutes
20th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.
Support & Resistance Levels
| R3 | 6249 |
| R2 | 6212 |
| R1 | 6188 |
| Close | 6114 |
| S1 | 6054 |
| S2 | 6013 |
| S3 | 5962 |
Wrap Up & Forecast
Not much to dissect from last week—nothing that screamed, “Hey, here’s a fresh lesson to tattoo on your trading soul.” And yes, because knowledge isn’t something you “get” and then keep forever—it’s a treadmill, not an escalator. Someone once told me, “The difference between an expert and an amateur is just the time between mistakes.” Brutal. Accurate.
Speaking of amateurs, let’s talk about the 12th—a masterclass in why decisions should never be made at the open. Sure, you can act on a well-thought-out plan based on the previous day’s close. But jumping in just because a candle had the audacity to form? That’s a different game, and not one worth playing. Those giant gap-ups and gap-downs? They’re just a parade of traders making emotional decisions instead of sticking to a strategy. Do I like it? Do I hate it? Neither. It happens. The Market doesn’t care, and neither do I.
What happened last week? Ah, last week—where expectations met reality and promptly got ignored. I was eyeing that past Friday down move to keep rolling until the 12th, but the Market, in its infinite wisdom, decided, “Nah.” Did I lose sleep over it? Hardly. Being wrong is part of the game, and if you’re clinging to your predictions like a toddler to a security blanket, you’re setting yourself up for heartbreak. I stay detached, adjust, and keep moving.
Instead, we got a textbook sideways shuffle—until the 12th, when things finally got interesting, right on schedule. Some folks love to scream “trap!” when the Market does something they didn’t anticipate. It’s not a trap. It’s just people making emotional decisions instead of, you know, using actual evidence. If you call it a trap, what you’re really saying is, “I got played.” Own it. Learn from it. Move on.
By Thursday, price strutted above that lovely formation I sketched out with my highly advanced, borderline mystical technical analysis tools. Then Friday, the Market got a little shy—tried retesting the upper trendline, flirted with the high of 6127.47, and missed the target by a whopping $0.53. Devastating, truly—except I don’t count (or care about) pennies. Close enough is close enough.
What’s next? Guess!
Up? To where? Well, at the moment not far away there is potential for a short rise to the R1 level around 6188$.
Sideways? To me sideways means that the open on Monday will be close by to the close of Friday and it is actually a higher than past analysis probabilties.
Down? Well, for down will have to look around S2 level, but more in between S1 and S2 so between 6054$ and 6013$.
My outlook? If you’re staring at your charts like they’re speaking an alien language, congratulations—you’re in good company. Mine aren’t exactly whispering sweet nothings either. So yeah, welcome to the club.
Here’s what’s on the radar: it’s a short week, options expiration is coming up, and earnings season is fading into the background. That mix could lead to some stalling on the second trading day around R1, which means by next Friday, we might just end up right around Tuesday’s open. Exciting? Not particularly.
6200$-6250$ by February 18th? Unless the Market suddenly decides to pull off an 80-point sprint in a day, I wouldn’t bet on it. But hey, let’s check back next week and see just how accurate (or hilariously off) this forecast turns out to be.
Next stop? 6000$-6050$ by mid-March. If you’ve been following along since my first 2025 write-up, you’ll remember I’ve had my eye on the first two weeks of March for a drop. Whether the Market decides to play nice with that plan? We’ll find out soon enough.
