Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is in the rearview mirror, options expiration next Friday could add some extra downside pressure, and with no holidays or month-end flows to shake things up, the Market is pretty much left to its own devices. No artificial liquidity injections, no convenient catalysts—just pure price action doing its thing. If the trend is down, there’s not much standing in its way (or maybe there is).

Key events include:

19th March 18:00UTC FED Interest Rate Decision

19th March 18:30UTC FED Press Conference

20th March 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5829
R2	5702
R1	5657
Close	5638
S1	5475
S2	5402
S3	5351

Wrap Up & Forecast

The classic “trend reversal” chatter—like clockwork, every time the market throws a little tantrum. Suddenly, everyone’s a dip-buying guru, despite holding exactly zero cash to do so. And of course, they expect trends to flip overnight, as if Market just wakes up one morning and decides, “You know what? Enough of this downtrend nonsense.”

Sure, reversals do happen, but they usually come with a giant neon sign, not just blind hope. As I’ve pointed out before, a decent first step before screaming “reversal!” is to check if the market has at least stopped making lower highs and lower lows. Until then, all you’re doing is catching falling knives with your bare hands.

Now, intraday reversals? Different beast. Some solid signals:

• A gap-down open that closes above the previous day’s close.
• A gap-down open with a white candle, followed by a gap up the next day (a little bullish one-two punch).
• A gap-up open that clears the previous two closes, showing some actual strength instead of just a dead-cat bounce. (wink wink)

Of course, for these to mean something, you need actual support behind your theory. Because while overnight reversals can happen, they’re like spotting a unicorn—rare, and usually seasonal. And March? Not exactly reversal season.

So before blindly trusting some influencer screaming “buy the dip,” do yourself a favor—look at the chart. Because in a downtrend, every security looks like it can’t possibly go lower… right before it does. I’ll start believing in a reversal when the Market stops printing lower highs and lower lows. Until then? My cash stays right where it is.

Additional thought: Behold—the so-called “dip” that everyone is tripping over themselves to buy.

S&P 500 Market Index – Monthly Scale, Last 20 Years.

Look at it. Really look at it. Feel a little stupid now?

If you’re investing, let the charts do the work for you! Let them bottom, let them settle—then, when they actually start rising again, that’s when you buy. Simple. No need to play hero with “averaging down” or bottom fishing. More often than not, that strategy won’t just hurt your portfolio—it’ll crush your confidence. And trust me, a bruised ego is far worse than a red trade.

What happened last week? Forecasts? What forecasts? Nobody was out here making grand predictions—least of all me. Last week wasn’t about calling shots; it was about watching mid-sized charts for signs of a reversal. And until Friday, they gave us nothing (or maybe they did?). But let’s be real—just because the Market shows exhaustion doesn’t mean it’s about to rocket straight up.

Monday set the tone—price punctured S2 like a water balloon. Not a slow leak, not a controlled dip—just straight-up rupture. Tuesday and Wednesday? You could see price trying to hold the S2-S3 range, sloshing back and forth like water inside that broken balloon, pressure fluctuating. By Thursday, those oscillations picked up momentum, sending prices even lower. Then Friday arrived, and suddenly, the balloon flipped—shifting from negative pressure to positive.

Up? Yep, the explosive move from Friday could carry on, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Support is weak, so this rally might have a shelf life of 2-4 days at best. Where to? I see some resistance around R2—a logical speed bump.

Sideways? Doesn’t seem like the week for that. The market doesn’t look like it’s in the mood for a dull, range-bound grind.

Down? If the upside fizzles out, well… down it is. And fresh dip-buyers? If they start panicking, that plunge could pick up steam, sending us straight down to S2.

My outlook: For the sake of completeness—no, again, I don’t trade based on news or events. I read them, sure. I even note the ones that might matter. But do they dictate my forecasts? Absolutely not. News changes volatility and magnitude, not direction. The market already knows what it knows, and it shows it on the chart.

Now, let’s keep this short—because frankly, it doesn’t deserve a long-winded take. My next target? Somewhere around $5300, more precisely $5350. By next week? Probably not. March isn’t the month for miracles. If anything, I expect some fake reversals—little sugar highs—before the market rolls over again, especially around key events, say around the 20th.

So next week? What started may continue. For how long? My guess: until midweek, around the 20th, and around R2. After that? Another leg down seems likely to S1 or S2. But I’ll let the charts do the talking.

A real trend reversal? One that actually sticks? Not holding my breath. For my kind of trading and investing, my brokerage account might as well stay shut until the 25th. It’s not about safeguarding my money—it’s about safeguarding confidence.