Seasonal Context & Events

Let’s still call it earnings season—even if, realistically, it’s just the leftovers at this point. Most of the heavyweights have reported, and the Market’s running on fumes when it comes to earnings surprises. This week, there’s not much else on the schedule to stir the pot: no options expiration, no holidays, and no end-of-month inflows or outflows to distort the flow.

Key events include:

• 22nd May 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Just a couple things for weekend meditation—nothing technical here, so if you came for “buy here, sell here,” you can safely skip this.

How many times have you been told, “Don’t take it personally”? Me? Thousands. Funny thing is, depending on your character (go look up Jim Rohn’s definition—still the best I’ve found), you probably had to take things personally a thousand times just to finally stop taking them personally. That’s been my path: thousands, minus one.

Here’s the deal: the bad news is you will take it personally, over and over, until you’ve made the right adjustments to your own wiring. The good news? The moment you truly stop taking things personally—that’s when growth starts to show up. A genuine mistake, not driven by emotion but just part of executing your plan, gives you useful data. It tells you where you are, what needs work. To me, it also signals something deeper: you’re still in the game. You’re still trying.

Now, emotional/reactive mistakes? Those hit harder. They’re tougher to forgive. If your flight’s late and you miss an appointment—fine. If your flight’s on time but you missed the meeting because you were too busy complaining about airlines to a random stranger at the gate, well… that’s a sign it’s time to grow up.

One more thing, since people keep assuming I spend my life glued to a screen—spoiler: I don’t. I spend more time on a sofa reading books than in front of charts. Lately, I’ve been reading about willpower. And the takeaway is simple but powerful: willpower is power. It drains. And like any power source, it needs to recharge.

You use willpower more than you think—sticking to a diet, dealing with people you can’t stand, getting yourself to the gym, resisting the urge to throw your phone out the window. If you find yourself slipping on the things you know you should be doing, you might not be lazy—you might just be low on willpower. So ask yourself: how are you recharging it?

The easiest way? Rest. For me, routines have been a quiet superpower. Automating small daily decisions saves willpower. Routine might look boring to people who have no direction, but to me, it’s structure—it’s what makes the whole thing work. There are other recharges: eating right (spoiler: Coke doesn’t count), meditating, and most importantly, reminding yourself why you’re doing what you’re doing—especially the things you don’t want to do.

And yes, willpower can be trained. You can build capacity. Start small: leave your phone in the other room for ten minutes a day. Resist tiny urges. That resistance builds self-control, willpower, and—bonus—stamina.

Small habits. Big edge.

What happened last week? Forecasts were pointing down—but to make them look right, I’d have to flip my screens upside down, because the Market did the exact opposite. That said, the weekly range is still holding price firmly in check (almost).

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6093
R2	6043
R1	5997
Close	5958
S1	5896
S2	5846
S3	5749

Forecasts

In the last forecast I said, “So, am I saying the Market collapses on Monday? Doubt it.” And here’s why—because you all saw what happened over the weekend in Switzerland. Just like the April 3rd event, the outcome was fairly clear, and Market responded as expected. I got an upside signal on the 8th, closed the trades on the 13th—left some pennies on the table, sure, but I’m too busy counting the dollars to care.

Earnings season? Technically still part of May, but let’s be real—we’re basically done. What’s left is a one-and-a-half-month stretch until July earnings kick in again. And while it initially looked like a setup for a clean correction, it’s starting to smell more like sideways boredom than anything dramatic. I don’t expect any big directional move (up or down) until the last 2–3 days of the month.

My plan now? Skip next week’s noise, where sideways remains the base case, and keep an eye on the last stretch of May for something more decisive.

Remember—always keep your emotions in check. If the Market does the exact opposite of what you expected, acknowledge it, ask yourself “What did I miss?”, and move on. Your trading log will reflect your resilience—not how good your (or my) forecasts were.