Seasonal Context & Events
This marks the seventh week of earnings, noted here for reference, though the bulk of reports have already been released. There are no options expirations affecting positioning and no holidays impacting market hours or liquidity. The main factor to consider is the typical end-of-month and beginning-of-month cash flows, as funds adjust allocations and capital moves accordingly.
Key events include:
27th February 13:30UTC GDP Price Index
27th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
28th February 13:30UTC PCE Price Index
28th February 13:30UTC Personal Income & Spending
Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.
Support & Resistance Levels
| R3 | 6142 |
| R2 | 6044 |
| R1 | 6018 |
| Close | 6013 |
| S1 | 5965 |
| S2 | 5900 |
| S3 | 5866 |
Wrap Up & Forecast
Ah yes, the classic “Hey, you know stocks, what should I buy?” question. A guaranteed lose-lose scenario.
First off, let’s get one thing straight—I’d rather personally torch $10,000 learning a painful lesson than make a mediocre return because “someone told me to.” One way, you pay tuition to the market. The other, you become dependent on someone else’s (usually flawed) judgment. And reliance on others in Markets? That’s the express lane to regret.
Also, let’s talk about the social dynamics here: If they make money, you’re a genius. If they don’t, you’re a scam artist. Who needs that?
Then there’s the classic confusion—investing vs. speculating. Two completely different universes that just happen to share a few instruments. The real question is: What do you actually want? Generational wealth that compounds over decades? Or the fantasy of sipping mojitos on a beach with zero effort? Because the first is very achievable with consistent, low-maintenance investing. The second? That’s lottery-ticket nonsense peddled by dream merchants.
If they can read English, I point them to The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. Yeah, it’s old. Yeah, it doesn’t cover everything. But if they just bought ETFs tracking broad indexes once or twice a year, they’d be miles ahead of most people. Wealth isn’t hard to create—riches are.
What happened last week? Two days up, two days down—mostly as expected. But Friday? That was a bit of a curveball. My initial forecast leaned toward a more balanced move, yet Friday’s drop was bigger than anticipated. On a weekly timeframe, it looked like a doji, but let’s be real—this wasn’t the clean textbook play I had in mind. Whether news-driven or just market mechanics, the bottom line is the same: the Market doesn’t care about Miss Technical Analysis. The only small victory? We closed right around S2. Yay, precision?
Up? Some of you are panicking—“OMG, the market will crash tomorrow!” (Relax, it’s Saturday. Joking.) A full-on crash? Unlikely. But a strong rally? Also doubtful. Any upside looks limited, and if we do get a move up, I’d expect it to struggle around the R1 level—more of a psychological barrier than a technical one.
Sideways? By the end of the week, it could look like a sideways grind.
Down? Yep, that’s a real possibility. A straight drop? Maybe, maybe not.
My outlook? I see another week of movement, but by Friday, we might just end up going in circles—like a donkey turning the waterwheel at a well, working hard but going nowhere. In short, I still expect downside to continue until the 25th, with a possible bounce starting on the 26th, potentially running up until March 3rd.
Since all S/R levels are once again outside the forecasted range of movement for the week… the blue dotted lines make their grand return!
6200$-6250$ by February 18th? The first appearance of that target was on the January 10, 2025 article. As that article stated:
“And then? Maybe an upward leg until February 18th-19th sounds plausible. But let’s be real—this won’t be all unicorns and rainbows. Corrections and sideways movements are almost guaranteed to show up along the way.”
Fast forward, and the highest high arrived on February 19th— close, but let’s not break out the champagne just yet. The peak? 6147$—a solid attempt, but 53 bucks short of the lower bound. A 1% miss might be “close enough” for some, but for those chasing excellence, it didn’t quite hit the mark. The call was 6200$-6250$, and price needed to step into that range—not hover outside like a hesitant party guest.
Next up? 5975$-5925$ by 11th March. March might not be throwing many trading opportunities, but if the setup holds, March 11th could be prime time for some strategic long-term accumulation. Let’s see if this one lands more precisely.
