Seasonal Context & Events
With earnings season in the rearview mirror and no looming options expirations to shake things up, next week looks like a pure supply-and-demand battleground. Monthly inflows and outflows will dictate the tape, with no holiday disruptions to provide an artificial lull.
Key events include:
- 27th March 12:30UTC GDP Price Index
- 27th March 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
- 28th March 12:30UTC PCE Price Index
- 28th March 12:30 Personal Income & Spending
Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.
The Trading Week Recap
Candle wick—a tiny battlefield where retail dreams and institutional indifference collide. Most of the time (not always, but often enough), these wicks are the footprints of retail traders chasing momentum, only to get steamrolled by the Market’s indifference to their enthusiasm.
Take March 19th, post-FED meeting. That glorious upper wick? A monument to those who took Powell’s words as gospel and hit “buy” at the worst possible moment. What happened next? The Market shrugged, retraced, and left them holding the bag. Not exactly the dream trade.
Want to spot more retail-driven wicks? Look at the recent downtrend—lower wicks on Feb 25th, March 3rd, and others. If they were signs of real buying pressure, the Market would’ve turned around. Spoiler: it didn’t. That’s why those wicks are more likely retail traders trying to catch the knife than institutions making a move.
Now, does that mean you always have to wait for confirmation before acting? Not necessarily. Sometimes, the difference between retail and “smart money” is obvious in real-time. A couple of standout examples? August 5th and September 11th, 2024.
Look at August 5th and September 11th, 2024—if you really break down the price action, you’ll see the contrast. One is wishful thinking, the other is capital at work. I won’t spell it out for you (where’s the fun in that?), but trust me, once you see it, you can’t unsee it.
What happened last week? The playbook seemed straightforward enough: the 14th March rally had momentum, was expected to carry on for another 2-4 days, and had its sights set on R2. The script even accounted for a decline after hitting R2. Simple, right?
Monday came in all hot and bothered, giving R2 a little wink—but no follow-through. Just vibes.
Tuesday? Opened right at R1, then promptly ghosted the bulls and sold off like someone saw a ghost in CPI data. So much for momentum.
Wednesday got frisky again, poking its head above R2. But instead of a breakout, we got more of a soggy balloon pop—just enough to get hopes up and then leave a mess on the floor. Not exactly the kind of breakout you frame and hang on your trading wall. It had that “something feels off” energy—the kind that makes your trading gut quietly start packing an overnight bag.
Thursday, déjà vu. Another R2 tag, another rejection. Sellers camped out at that level like they knew the VIP list wasn’t changing. And yeah, if one were the type to squint at intraday charts (we’re not, but let’s pretend), you’d probably spot a cute little double top forming. You know the one: price hits resistance, retreats, comes back for a second kiss, gets slapped again. And if you really cared about precision (which we obviously don’t, but we love pretending), you’d do that whole “measure the distance from the highs to the dip in between” thing and subtract it from the neckline around $5480 to get your target. Math magic. Google it. Or don’t.
Friday? Still sticky around R2 like a fly in a jar of old honey. Not bullish, not bearish—just indecisive enough to drive everyone mildly insane.
In short: the market’s been side-eyeing R2 all week like it wants to break up, but can’t quite send the text.
Support & Resistance Levels
| R3 | 5805 |
| R2 | 5757 |
| R1 | 5670 |
| Close | 5667 |
| S1 | 5621 |
| S2 | 5546 |
| S3 | 5499 |
Forecasts
Up? Sure, anything’s possible—but I wouldn’t bet the lunch money on a big move higher. If we do climb, it’s likely to be a limp shuffle, maybe sticky around the R1 level like price action stuck in molasses. Not exactly a rocket.
Sideways? Absolutely on the table. Especially when you look at how the support and resistance levels are practically mirroring each other. That’s classic indecision—like the market’s standing in front of the closet wondering what to wear to nowhere.
Down? Now this one’s got some legs. Could be a polite slide, could be a slap—depends on the mood. Either way, a drift down toward S2 seems very much in the realm of reasonable, especially if the current sleepwalk starts to tilt.
My outlook: Last week’s forecasts had their hearts set on a drop kicking off midweek, aiming for a scenic stop around $5,350. That target? Now looking like one of those “would’ve been nice” scenarios—unless, of course, something spooks the herd hard enough to cause a full-blown stampede.
I always keep both doors open—up and down—so I’m not canceling the downside invite entirely. But $5,350? It’s starting to feel more like a bedtime story than a price target, barring some Market-rattling catalyst.
What’s caught my eye lately is the squeeze in support and resistance levels. They’re closing in on each other like two over-caffeinated toddlers fighting over the same toy. Even better? They’re mirroring. Which usually means the market’s in full “flip a coin” mode. No one’s driving. Everyone’s guessing.
As for me? If I had to place a bet, I’d say we drift with a soft belly until the 25th—maybe test S2 just to keep the edge alive. But after that, something might nudge the market northbound into month-end. Then, around April 7th? Could be fireworks. Something sudden, maybe even aggressive, as earnings season decides to crash the party and pretend it’s the main event.
