Seasonal Context & Events

We’re in the last stretch of earnings season—so let’s be honest, we can call it over. No options expiration on the calendar, no holidays to slow things down. But keep an eye out toward the back half of the week, when end-of-month inflows and outflows may start to creep into the Market and add a little extra push or drag.

Key events include:

• 28th August 12:30UTC GDP
• 28th August 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

This week was supposed to be about a technical topic, but I literally didn’t have the time to both flesh out the concept and test if it was even worth sharing. It looks “tasty” on paper, but before I write about it—and definitely before pretending to be the first one to do so—I’d rather see it in action myself. Come back next week, apologies in advance.

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for a red week with the 22nd circled on the calendar—pretty much nailed it. Pat on the head, move along.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6554
R2	6522
R1	6499
Close	6466
S1	6316
S2	6297
S3	6256

Forecasts

No, I definitely wasn’t expecting that kind of surge on Friday—anyone who says “oh yeah, it was obvious” is flat-out lying. Sure, the 22nd was marked as the only DOI for August, but that pop had way more juice in it than I’d priced in.

Looking ahead, I did expect some upside from the 22nd onward, but since that move already baked in a dose of enthusiasm, there may not be much fuel left in the tank. I’m still leaning bullish into next week, but let’s keep it realistic: resistance kicks in hard around 6522–6554. Could we gap up and rip through it? Possible. But I’m not in the business of guessing gaps. My forecast? A push to R1, maybe even R2, before momentum stalls out as the excitement cools. The “anticipation trade” has already been bought—realization probably won’t come until around September 17th. Will we climb all the way there? Not entirely convinced.