Seasonal Context & Events

The 3rd week of earnings season is here, bringing reports from sectors like Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples—classic mid-season players. Big names like Microsoft and Tesla are set to release earnings next week, so keep an eye on the calendar for those. With no holidays or options expirations to distract us, all eyes will shift to the Fed’s Interest Rate decision on the 29th. Add in the usual end-of-month inflows and outflows from both retail and professional investors, and you’ve got a recipe for some interesting Market moves. Let’s see how it all unfolds!

Key events include:

29th January 19:00UTC FED Interest Rate Decision

29th January 19:30UTC FED Press Conference

30th January 14:30UTC GDP Price Index

30th January 14:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

31st January 14:30UTC Personal Income & Spending

31st January 14:30UTC PCE Price Index

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
20/01/2025	0.67
21/01/2025	0.82
22/01/2025	0.34
23/01/2025	0.65
24/01/2025	0.49

Started getting out of the 0.60-1.00 area.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
3.39	1.67
3.30	0.97

Building up on low volume.

Coherence

SP500	+1.44%
RUT	+0.93%
DJT	+0.75%

Coherent to the up, profits taking, driven.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6258
R2	6256
R1	6245
Close	6101
S1	5958
S2	5927
S3	5909

Wrap Up & Forecast

I was expecting a pause last week, followed by a resumption of the uptrend by week’s end. Instead? No pause—just a straight shot upward. When I make mistakes like this, I always ask myself, “How could I have known?” This question forces me to review what I might have missed or misinterpreted. If I find something, I take note. If not, I revisit my journal every six months and ask myself again: “Do I know now?” If the answer is still no, I keep at it. Does this sound obsessive? Maybe. But in the lawless world of the Market, you have to make your own rules—and, more importantly, stick to them. Everyone’s good at making rules; following them is another story (reminds me of politics). If you’re looking for guidance, I highly recommend The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. It’s best read after one to three years of messing up in the Market—because let’s face it, without the pain and sacrifice, it just won’t hit the same.

Now, on to serious matters—what happened last week?

A relentless rise straight to the up stalling in between R1 and R2, that’s what happened. So relentless, in fact, that any indicators you might use would’ve been screaming “Extreme!” or flashing a metaphorical “Low oxygen at this altitude!” From a seasonal and contextual perspective, which week would have had a higher probability of a pause: last week or the coming week? It’s easy to see now, in hindsight. But forecasting isn’t hindsight, and maybe I should have read my indicators better or projected them into the week ahead with a clearer understanding of the seasonal and event-driven context. Do I know where I went wrong? Yes. Do I care? Of course—learning from mistakes is part of the game. Do I take it personally? Not anymore. I’ve stopped taking it personally—I just tweak my approach and move forward. As the book wisely puts it: “The Market doesn’t hurt you; you let it hurt you. It has no control over you, and you have no control over it. It’s not your opponent, and you’re not its enemy.”

So, what about next week? The usual options are on the table: up, sideways, or down.

The Market has been climbing in a straight line, stalling between R1 and R2, which seem to be putting up quite the fight. What does that tell us? The Market might be gearing up for a pause in its upward move. If that’s true, the likely scenarios are either sideways or down—because up has already had its turn.

For sideways, I’d expect the Market to hold between the recent high and the 6000$ level (blue dashed lines in the chart). For down, I’d be looking lower, around the 5950$-5970$ zone, or to use a reference, S1 . That said, the Market rarely goes straight down right after a strong rally, so what I see shaping up at the moment is a small range-bound behavior between 6100$ and 6000$. I’d anticipate a dip somewhere starting around February 5th-7th going to S1 area, followed by a resumption of the uptrend around February 10th-12th.

Why, you ask? Magic? Maybe. But more likely, it’s the result of thousands of hours spent staring at charts instead of scrolling through reels on my phone. And the fact that I still make mistakes only means one thing: I’ll keep doing it.

What if it goes up? Well, all the R levels are above 6200$, which technically means no resistance at all. Practically, though, there might be some famous Bands tightening things up and restricting any upward moves for now. Classic Market—you’ve got to love the contradictions.

In the article “10/01/2025: The Week Ahead” I mentioned a target of 6250$-6300$ by mid-February. That target still stands. Let’s see if the Market plays along.