Seasonal Context & Events

We’re right in the thick of earnings season now, with some of the heavyweights set to report next week—expect the headlines (and maybe the volatility) to pick up. There are no options expirations or holidays on the schedule to muddy the waters, so it’s all about the earnings reaction. Keep in mind, though, we do have end-of-month inflows and outflows in play, which could add a little extra noise to the tape as funds shuffle their books.

Key events include:

• 29th April 14:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 30th April 12:30UTC GDP
• 30th April 14:00UTC PCE
• 30th April 14:00UTC Personal Income
• 30th April 14:00UTC Personal Spending
• 01st May 12:300UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 02nd May 12:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Yep, a bit late because, well, life happens—and nowhere around here is it written that this is “the perfect blog.” Perfection? Let’s talk about that for a second, because last week didn’t exactly give us much else to chew on. Everyone’s out there hunting for the perfect trade, the perfect setup, the perfect “this is it” moment. Took me a few years to realize it, but my trading only really improved when I stopped chasing perfection and started doing one simple thing: cutting losses.

Whatever your time horizon is for a trade (trading, not investing), ask yourself—if it’s not moving in your favor after X time, what are you doing? Personally, I close it. Most people like to play the hope game: “Oh, it’ll turn back soon,” or worse, “I’m already down 50%, might as well ride it to 100%.” Bad idea. A 50% loss isn’t the same as a 100% loss—and showing yourself you can be disciplined is way more important than praying for a miracle.

When to cut it? That’s on you. If your horizon is three months, don’t panic over three bad days. It’s about finding your own line between “be patient” and “stop the bleeding.” I don’t use stop losses myself—don’t like them, don’t need them, not for the stuff I trade. My job is to know when to get out or stay in, not leave it up to an automated trigger.

Looking back at my own trading logs, the real turning point wasn’t more winners—it was cutting the losers faster and cleaner. Less time, less bleeding, way better results. Statistically, my gains didn’t spike because I hit more home runs, but because I stopped swinging at bad pitches and standing there hoping.

If you’re new to this, here’s the short version: put your ego aside. You’re not going to be perfect. You don’t need 100% wins—you need a solid 70–80% win rate and the guts to cut the trash fast. That’s where the real edge starts.

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for a rise, but with caution—specifically watching for any close above the April 9th high, which would’ve signaled a real continuation.

Monday didn’t exactly scream bullish, but S1 and S2 held strong. Tuesday opened with a gap up and closed above the mini-gap from Friday to Monday. Wednesday brought the first real attempt to break the April 9th high, and Thursday finally punched through, closing right on R2. Friday? R2 flipped into solid support and helped push prices even higher.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5699
R2	5652
R1	5617
Close	5525
S1	5368
S2	5348
S3	5345

Forecasts

Up?
Yeah, it still leans up—but momentum’s definitely fading. And let’s not forget about that lovely clusterfuck of resistance looming overhead.

Sideways?
Could happen. By the end of the week, we might just be spinning in circles and going nowhere fast.

Down?
Also possible, but support looks pretty packed right underneath. Any downside move might struggle to really get going.

My Outlook:
When you factor in upcoming earnings releases, some heavyweight macro data, short-term indicators looking tired, and a bunch of retail traders trapped above (orange circle, anyone?), it feels like the real action might have to wait until next week.