Seasonal Context & Events

Technically, it’s the official start of earnings season—so watch for major corporate headlines coming down the pipeline. There are no options expirations this week, but keep in mind the holiday on the 4th: Markets will close early on the 3rd and remain shut on the 4th. We’re also sitting at both end-of-quarter and end-of-month—so expect some potential volatility from options rolling over and cash flows shifting as funds rebalance. It’s a tricky week: clean on options, but earnings, holiday timing, and quarter‑end flows all lining up could squeeze the tape in unexpected ways.

Key events include:

• 01st July 14:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 03rd July 12:30UTC Unemployment Rate
• Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Couple of non-technical thoughts for the week—mostly reminders I like to repeat to myself, especially now that it’s summer and I find myself more often chasing sunlight than setups.

Before diving into charts, I run two quick internal diagnostics. The first is what I call the “Brain Check”—a quick audit of my emotions and energy levels. I ask myself how I’m feeling, how drained I am, how sharp or foggy my head is. If the day’s been garbage, odds are my alertness is too—and that’s when stupid trades tend to sneak in. This check gives me a read on what’s going on under the hood and also hands me back a bit of control. If something’s off emotionally, I write it down. Putting feelings on paper somehow tames them—either neutralizes them or at least brings them within manageable limits.

The second check is what I call “The Sync Check.” I write out what I expected the Market to do, and then I compare it to what the Market is actually doing. If they match, great—I open the charts. If not, I try to understand why. And if I can’t figure it out? I walk. I close the charts and step away. No exceptions. Why? Because unmet expectations create frustration, and frustration invites cognitive dissonance. Those two, together, are a cocktail for bad decisions—and I’ve been down that road before. It ends with regret and blown trades, every time. Not interested in repeating that experiment.

Now, for a little confession. That turn on the 23rd? Nailed it in the forecast. Did I act on it? Not at all. I was out of sync and halfway into a long weekend. Do I regret it? Nope. I expect to take a dozen trades per year, give or take. And I’d rather take six trades that actually work than twelve that just look good on entry but go nowhere. As I’ve said before—and will keep repeating—the first step to making money is simply to stop losing it. In June, I made zero trades. Zero gains. But the discipline it took to do nothing when the temptation was high? That was a win. The ability to walk away when you’re not in the zone—that’s real growth. And the satisfaction that comes from not forcing it? That’s worth more than any quick percentage pop. It tells me something’s shifted—that I’ve actually internalized a few lessons from the faceplants of the past. Trading-wise, June was my best month this year. No profits, just pure discipline—and honestly, that feels better than chasing green. Meanwhile, on the investing side? Quiet record high on the P/L. No complaints here.

What happened last week? Come on—you don’t need me to spell it out. Even the imaginary dog I don’t own could’ve been more accurate.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6273
R2	6236
R1	6203
Close	6173
S1	6033
S2	6020
S3	5997

Forecasts

Originally, I planned to release both an end‑of‑month and yearly forecasts update—after all, it’s also the end of the quarter, so I’d normally adjust the annual target one last time. But I held off. Here’s why:

If you remember the first 2025 article, I forecasted a rise in early July, followed by a decline in the last two weeks. Now it looks like the upside rally that started around June 23rd matches that expectation—and with the final DOI for June on the 27th, I’d rather wait a few more days for clarity before revising anything.

If this June surge was the start of what should’ve happened in early July, then a pullback is likely sometime in the first two weeks—though I don’t expect another April‑level correction. Would I take it? Sure. But realism says: not that intense.

Another point: summer’s always hectic for me, so I’m not always in sync with the Market. That’ll probably cause more “meh” forecasts like last week’s—too short, too quick.

But enough excuses—what’s the setup for next week? We’re sitting at new all-time highs, which tends to be catnip for retailers… and the perfect exit cue for smart money. So what’s next? Likely a pause—some digestion—before another push higher in the second week of July. Unless something dramatic yanks the Market down to S1, I’m expecting a bit of hovering around R1 and R2 for now. Support levels below are solid, so the Market’s going to need a pretty compelling reason to crack through them.

DOIs for July are: 7th, 15th, 23rd, 31st!