Seasonal Context & Events
Earnings season is over, and with it goes the usual magic lift that tends to prop things up. If you take a step back and look at the January and February monthly candles, how would you define this past earnings season? For me, it wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t anything spectacular either—just a market digesting numbers without much of a knockout punch. Now, we’re in a stretch with no major options expirations, no holidays to distort flows, and nothing artificial holding things up or pushing them down. That said, early-month inflows and outflows can still have their say, so while the calendar may be quiet, the Market isn’t necessarily asleep.
Key events include:
03rd March 15:00UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI
05th March 15:00UTC ISM Services PMI
06th March 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
07th March 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate
Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.
Support & Resistance Levels
| R3 | 6102 |
| R2 | 6087 |
| R1 | 6040 |
| Close | 5954 |
| S1 | 5820 |
| S2 | 5795 |
| S3 | 5694 |
Wrap Up & Forecast
The crypto circus—where every dip is a “healthy correction” and every rally is “just the beginning.” I don’t follow it, don’t trade it, and frankly, don’t care. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad instrument; it just means I have no interest. But the sheer delusion around BTC’s “inevitable moon mission” never fails to make me laugh.
Still remember late November, talking with a friend about BTC: “Nah man, that thing will have to go down around 78k-80k before going up.” And sure enough, here we are (not done yet). One of the reasons I stay away from crypto? Too many amateurs moving way too much money. It’s like watching kids drive sports cars—thrilling, reckless, and bound to end in a wreck.
“Well, how did you know it was going to go down if you don’t follow it?”
Simple—I do follow COIN and MSTR, and they weren’t exactly strapping in for liftoff. If the supposed “big BTC run” was so inevitable, those two should’ve been showing signs of a countdown, not floating aimlessly in zero gravity. Sometimes, you don’t need to stare directly at the sun to know if it’s shining—you just check the shadows.
“Well then, how did you set that target if you don’t follow it?”
Easy—big time frame chart, weekly and monthly. A couple of simple moving averages, a couple of indicators. Took me literally two seconds. You don’t need to be a crypto disciple to spot an obvious level.
Offended? Guess what, the sun still rises tomorrow. Markets don’t care, and neither do I.
It honestly annoys me that I even had to mention crypto in my blog, but let’s be real—I needed to release some of that laughing pressure from my November forecast. Watching it play out exactly as expected? Too good to keep bottled up. Promise, next week I’ll talk about something actually interesting. It will (most likely) be about the dangers of trading or investing while being swayed by external noise (being biased)—because, let’s be honest, the Market already has enough ways to humble you without adding bias to the mix.
What happened last week? Last week started off like a well-behaved student following the syllabus—Monday hit S1, Tuesday checked in at S2, all very textbook. Then, from the 25th, we entered the great indecision phase, where a bounce was the anticipated move. But on the 26th? Oh no, not on Mr. Market’s watch. An initial attempt to rise was swiftly smothered by selling pressure, a classic “nice try” moment.
Instead of the expected bounce, we took the scenic route straight to S3 on the 27th. And just when everyone had resigned themselves to doom, the last three hours of Friday decided to stage a comeback. Was that the bounce? A little late to the party, but hey, fashionably late is still an entrance.
Bonus trivia: The January 15th gap? Closed. The levels? Pretty spot on. The direction? Well… let’s just say “wrong” is a strong word—let’s go with “unexpectedly creative.” Lessons learned, move on. Next chart, please.
Up? Sure, one of the three inevitable choices. But how far? Oxygen looks plentiful up to R1—beyond that, we might be gasping for air.
Sideways? Not my top probability this week. But the Market does what it wants. If it drifts sideways instead of following the script, you adapt. Stubborn traders donate; flexible ones survive.
Down? If we slide, it won’t be pretty (at least for your Unrealized P/L, but who cares if you hold actual companies and not assets that produce, well… nothing? No offense, of course). My guess? S2 or lower.
My outlook: My bias? Down. Is that my Ego talking? No clue, but my inner voice won’t shut up about it. And honestly, I prefer my trades without unsolicited commentary from my subconscious. Had to warn you, I do not like to be biased, I like to have both options up and down (and sideways of course).
03/01/2025 article said “[…] Some corrections are expected around the first two weeks of March (around 200 points, give or take), which could present another solid ‘buy-and-hold’ opportunity. Beyond that, the Market is expected to rise until around mid-July[…]”
Momentum still seems to have some downward energy left (or so my bias insists), but I could see a short bounce into next week, maybe stalling at R1. Then what? March 4th-5th might bring the next leg down. If we sink further, we’re basically time-traveling to November 2024, cozying up to the ~$5700 zone. That, of course, would throw a wrench into the clean “January 13th was the low” storyline. So much for narrative simplicity.
A straight-line drop through March? Doubt it. I still see this selloff wrapping up around the 11th-12th. But just because selling cools off doesn’t mean buyers are stampeding in. If we’re talking real upside, patience is key—March 25th looks more promising for that. Until then, we watch, we adapt, and we brace for the Market’s next plot twist.
