Seasonal Context & Events

Technically April is earnings season, but let’s not kid ourselves—things don’t really start cooking until the second week. Until then, it’s mostly pre-show murmurs and recycled optimism. There are no option expirations to stir the pot either, so volatility might be taking a long lunch. Still, don’t discount the quiet push and pull of monthly inflows and outflows—those autopilot 401(k)s and pension rebalancers (watch also for corporate pensions contributions – end of March) can nudge the tape just enough to make traders squint at their screens. No holidays this time around, so we get a full, uninterrupted stretch of watching paint dry… until the real numbers hit.

Key events include:

• 01st April 14:00UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 01st April 14:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 03rd April 14:00UTC ISM Services PMI
• 04th April 12:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

When something unexpected happens, my instinct is always the same: “How could I have known?” I’m specifically referring to that gap-up open on Monday.

Technical Analysis-wise, yes, there was an indicator close to crossing a key level—something I’d been reminding myself about for two weeks: “Don’t act on emotion, wait for the confirmation!” Well, it did cross. But aside from that short-term boost, there wasn’t much support from higher timeframes (and if you jumped in early, well, hopefully it was more of a paper cut than a full-blown wound). Meanwhile, on smaller timeframes, the same indicator started whipsawing—almost like horizontal spring-loading, suggesting it was ready to move. Still, the fact that it all played out in a single day reinforced a familiar lesson: one-day moves mean little if higher timeframes aren’t aligned.

But there’s another angle—something that was in my notes, though to be honest, it’s the kind of background knowledge you don’t lean on often, so most of the time you kind of forget you even know it. Naturally, it only really clicks after the fact. It’s tied more to options expiration (OpEx) and end-of-quarter dynamics. Let’s walk through that:

• Bonds vs. Market: A strong white quarterly candle for bonds (TLT, AGG, or whichever you track) while the equity market posts a red one? That divergence can be telling, somebody may need to balance that.
• Fund Managers: Rebalancing season. There’s often a bit of window-dressing—rotating into popular or “safe” names to make portfolios look impressive. Volatility tends to spike in the usual suspects (e.g., Magnificent 7).
• Corporate Pension Contributions: March is a key month for this, and it often brings a bullish bias as those flows hit the Market.
• Triple Witching: End-of-quarter expirations for stocks, indexes, and futures. It happens every quarter, but March tends to punch harder.

Looking back, bonds outperformed equities last quarter. High-profile names had been under pressure for a month or two. Corporate contributions and OpEx timing aligned. Put all that together, and the Monday gap starts to look a bit less random.

But here’s the thing: while these macro flows and calendar quirks are nice to know, they’re not my main compass. They help contextualize, not predict. I still trust the charts first—they’re clearer, and they don’t require detective work.

What happened last week? Forecasts had penciled in a calm little dip down to S2, followed by a graceful pivot upward toward a modest R1. You know, polite price action.

Well… flip that script upside down, and voilà—that’s what actually happened.

Instead of drifting lower to S2, price charged up to R2 like it had somewhere to be. And instead of climbing gently to R1 afterward, it promptly tripped and tumbled right back down between S1 and S2. A neat little inversion of expectations. What can you say? There’s a first time for everything—including comically reversed forecasts like this one. The Monday gap? Closed.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5929
R2	5865
R1	5788
Close	5580
S1	5497
S2	5445
S3	5298

Forecasts

Up? For those of you still loyally clinging to your long positions—bless your optimism—an up week isn’t exactly topping my list of probable outcomes. That said, if we do get some upside action (and yes, that’s a capital-I if), I’d be eyeing a target somewhere around R1. Manage expectations accordingly.

Sideways? The whole “down” move is starting to feel a bit overcooked—overblown, overreacted, and over basically everything else. If the market manages to chill out by week’s end, sure, we might limp into Friday with some sideways, saggy price action. But honestly? Daily volatility still looks pretty elevated to me—way too jumpy for those neat little low-range candles. So expect more drama, less nap time.

Down? Well, it does look that way! But a clean break below the March 13th low—or even just slipping under S1—would be a not-so-subtle hint that, yep, there’s still more downside queued up and waiting for its turn.

My outlook: I’ve marked a formation—yes, a “formation,” spare me the naming drama. It resembles something, and that’s all that matters. Price closed below it, which more or less gives the bears the green light. Now, a few things worth pointing out: Monday’s gap? Feels suspiciously artificial (scroll up for the tinfoil hat portion). Friday’s candle? Just the crowd doing its usual knee-jerk to data.

Now, let’s not forget we’re one week out from earnings season kickoff, meaning if the market’s going to plunge, those reports better come in both spicy and disastrous. Will they? I have no idea—and neither do you. But I will be paying attention: if price prints a lower low than March 13th, that’s when the alarm bells start ringing.

That said, the event calendar hints at a potential double bottom—though to validate that, we’d need a close above March 25th. So maybe hold the FOMO. As for Monday? Could just be a sequel to Friday, unless folks spend the weekend doomscrolling through headlines (which, let’s face it, never helped anyone’s P&L).

Personally, I’m eyeing (or maybe just manifesting) a bounce before we breach the March 13th low. If not, buckle up for another decent leg down. Just remember: to break a downtrend, you need good old-fashioned higher lows and higher highs. If the next low holds above the last? Could be your cue to start “shopping” while everything’s on clearance.

Yearly Forecasts Updates

Time to do a quick check on the January 2025 forecast (click to open the article) and see how it’s aging.

“[…] From a longer-term (year-ly) perspective, the so-called “2025 apocalypse” was a popular call—guilty as charged. However, this is likely to mark the bottom for the entire year. Some corrections are expected around the first two weeks of March (around 200 points, give or take), which could present another solid ‘buy-and-hold’ opportunity. Beyond that, the Market is expected to rise until around mid-July, where a sideways-to-down phase (less than 200 points) might take over, lasting until the final days of August.[…]”

First up: the January-bottom call. That one’s already out. March 13th printed a lower low at $5,504, so the January low can’t be the bottom—time doesn’t run in reverse. That part of the forecast is invalid, no matter what the rest of the year does.

Correction timing? Off by a bit. The forecast said “first two weeks of March,” but the decline kicked off on February 20th—seven trading days earlier. Close in the bigger picture, but still technically off. To be fair, calling exact turns months in advance is more art than science, and this was within range. And for what it’s worth, the current bottom landed on March 13th—comfortably nestled inside that “first two weeks of March” window, so the forecast didn’t completely miss the party.

Magnitude? Way off. Forecast expected a 200-point dip. The actual drop? $642 peak to trough. So, direction right, size wrong. The difference probably came from surprise factors no one could’ve priced in back in January. That’s just how it goes sometimes.

Next point on the radar is mid-July to end of August, which is expected to be a relatively tame, sideways-to-down phase. I’ll circle back around then—if I remember.

Target remains $7,200. No reason to change it just yet. We’re in “wait and see” mode now.

If this article sparked a brain cell or two, you can say ‘Thanks’—ideally while caffeinating and pretending you’ve got this whole Market thing figured out. For the bureaucratic dance that makes it all possible, the Disclaimer page awaits with vague assurances and legal jargon no one actually reads.