Seasonal Context & Events
Earnings season has concluded, shifting the market’s focus to macroeconomic indicators and broader trends.
The end-of-month outflows and early-month inflows are expected to balance each other, creating a stable market environment as new capital enters in December.
With no holidays next week, trading will proceed on a regular schedule, ensuring consistent volumes and activity.
The absence of significant options expirations means volatility from gamma positioning is unlikely, keeping the market calmer barring unexpected news.
Key events include:
FED Chair Powell’s speech on December 4th at 18:45 UTC
Initial Jobless Claims on December 5th at 13:30 UTC
Unemployment Rate report on December 6th at 13:30 UTC.
These could influence market sentiment and direction.
Thermometer
Breadth
| Ratio | 3.17 |
| Line | 259 |
| Thrust | 0.75 |
All 3 show a decline compared to last week.
Put/Call Ratio
| OI | VO |
| 1.12 | 1.26 |
| 1.25 | 0.46 |
Small variation in both, highlighting an increase in calls trading.
Coherence
| SP500 | +0.67% |
| RUT | +0.65% |
| DJT | +0.92% |
Alligned, coherent, responsible.
Support & Resistance Levels
| R3 | 6179 |
| R2 | 6119 |
| R1 | 6077 |
| Close | 6032 |
| S1 | 5987 |
| S2 | 5727 |
| S3 | 5005 |
Wrap Up & Forecast
The market is trading near R1, with a possibility—but not a certainty—of low volume as it awaits key events next week. A rise to R1 is likely, setting up a reaction point. If the reaction is positive, the target could shift to R2. However, if the reaction is negative, a decline toward S1 or an eye-balled support near $5950 is possible. The familiar market sentiment of “buy the rumor, sell the news” may come into play, potentially leading to a pullback if expectations are unmet. Next week’s events will be critical in determining the direction, and traders should prepare for volatility around key levels.
