Seasonal Context & Events

We’re deep into earnings season now, wrapping up the Financials-heavy first half and heading into the third and fourth weeks—prime time for Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples to take the stage. Expect the spotlight to shift, but don’t expect much else to stir the pot—no options expirations, no holidays, and no end-of-month flows to distort the picture. It’s just pure earnings vs. expectations, clean and unfiltered.

Key events include:

• 24th April 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Just a couple of things this week—keeping it short (short week, right?).

First, take a look at what happened to UNH when expectations had to be “adjusted downward.” Now zoom out and imagine that on a broader scale—across sectors, not just a single stock. What if that’s the setup for July and August? Earnings season part two, but with softer guidance and a macro backdrop that’s more fog than forecast. Who knows—but the seed’s planted.

Second, this page shows the Buffett Ratio, and as it reports: “Danger Zone” range where a major correction could be expected if history rhymes. Based on the current trajectory, that range sits around 208.35% – 232.65%. Will it hold? Taking the FTW5000’s all-time high of $61,667.52 on February 19th, 2025, and matching it with the latest GDP data from March 27th ($29,723.864B), we get a ratio of 207.47%—just under the threshold. And wouldn’t you know it, that’s right when the current slide kicked off.

So, where’s the bottom? According to my Casio calculations, a more historically sustainable range (151%–167%) would put the FTW5000 between $48,500 and $45,000. We’ve already dropped below the top end, hitting $48,128.27 on April 7th—squarely in the range.

Will we hit $45,000? I don’t know. But we’re already in the neighborhood.

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for a rise into that lovely clusterfuck of resistance above, followed by a drop back to S1.

I had priced in high volatility—but didn’t account for the short week and the fact that volatility was actually cooling off. So what did we get? A move that fell just short of R1 on the way up, and shy of S1 on the way down. Still—movement, direction, and timing were on point. Magnitude? Slightly off. Close enough for government work.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5585
R2	5495
R1	5436
Close	5282
S1	5129
S2	5092
S3	4998

Forecasts

Up?
Definitely on the table—but for anything meaningful, I’d want to see a close above last week’s highest high at $5,459. Until then, it’s just noise with ambition.

Sideways?
Large timeframe indicators are bottoming out, and momentum is fading—which ironically makes this the worst of the three options. Flat markets with tired indicators? That’s a recipe for frustration, not opportunity.

Down?
Also a possibility, but same rule applies as with the upside—I want to see a clean break out of the two-week range first. The S1–S2 zone looks solid enough to slow down a weak bearish move, but let’s not assume it’s impenetrable.

My Outlook:
Honestly? It leans bullish to me. But let’s be real—we don’t have a close above the April 9th high yet. The structure so far is a high (April 9), a low, another high (April 14) roughly at the same level—so no higher high—and then another low on April 16. If we fail to break that April 9th high, that’s not strength, that’s a warning shot. And if that happens, well… time to start looking down again. So yes, the forecast is up—but if it doesn’t deliver, expect the market to hand you the alternate ending. Simple enough, right?