Seasonal Context & Events

Technically, we’re still in earnings season—but let’s be honest, it’s basically over. What’s left are just the stragglers wrapping things up in the final stretch. There are no options expirations this week, but take note: the Market will be closed on Monday, which shortens the trading week. We’ll also see end-of-month inflows and outflows come into play, adding a bit of flow-driven movement as funds rebalance and portfolios get cleaned up.

Key events include:

• 28th May 18:00UTC FOMC Minutes
• 29th May 12:30UTC GPD
• 29th May 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 30th May 14:30UTC PCE Price Index
• 30th May 14:30UTC Personal Income
• 30th May 14:30UTC Personal Spending

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

“You’d rather be right or make money?”
I ask myself this sometimes—and you probably should too. It’s easy to answer when you’re both right and making money. But when you’re losing and still clinging to being right… well, that’s when the question really matters.

I might have already said this before, I honestly don’t remember, but I keep a small spreadsheet where I’ve logged every trade since 2018. The surprising part—and unfortunately it took me longer than I’d like to admit to fully understand—is that before I could be profitable, I had to be disciplined.

Discipline means entering a trade when all or at least the majority of your conditions are met. But it also means having the strength to say, “This isn’t working,” and close the trade—even when your conditions were met on entry. It’s easy to write that on a blog or test it in a paper trading account. But when it’s your actual money and your ego on the line, believe me, it’s a whole different game.

Hope is usually the first emotion that sneaks in:
“Yeah, it’ll recover.”
But if you’re dealing with options like I am, time isn’t just a factor—it’s your best friend or your worst enemy. There is no “wait and see.” And there is definitely no room for “hope.”

Before we get into the forecasts, just one more thing.
On Friday, the Market took a dip. You probably already know why, and if not, someone out there will explain it. But I’m not interested in the “why”—I’m interested in how the Market reacted.

Remember: at the open, it’s mostly retail traders driving the action. Smart money comes in later in the day. So what does that behavior tell us? To me, it says the usual—retail reacted emotionally, probably thinking, “Here it comes, the Market’s going to crash.” And then smart money stepped in and said, “Thanks, we’ll take it from here.”

That also tells me something else: these types of announcements might already be priced in. They’re not having the same shock effect they used to. That’s worth thinking about.

Because when the Market doesn’t react to bad news the way it “should,” or doesn’t rally in a month when it usually does, that could be a signal. A sign of hidden strength. Or hidden weakness. Either way, it’s something to remember as we move forward.

I typically use May as a barometer for the summer. A weak or negative May tells me summer could lean bearish or just drag sideways. But a strong May? That usually opens the door for a solid summer—upside potential, trading opportunities, momentum. Now, looking at May’s candle so far… it’s longer than usual, and that upper wick? Also longer than I’d like. What does it mean? Honestly, I have no clue—not yet.

What happened last week? Forecasts leaned more toward a sideways week—and that’s pretty much what we got. A bad reaction here, yet another announcement there… sure, it added some movement, but still not the kind of price action I like to see – I trade based on evidence, not news. Choppy, reactive, and directionless—not exactly inspiring.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5958
R2	5949
R1	5918
Close	5802
S1	5691
S2	5598
S3	5554

Forecasts

A few things to consider here. That weekend gap from May 10th–11th is still open, and the Market has already shown signs of leaning toward closing it. The orange circle—previously resistance in early May—may now act as support. On the bigger picture, longer-term charts still point down, although signs of recovery are beginning to show. Medium-term charts have been trending upward for a few weeks now, while short-term? They just needed a break. We closed near the blue line, which marks a +20% move from the April low—if you know your definitions, you know what that implies.

This week is a shorter one due to the holiday, and as I mentioned in the previous post, I’m expecting more meaningful moves toward the very end of the month—specifically around May 29th–30th. Direction? To me, it still looks like the upside has the edge but that gap may need to close before we continue.

Back at the start of May, I posted my DOIs (Dates of Interest) for the month: the 5th, 7th, 13th–15th, and—just added last week—the 29th–30th. These are typically points where I expect a change in direction (sideways included). So, did they play out?

Well… sort of. On the 5th we shifted from up to sideways for a few days. On the 7th, we resumed the climb. The 13th–15th range? That one didn’t land—Market didn’t really change direction until the 20th. Now we’ll see what happens with the final set on the 29th–30th.

As for June? To me, it looks like a choppy month. The monthly candle may end up white, but with long wicks on both sides—classic indecision. My DOIs for June are shaping up as the 5th, 10th, 23rd, and 27th. That would suggest up to four tradeable pivots next month. Is that likely? Maybe. But if history has taught me anything, it’s that even in the best months, I rarely get more than three solid opportunities. So once again, reality keeps my feet firmly on the ground.