Seasonal Context & Events

This week, we’re officially out of earnings season, but not out of things to watch. Options expirations are back on the table, and the calendar’s throwing in a holiday curveball on the 19th with markets closed. On top of that, it’s the third Wednesday of the month—so we’ve got the 10-year bond auction lined up, always a good one to keep on the radar. No end-of-month flows to mess with positioning either, so the landscape is cleaner, but don’t mistake that for quiet—this combo can still stir things up.

Key events include:

• 18th June 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 18th June 18:00UTC Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 18th June 18:30UTC Fed Press Conference
• Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at a tool that, when paired with others, could help identify potential tops. Now it’s time to flip the chart and talk bottoms.

Same disclaimer applies: this isn’t some sacred formula. It’s not math—it’s observation. So if you came looking for The Answer™, you’re in the wrong place. What you’ll find here is a framework based on experience—specifically, a question I started asking myself years ago: “How many times would I have been wrong investing (yep, let’s underline that—investing, not trading) when the VIX spiked above a certain level?”

That’s when I began mapping out historical VIX spikes and cross-referencing them with price behavior. The goal? To see how often that classic Buffet-ism held water: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

Now, if you’re not familiar with the VIX—quick refresher:

The VIX (also known as the “fear index”) tracks market volatility based on S&P 500 options. In simple terms, the higher it goes, the more freaked out people are. Low VIX = calm markets, high VIX = panic mode.

Before diving into charts, I identified what I call “common levels”—similar to basic support and resistance, but for the VIX. We won’t use all of them, just two key ones that tend to matter most: 66.41, and 50.00..

Let’s dig in and see if fear really is a feature—not a bug—when it comes to bottom spotting.

VIX Spikes at or above 66.41

Date	Value	Peak On	Value	Market Bottom	Days from Spike	Max Drawdown	P/L to Next Spike
10/10/2008	76.94	23/10/2008	96.40	06/03/2009	104	-35.34%	+175.86%
12/03/2020	76.83	18/03/2020	85.47	23/03/2020	7	-9.80%	+109.07%
05/08/2024	65.73*	05/08/2024	65.73*	05/08/2024	0	0%	NA

As you can see, there are technically only two major historical spikes above 66.41 —plus a third minor outlier, because the 05/08/2024 spike was so close to that level, I included it too.

The key takeaway? If I had used VIX > 66.41 as my sole signal to enter a buy-and-hold position, I’d have been right every single time—each spike marked a solid entry point. Sure, you might have stared at a red P/L for a few days (or weeks), but over the long run, those were golden moments for stepping in.

The only problem? In the last 17 years, I would’ve only entered the Market three times.

VIX Spikes at or above 50.00

Date	Value	Peak On	Value	Market Bottom	Days from Spike	Max Drawdown	P/L to Next Spike
01/09/1998	53.43	08/10/1998	59.71	08/10/1998	26	0%	+0.66%
21/09/2001	57.31	21/09/2001	57.31	21/09/2001	0	0%	+9.42%
06/10/2008	58.24	23/10/2008	96.40	06/03/2009	104	-35.34%	+79.15%
24/08/2015	53.29	24/08/2015	53.29	24/08/2015	0	0%	+42.35%
06/02/2018	49.21*	06/02/2018	49.21*	24/12/2018	222	-12.76%	+10.28%
06/03/2020	54.39	18/03/2020	85.47	23/03/2020	11	-24.72%	+74.48%
05/08/2024	65.73	05/08/2024	65.73	05/08/2024	0	0%	-2.39%
07/04/2025	60.13	07/04/2025	60.13	07/04/2025	0	0%	NA

A few more instances show up, but let’s be clear—this isn’t a magic buy/sell switch. Still, when used in context with other tools and the broader environment, it can definitely highlight some solid buy-and-hold opportunities.

Summary

A few personal takeaways from this little VIX experiment:

• VIX alone doesn’t pinpoint Market bottoms.
• The 2022 bear market didn’t even qualify for any major spike levels.
• Used alongside other tools, VIX can highlight solid buy-and-hold opportunities.
• Event-driven drops with VIX above 50 (e.g., the recent tariff drama) have often marked great entry points.
• A low VIX doesn’t mean the Market is heading higher—see: 2022.
• And a VIX peak doesn’t mean the bottom is in.
• The longest delays between a VIX spike and a Market bottom have consistently occurred in years ending in 8—1998, 2008, and 2018.
• A short time between a VIX spike and the Market bottom doesn’t guarantee you’ll avoid seeing some negative unrealized P/L in your account (COVID).
• Buying at the close during a VIX spike doesn’t guarantee your unrealized P/L will be green by the time the next spike hits (05/08/2024).

“My honest takeaway? Next time the crowd’s panicking and VIX spikes above 50, you bet I won’t waste time—I’ll be looking to go long before the headlines even cool down.”

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for more upside, but with a warning to be cautious around the 10th for a possible shift. Technically, we saw a peak on the 11th—but that actually lines up well with the forecast, so I still count it as valid.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6046
R2	6020
R1	5999
Close	5976
S1	5899
S2	5844
S3	5824

Forecasts

I usually avoid dropping news, geopolitical, or macro commentary into this space. Why? If you’re into technical analysis, you know this already: everything known to the public is already reflected on the chart.

That’s not me dodging explanations—but with the latest tones in the climate and the upcoming expiration of the “90 days pause,” forecasting has gotten messier than usual.

My gut tells me Friday’s drop was news-driven. I tried finding an entry for the downside—couldn’t nail it; I’m not that sharp… yet. What does that mean? To me, it signals a likely resumption of the upside next week. That clusterfuck of resistance overhead? Yeah, it might have a word or two before we go anywhere fast.

My next DOI is the 23rd. Does that mean we’ll just keep rising until then? Maybe. But given everything in play, it feels about as predictable as flipping a coin. Let’s see how the Market actually plays it out.