Seasonal Context & Events

We’re in “earnings warnings” mode now (read below if you missed the memo). No options expirations on deck, no holidays to shorten the week, but what could matter more is the flow of money. With the third quarter ending and the fourth about to kick off, monthly inflows and outflows could get chunky. And let’s not forget what Martin J. Pring reminded us: we’re stepping into the historically best five consecutive months for the Market. Context matters.

Key events include:

• 30th September 14:00UTC JOLT’s Job Openings
• 02nd October 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 03rd October 12:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Nothing special to highlight this week, if not a little change in the terminology used in the “Season Context & Events”.

Really never liked how to define the season were the are no earnings been released but thanks to Brian Shannon I’ve got the solution.

Copy-pasting from his book:

Earnings season actually begins with “earnings warnings” about two to three weeks before the actual results are publicly released. As a company realizes that their results might fall short of what they previously indicated, they try to get the news out to the market quickly by issuing a “warning.” These warnings take many participants off guard and are dealt with quickly, often severely as shareholders rush for the exits all at once. While earnings warning only speeds up the markets’ reaction to the news, it is a tradition on Wall Street that helps the reporting company to be “trusted” in bad times. It also helps the time it takes for the stock to recover from such a violation.

What does that mean for you? From now on, every end-of-quarter month gets labeled “earnings warnings.” Cleaner, easier, and it saves us all from the usual dumb back-and-forth: “We’re not in earnings season anymore,” “two weeks until earnings season starts again,” and so on. Done deal.

That’s it for this week.

P.S. I’m also putting together a reference page for readers—basically a cheat sheet on what goes into the Seasonal Context & Events section and why, since those checkpoints never really change.

What happened last week? Forecasts reported:”Either we push back into the R2–R3 range, or we dip to test that trendline and then bounce back toward R1.”.

Well, we got a bit of everything—first the push to R2, then the trendline tap, and finally a bounce. Should’ve reminded myself the 19th was on September’s DOI list… rookie move.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6772
R2	6724
R1	6696
Close	6643
S1	6537
S2	6523
S3	6422

Forecasts

Trendline’s still there—you know the drill: green for support, red for resistance. But now there’s also a shaded zone and a purple line. What are those? Let me explain.

We’re at quarter’s end, and the first days of October tend to be wild. Pretending I’ve got a precise forecast here would be like pretending I know what I’m doing (spoiler: I don’t). So that shaded area (shows up green on my screen) is basically where I expect the Market to mess around next week. And the purple line? It connects the 17th and 25th candles—eerily similar shapes. I’m curious to see if that level decides to matter in the days ahead.

So, no “official” forecast this time—just a wide sandbox. That said, I wouldn’t be shocked if next Friday’s weekly candle turns out white (size TBD). Any close under that trendline, though, and you’ll hear alarm bells going off in my head.

End of Month

Quick forecasts recap:

Here’s the rough sketch: a possible rise into the 8th, stall out there, then a pullback that could drag into the 15th. After that, maybe another push up toward the 19th, and then a slide again into month’s end.

We got the rise into the 8th where I was expecting a stall—but nope, that never showed up. Instead, we just kept pushing higher. Between the 15th and 19th, not much happened—call it a pause at best. The slide I had penciled in for the 19th didn’t actually kick off until the 23rd (two candles late), and the bounce showed up one candle earlier than forecast, last Friday instead of the 29th. So, first half of the month? Meh. Second half? Much better—both for the forecasts and for my account.

Now, what about October?

DOIs: 2nd, 7th–9th, 15th–17th, 23rd, 29th.

To be honest, I don’t have “real” DOIs for October beyond the 2nd. What I see is a rise stretching into the 23rd, where we could hit a digestion phase—basically sideways action as profits get taken till the 29th were another leg up may take place. Those ranges I’ve marked are what I’d call turbulence dates: spots where I expect 1–2 candles to move against the main trend before the uptrend resumes within 3–4 candles. Eventually, this strong run will need to correct downward and shed some profits, but I suspect that won’t show up until the first week of November. So for October, think of those dates as either digestion points or possible reversals—it’s your call which one plays out.