Seasonal Context & Events

We’re stepping into what’s effectively the final week of earnings season—technically not over, but let’s be honest, most of the meaningful reports are behind us. The Market’s next scheduled event is the monthly options expiration this coming Friday, which could add a bit of noise to otherwise calm waters. There are no holidays on the calendar and no end-of-month flows to distort price action, so whatever moves we get will be driven by positioning, sentiment, and whatever macro surprises decide to show up.

Key events include:

• 13th May 12:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 13th May 12:30UTC CPI
• 15th May 12:30 UTC PPI
• 15th May 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Most of you probably remember the COVID-19 recession—blink and it was over. But right before that late February 2020 selloff, economic indicators were still trending higher, giving zero warning of what was coming. That’s why it’s worth asking: what if a tariffs-induced recession behaves the same way? Your data might still be flashing green while the underlying damage hasn’t shown up yet.

By the end of June, I’ll revisit the year-end forecast—not because the December 31st target is gospel, but because the Market’s behavior between now and then will tell us far more. The current outlook leans toward a sluggish, downward-biased stretch from June through September (where the down is expected more in the August – September area)—nothing dramatic, but choppy enough to wear down investors and make allocation decisions tricky. That alone wouldn’t change much, but if you factor in actual supply chain disruptions from tariffs—delayed, but now arriving—it starts to reshape the risk landscape. A container from China takes roughly a month to reach U.S. shores. That clock is now ticking.

Add to that the fact that traditional indicators may not catch this kind of economic bruising, and that we’re entering August–September territory—the worst-performing stretch historically—and there’s even more reason to be cautious. April’s monthly candle was still trending down. May’s? Too early to trust—I’ll revisit that mid-month once the shape is meaningful. And as earnings wrap up next week, that final pillar propping up sentiment might start to wobble, giving June a wide-open runway for reality to settle in.

Now, let’s flip it: what if that was the bottom? Then I’m wrong. It happens. But here’s the key: if I buy stocks based on a feeling or a guess, then every outcome becomes random, and I have no way to replicate success. But if I make decisions based on indicators—on structure, trend, and actual price behavior—I can at least build something consistent. That’s why I don’t hunt for bottoms. I don’t need to catch the exact low. I care about the trend—something that can last, not something that feels clever in hindsight.

Investing isn’t about nailing turning points; it’s about navigating the road ahead with a process that can be repeated. Right now, that process says: stay patient, stay focused, and don’t confuse rebound with recovery. There’s a difference, and knowing it is where the edge lives.

What happened last week? Forecasts called it—a no-action week.

And that’s exactly what we got. No breakout, no breakdown, just sideways drift. Nothing to see here, just pure Market boredom in motion. And honestly? I’m good with that. I don’t like trading—I like investing. When nothing’s happening, it means I don’t have to put capital at risk, chase noise, or overthink setups. It also means less work for me, which is a win in itself. Sometimes, doing nothing is the most productive thing you can do in the Market.

The blue line? That’s just the 20% mark from the lowest low—nothing fancy, but it might come in handy when things start moving and people suddenly rediscover what “bear market” technically means.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5896
R2	5798
R1	5748
Close	5659
S1	5599
S2	5505
S3	5434

Forecasts

Since the last post, I ditched the whole “Up, Down, Sideways” section—but let’s be honest, those are still the only three directions the Market can take. These forecasts are built around a 5-day window—essentially, what might happen over the coming week. We just had a sideways week, before that we had two weeks of climbing, so what’s missing from the rotation? Yep, that would be down.

Now, am I locked into that view? Not at all. When I share a direction, it’s where I expect price to go—not a hill I’m dying on. The moment something tells me, “Hey, you’re wrong,” I’ll happily change my mind (thankfully, flexibility isn’t illegal).

So, am I saying the Market collapses on Monday? Doubt it. But my awareness radar is flashing a bit—there’s macro data coming next week, and if it doesn’t land where the crowd expects, it could shift sentiment fast. Big reactions? Possible. Just keep in mind they may only last a couple of days—maybe three. Could be sideways until the next DOI mentioned in the last article, and then? Brace for some movement, but don’t bet your house on its direction (especially on its duration).

EDIT 10/05/2025

S/R levels changed. Wrong data has been used previously. Ops.

Seasonal Context & Events

We’re heading into the final stretch of earnings season—the last two weeks where the stragglers report and the market tries to make sense of it all. With no options expirations, no holidays, and no end-of-month flows to stir the pot.

Key events include:

• 07th May 18:00UTC Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 07th May 18:30UTC Fed Press Conference
• 08th May 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Last week, I started reading a new book, and right from the beginning it hit on something that’s often misunderstood in trading: greed. Not the usual “greed is bad” cliché—quite the opposite. The author makes a solid point: wanting more isn’t inherently wrong. Are top athletes like Michael Jordan greedy because they push for more wins, more records, more greatness? Of course not. Greed only becomes a problem when it starts undermining your performance and distorting your vision—that’s the moment ambition crosses the line.

Among a lot of interesting insights (I haven’t finished the book yet), the author dropped a surprisingly practical strategy for handling emotions—not by suppressing them, but by listening to them, like technical indicators for your brain. Two simple things I’ve already added to my trading journal:

1. “How are you?”
   Literally just writing down how I’m feeling when I sit at my desk. Here’s a real entry from today:
   “02/05/2025 17:19 UTC – Feeling a bit angry for missing the April 22nd move. My charts weren’t prepped and now I’m fighting the urge to chase. I keep thinking ‘price will retrace,’ but indicators disagree. Am I confusing a pause for a pullback because I just want to be right? Reminder: you tend to jump the gun after missing a move. The market will be here tomorrow. Don’t chase—wait for it.”
2. “What does the Market want you to do?”
   Based on a first glance—price action, daily % move—what’s the Market tempting you to do? Then ask yourself: do you agree with that instinct? If yes, why? If no, why not? It’s a small exercise, but it helps shrink the ego and keeps me from taking trades just to prove a point when the charts say otherwise.

Now, do these steps stop me from making every mistake? No—they don’t magically prevent me from choosing the wrong option expiry or position size. But those mistakes usually happen when I’m rushing. These two questions slow me down. They give me awareness. They help me get into the zone—where I can feel the rhythm, like a pro athlete, and execute with clarity instead of emotion.

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for a quiet week—a pause before next week’s potential move.

And that held… until it didn’t. Things stayed calm through Wednesday, but then Thursday and Friday blew through every resistance level in sight, with Friday wrapping up right between R2 and R3. So much for the pause.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5947
R2	5835
R1	5742
Close	5686
S1	5553
S2	5496
S3	5474

Forecasts

Just a few things to keep in mind this week—and to be honest, the main one isn’t exactly my favorite topic for a market blog, since I deal with price action, not primetime drama. But reality is reality, and on the 7th at 18:30 UTC, we’ll get someone’s official point of view on something, and that alone could throw a bit of a roller coaster into the mix. For May, my “DOI” (Dates of Interest) are the 5th, the 7th, and the range between the 13th–15th. Translation? The uptrend could continue, but likely in a stair-step fashion—small dips, big jumps, a bit of sideways drift, rinse and repeat. Unfortunately, that choppy grind may be the theme for the entire month of May. And with summer kicking in, the Market gets thinner, the entries get trickier, and the frustration gets real. That’s when traders start torching their accounts chasing setups that aren’t there. I’ll try not to be one of them.

P.S. Yes, I deleted the usual “Up,” “Sideways,” and “Down” sections—you’ve got eyes, you’ve got a chart, and I trust you can read the (expected weekly) range.

Seasonal Context & Events

We’re right in the thick of earnings season now, with some of the heavyweights set to report next week—expect the headlines (and maybe the volatility) to pick up. There are no options expirations or holidays on the schedule to muddy the waters, so it’s all about the earnings reaction. Keep in mind, though, we do have end-of-month inflows and outflows in play, which could add a little extra noise to the tape as funds shuffle their books.

Key events include:

• 29th April 14:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 30th April 12:30UTC GDP
• 30th April 14:00UTC PCE
• 30th April 14:00UTC Personal Income
• 30th April 14:00UTC Personal Spending
• 01st May 12:300UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 02nd May 12:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Yep, a bit late because, well, life happens—and nowhere around here is it written that this is “the perfect blog.” Perfection? Let’s talk about that for a second, because last week didn’t exactly give us much else to chew on. Everyone’s out there hunting for the perfect trade, the perfect setup, the perfect “this is it” moment. Took me a few years to realize it, but my trading only really improved when I stopped chasing perfection and started doing one simple thing: cutting losses.

Whatever your time horizon is for a trade (trading, not investing), ask yourself—if it’s not moving in your favor after X time, what are you doing? Personally, I close it. Most people like to play the hope game: “Oh, it’ll turn back soon,” or worse, “I’m already down 50%, might as well ride it to 100%.” Bad idea. A 50% loss isn’t the same as a 100% loss—and showing yourself you can be disciplined is way more important than praying for a miracle.

When to cut it? That’s on you. If your horizon is three months, don’t panic over three bad days. It’s about finding your own line between “be patient” and “stop the bleeding.” I don’t use stop losses myself—don’t like them, don’t need them, not for the stuff I trade. My job is to know when to get out or stay in, not leave it up to an automated trigger.

Looking back at my own trading logs, the real turning point wasn’t more winners—it was cutting the losers faster and cleaner. Less time, less bleeding, way better results. Statistically, my gains didn’t spike because I hit more home runs, but because I stopped swinging at bad pitches and standing there hoping.

If you’re new to this, here’s the short version: put your ego aside. You’re not going to be perfect. You don’t need 100% wins—you need a solid 70–80% win rate and the guts to cut the trash fast. That’s where the real edge starts.

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for a rise, but with caution—specifically watching for any close above the April 9th high, which would’ve signaled a real continuation.

Monday didn’t exactly scream bullish, but S1 and S2 held strong. Tuesday opened with a gap up and closed above the mini-gap from Friday to Monday. Wednesday brought the first real attempt to break the April 9th high, and Thursday finally punched through, closing right on R2. Friday? R2 flipped into solid support and helped push prices even higher.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5699
R2	5652
R1	5617
Close	5525
S1	5368
S2	5348
S3	5345

Forecasts

Up?
Yeah, it still leans up—but momentum’s definitely fading. And let’s not forget about that lovely clusterfuck of resistance looming overhead.

Sideways?
Could happen. By the end of the week, we might just be spinning in circles and going nowhere fast.

Down?
Also possible, but support looks pretty packed right underneath. Any downside move might struggle to really get going.

My Outlook:
When you factor in upcoming earnings releases, some heavyweight macro data, short-term indicators looking tired, and a bunch of retail traders trapped above (orange circle, anyone?), it feels like the real action might have to wait until next week.

Seasonal Context & Events

We’re deep into earnings season now, wrapping up the Financials-heavy first half and heading into the third and fourth weeks—prime time for Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples to take the stage. Expect the spotlight to shift, but don’t expect much else to stir the pot—no options expirations, no holidays, and no end-of-month flows to distort the picture. It’s just pure earnings vs. expectations, clean and unfiltered.

Key events include:

• 24th April 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Just a couple of things this week—keeping it short (short week, right?).

First, take a look at what happened to UNH when expectations had to be “adjusted downward.” Now zoom out and imagine that on a broader scale—across sectors, not just a single stock. What if that’s the setup for July and August? Earnings season part two, but with softer guidance and a macro backdrop that’s more fog than forecast. Who knows—but the seed’s planted.

Second, this page shows the Buffett Ratio, and as it reports: “Danger Zone” range where a major correction could be expected if history rhymes. Based on the current trajectory, that range sits around 208.35% – 232.65%. Will it hold? Taking the FTW5000’s all-time high of $61,667.52 on February 19th, 2025, and matching it with the latest GDP data from March 27th ($29,723.864B), we get a ratio of 207.47%—just under the threshold. And wouldn’t you know it, that’s right when the current slide kicked off.

So, where’s the bottom? According to my Casio calculations, a more historically sustainable range (151%–167%) would put the FTW5000 between $48,500 and $45,000. We’ve already dropped below the top end, hitting $48,128.27 on April 7th—squarely in the range.

Will we hit $45,000? I don’t know. But we’re already in the neighborhood.

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for a rise into that lovely clusterfuck of resistance above, followed by a drop back to S1.

I had priced in high volatility—but didn’t account for the short week and the fact that volatility was actually cooling off. So what did we get? A move that fell just short of R1 on the way up, and shy of S1 on the way down. Still—movement, direction, and timing were on point. Magnitude? Slightly off. Close enough for government work.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5585
R2	5495
R1	5436
Close	5282
S1	5129
S2	5092
S3	4998

Forecasts

Up?
Definitely on the table—but for anything meaningful, I’d want to see a close above last week’s highest high at $5,459. Until then, it’s just noise with ambition.

Sideways?
Large timeframe indicators are bottoming out, and momentum is fading—which ironically makes this the worst of the three options. Flat markets with tired indicators? That’s a recipe for frustration, not opportunity.

Down?
Also a possibility, but same rule applies as with the upside—I want to see a clean break out of the two-week range first. The S1–S2 zone looks solid enough to slow down a weak bearish move, but let’s not assume it’s impenetrable.

My Outlook:
Honestly? It leans bullish to me. But let’s be real—we don’t have a close above the April 9th high yet. The structure so far is a high (April 9), a low, another high (April 14) roughly at the same level—so no higher high—and then another low on April 16. If we fail to break that April 9th high, that’s not strength, that’s a warning shot. And if that happens, well… time to start looking down again. So yes, the forecast is up—but if it doesn’t deliver, expect the market to hand you the alternate ending. Simple enough, right?

Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is officially underway, but don’t count on it to fuel much upside—CEOs might start trimming their forecasts, and future earnings could take a hit as the macro fog thickens. Options expiration is back on the radar, landing on the 17th this month—mark it down. That’s because the 18th is Good Friday, and the market will be taking the day off. Also, don’t expect any help from end-of-month flows—there aren’t any.

Key events include:

• 17th April 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Do you believe in miracles? Not in the religious sense—more the everyday kind, the ones we can’t quite explain with what we think we know. Personally, I’ve come around to the idea, thanks in part to Og Mandino’s The Greatest Miracle in the World. But here’s the catch: miracles don’t come from nowhere. They come from intent, from action—usually human. They’re not random magic; they’re mislabelled effort.

So why bring up miracles on a stock Market blog? Simple—I’m talking about what happened on Tuesday, April 8th. If you traded that opening rally to the upside, I’m sorry, but that wasn’t a miracle. That was a textbook case of ignoring the obvious. A +3% pop at the open while monthly indicators are free-falling and the weekly’s still heading south? That’s not divine intervention—that’s poor situational awareness dressed up in hopium.

Yes, the political climate may have added fuel to the fire. But blaming that for jumping long is like crediting gravity for tripping when you weren’t looking. The Market had been riding three straight days (quite) outside the Bollinger Bands—so that early morning bounce was purely technical, not inspirational. Weekly’s still extended, so we might see a short-term relief rally, maybe a few days. But don’t confuse that with trend reversal.

Quarterly and monthly momentum are still sliding downhill. Time to stop hoping for miracles and start getting comfortable with puts.

And it’s kind of funny—just a few days ago I was chatting with a friend, and out of nowhere she drops this line: “How can you be aware if you haven’t lived the full reality?” That one hit me. I actually paused for a second, just thinking, “Damn… that’s spot on.” I even told her, “I don’t know where you pulled that from, but it’s 100% real.”

Moral of the story? Timeframes exist for a reason. You can’t claim awareness from a 5-minute chart and pretend you’ve seen the full picture.

Not even going to dive into what happened the day after—you’ve probably already heard every excuse, explanation, and dramatic Twitter thread imaginable. But fine, maybe just a little, because there was something technical worth noting.

A bounce was due—that much was expected. The size of it? That’s where catalysts come in and do what they do. Now, was it clear when the bounce might show up? Honestly, yes—if you were paying attention to both the event window (you know, that classic 1–3 day market reaction rule) and if you happen to use Bollinger Bands without just treating them like decorative ribbons on your chart.

Here’s the setup on my daily charts:

• Thursday: Candle fully outside the bands, both bands expanding → bounce the next day? Nope.
• Friday: Same story—outside the bands, both still expanding → bounce on Monday? Still nope.
• Monday: Candle showed an upper wick poking back inside the bands, and both bands started to soften, shifting their trajectory → now that looked like a setup.

So Tuesday’s bounce? Not a surprise. Wick back inside, bands tightening—probabilities finally leaning that way.

Does this work 100% of the time? We’re talking about the Market, people—of course it doesn’t. Why did you even ask? If you’re looking for certainty, try a vending machine, not price action.

But let’s be real for a second—were you genuinely expecting a clean “V” reversal with higher timeframes (weekly, monthly) still trending down? Because that’s how you get your rally hopes shattered.

Now, if you were trading this—where was the exit? For me, it was Monday while driving back home (yes I did stop, safety first) . But if you were using intraday timeframes, you had your window well before 15:50 UTC. That was the market whispering “wrap it up” if you were listening.

What happened last week? The forecast where just randomly pointing “down”, I could not check the whole thing on Friday, so I had to take a guess on Thursday, moreover I mentioned I was expecting something (a bounce, really) between the 7th and the 10th. Why? As I’ve pointed out before, news of this magnitude usually impacts price for about 1 to 3 days—after that, it’s just the Market being the Market. Given the size of the headline, I expected its effect to carry through until around the 7th. But my magically calculated “DOI” (Dates of Interest)—those curious little time pockets where I tend to expect something to shift—had the 10th marked.

Skipping this section, since there wasn’t a proper forecast in the last article and the S&R levels were based on a reference point far off from Friday’s close. That said, if you look at the chart, a few of those levels still did their job—like good soldiers following orders, even if the general was half asleep.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5639
R2	5592
R1	5549
Close	5363
S1	5196
S2	5049
S3	4996

Forecasts

Up?
There’s a massive clusterfuck of resistance sitting overhead. Good luck pushing through that. Could it happen? Sure, anything can. But it’s like trying to sprint through molasses—technically possible, just not pretty or likely without help.

Sideways?
A push up into that resistance zone followed by a sideways chop? Totally plausible. Wouldn’t be the first time the market wandered aimlessly after slamming into a wall.

Down?
A drop to S1 would mean a 3.1% move, and S2 is sitting 5.8% lower. Volatility is still high and trending—these aren’t fantasy numbers. We’ve seen similar moves recently, and the tape doesn’t look ready to settle down just yet.

My Outlook:
Given the current S/R setup, the market would need to fight its way through that overhead traffic jam of resistance. Is it possible? Absolutely. Is it probable? Not from where I’m sitting. Some annual reports are already out, and surprise—they didn’t price in or even mention the recent political-economic chaos in their shareholder letters. Fast forward 90 days, and we’ll be deep into July–August earnings season. Maybe by then, the effects (if any) will start to show—assuming they haven’t already been papered over. Until then, good luck. My charts on the investing side aren’t flashing buy, and honestly, I doubt they will for MONTHS. Any technical analysis book will tell you summer isn’t exactly prime time for buying—but hey, those authors weren’t writing with the last two weeks of global nonsense in mind.

Shorter-term? A move up toward R1–R2 looks reasonable, maybe even probable. But after that? There’s a 353-point gap between R1 and S1—roughly 6.3%. That’s not just resistance—it’s a full-blown mess. So pick your battles.

Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is knocking, and—as tradition demands—the Financials get first dibs on the spotlight. The big boys like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will strut out their quarterly confessions, setting the tone while the rest of Wall Street nervously checks their balance sheets. Expect some early noise from credit card companies, insurance firms, and the ever-dramatic regional banks. But don’t expect much else—no options expiration to stir the pot, no holidays to derail the algo rhythm, and no end-of-month fund flows to add spice.

Key events include:

• 09th April 18:00UTC FOMC Minutes
• 10th April 12:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 10th April 12:30UTC CPI
• 10th April 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 11th April 12:30UTC PPI

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Patience matters—especially for those who jumped in at the March 13th low, hoping they’d caught the turning point. But higher timeframes were flashing structural weakness, suggesting that bounce was more of a teaser than a trend shift. Sure, you can invoke politics, wars, and the usual macro drama as excuses, but the price action already gave the clue: that early March drop had enough weight to bend monthly and even quarterly charts. Moves like that usually don’t resolve with a single bounce—they tend to need another leg down. Events and headlines just change the choreography, turning what could’ve been a smooth decline into a jagged mess of gaps and volatility. Still, when you look back, it’ll all seem obvious—“yeah, the downside was coming.” And when “uncertainty” becomes the Market’s favorite buzzword, it’s usually a sign to start looking lower. Words matter, after all—tongue is a creative force, as Charles Capps reminds us. Markets may move on numbers, but sentiment? That’s spoken into existence.

What happened last week? The forecast was pointing to a bounce on S1, with the key trigger being whether the Market would close below the March 13th low. A break there would have opened the door to a straight leg down—no detours. Otherwise, a potential double bottom was on the table, but even that came with conditions: it needed a close above the March 25th high to confirm. Without that, it’s just a pattern in waiting, not a signal.

On Monday, S1 stepped in as support—barely. Technically, the day’s low did dip below the March 13th level, which was already a clue that any rally attempt, news or no news, probably wasn’t built to last. I left the blue trendlines on the chart for context. Some might argue that Wednesday’s high got rejected by the lower boundary of that trendline formation—and I’d half-agree. It doesn’t actually touch the line, but it works well enough as a visual metaphor for the Market politely saying, “Nope, not today.”

Then came the classic after-hours surprise on Wednesday. Shocked? Really? Did anyone actually think Markets would just be allowed to coast? Imagine someone telling you, “By the way, from midnight, things are going to cost a bit more—indefinitely.” Yeah, not exactly a feel-good moment. Price got boxed in between S1 and S2, like it couldn’t decide which way to flinch.

And Friday? Who knows. This was written Thursday after the close—I’m off the grid for a bit. If I had to take a guess? More to come on Friday.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5674
R2	5635
R1	5504
Close	5396* Thursday Close!
S1	5347
S2	5246
S3	5190

Forecasts

As mentioned earlier, I won’t be around for Friday’s close (yes, that’s today for you reading this), so just know that the levels here were carefully calculated with my trusty Casio on the April 3rd close.

My Outlook: Normally, I like to be precise. But this week, I’m skipping the usual up/sideways/down forecast and sticking to what the charts have offered up to Thursday (read above for the why). Is the drop over? No idea. But here’s what I do know:

• The Market has not printed higher highs and higher lows.
• It has been printing lower lows and lower highs.
• The retracement since February 19th is $731—more than two-thirds of the move that began on August 5th.
• That 5350$ target mentioned in an earlier article? Suddenly not looking so unrealistic.
• Earnings are rolling in, and some folks might start dialing down their expectations—someone always pays, and that cost hits the companies first… then probably you, with a little extra on top.
• If certain countries decide to respond to global tensions with even more escalation, guess what? More costs—again, to you.

My view? Still looks down. Till when? Something may change (or get better/worst it really depends on how you are positioned) around the 7th-10th. I don’t see anything positive brewing unless someone drops a headline overnight that changes the narrative. And if that happens? If the Market suddenly pops up in response? There’s not much you or I can do. You can trade the downside, but surprise policy moves or sudden “we changed our mind” moments can rip it the other way. That’s just how it is—part of the game.

I marked that area for a reason—it’s going to act as serious resistance if the market decides to rise again. So don’t just glance at it and move on—burn it into your chart. That zone is where all the eager buyers from the March 13th low got their capital carved up by a clean 10% (or more) in under a month. And since retail traders have a bad habit of buying high and panic-selling low, guess what happens if price comes back to their entry? They’ll likely dump their positions just to break even. Not because it’s the smart trade—because it feels better than holding the bag. Emotional exit liquidity, basically.

Seasonal Context & Events

Technically April is earnings season, but let’s not kid ourselves—things don’t really start cooking until the second week. Until then, it’s mostly pre-show murmurs and recycled optimism. There are no option expirations to stir the pot either, so volatility might be taking a long lunch. Still, don’t discount the quiet push and pull of monthly inflows and outflows—those autopilot 401(k)s and pension rebalancers (watch also for corporate pensions contributions – end of March) can nudge the tape just enough to make traders squint at their screens. No holidays this time around, so we get a full, uninterrupted stretch of watching paint dry… until the real numbers hit.

Key events include:

• 01st April 14:00UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 01st April 14:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 03rd April 14:00UTC ISM Services PMI
• 04th April 12:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

When something unexpected happens, my instinct is always the same: “How could I have known?” I’m specifically referring to that gap-up open on Monday.

Technical Analysis-wise, yes, there was an indicator close to crossing a key level—something I’d been reminding myself about for two weeks: “Don’t act on emotion, wait for the confirmation!” Well, it did cross. But aside from that short-term boost, there wasn’t much support from higher timeframes (and if you jumped in early, well, hopefully it was more of a paper cut than a full-blown wound). Meanwhile, on smaller timeframes, the same indicator started whipsawing—almost like horizontal spring-loading, suggesting it was ready to move. Still, the fact that it all played out in a single day reinforced a familiar lesson: one-day moves mean little if higher timeframes aren’t aligned.

But there’s another angle—something that was in my notes, though to be honest, it’s the kind of background knowledge you don’t lean on often, so most of the time you kind of forget you even know it. Naturally, it only really clicks after the fact. It’s tied more to options expiration (OpEx) and end-of-quarter dynamics. Let’s walk through that:

• Bonds vs. Market: A strong white quarterly candle for bonds (TLT, AGG, or whichever you track) while the equity market posts a red one? That divergence can be telling, somebody may need to balance that.
• Fund Managers: Rebalancing season. There’s often a bit of window-dressing—rotating into popular or “safe” names to make portfolios look impressive. Volatility tends to spike in the usual suspects (e.g., Magnificent 7).
• Corporate Pension Contributions: March is a key month for this, and it often brings a bullish bias as those flows hit the Market.
• Triple Witching: End-of-quarter expirations for stocks, indexes, and futures. It happens every quarter, but March tends to punch harder.

Looking back, bonds outperformed equities last quarter. High-profile names had been under pressure for a month or two. Corporate contributions and OpEx timing aligned. Put all that together, and the Monday gap starts to look a bit less random.

But here’s the thing: while these macro flows and calendar quirks are nice to know, they’re not my main compass. They help contextualize, not predict. I still trust the charts first—they’re clearer, and they don’t require detective work.

What happened last week? Forecasts had penciled in a calm little dip down to S2, followed by a graceful pivot upward toward a modest R1. You know, polite price action.

Well… flip that script upside down, and voilà—that’s what actually happened.

Instead of drifting lower to S2, price charged up to R2 like it had somewhere to be. And instead of climbing gently to R1 afterward, it promptly tripped and tumbled right back down between S1 and S2. A neat little inversion of expectations. What can you say? There’s a first time for everything—including comically reversed forecasts like this one. The Monday gap? Closed.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5929
R2	5865
R1	5788
Close	5580
S1	5497
S2	5445
S3	5298

Forecasts

Up? For those of you still loyally clinging to your long positions—bless your optimism—an up week isn’t exactly topping my list of probable outcomes. That said, if we do get some upside action (and yes, that’s a capital-I if), I’d be eyeing a target somewhere around R1. Manage expectations accordingly.

Sideways? The whole “down” move is starting to feel a bit overcooked—overblown, overreacted, and over basically everything else. If the market manages to chill out by week’s end, sure, we might limp into Friday with some sideways, saggy price action. But honestly? Daily volatility still looks pretty elevated to me—way too jumpy for those neat little low-range candles. So expect more drama, less nap time.

Down? Well, it does look that way! But a clean break below the March 13th low—or even just slipping under S1—would be a not-so-subtle hint that, yep, there’s still more downside queued up and waiting for its turn.

My outlook: I’ve marked a formation—yes, a “formation,” spare me the naming drama. It resembles something, and that’s all that matters. Price closed below it, which more or less gives the bears the green light. Now, a few things worth pointing out: Monday’s gap? Feels suspiciously artificial (scroll up for the tinfoil hat portion). Friday’s candle? Just the crowd doing its usual knee-jerk to data.

Now, let’s not forget we’re one week out from earnings season kickoff, meaning if the market’s going to plunge, those reports better come in both spicy and disastrous. Will they? I have no idea—and neither do you. But I will be paying attention: if price prints a lower low than March 13th, that’s when the alarm bells start ringing.

That said, the event calendar hints at a potential double bottom—though to validate that, we’d need a close above March 25th. So maybe hold the FOMO. As for Monday? Could just be a sequel to Friday, unless folks spend the weekend doomscrolling through headlines (which, let’s face it, never helped anyone’s P&L).

Personally, I’m eyeing (or maybe just manifesting) a bounce before we breach the March 13th low. If not, buckle up for another decent leg down. Just remember: to break a downtrend, you need good old-fashioned higher lows and higher highs. If the next low holds above the last? Could be your cue to start “shopping” while everything’s on clearance.

Yearly Forecasts Updates

Time to do a quick check on the January 2025 forecast (click to open the article) and see how it’s aging.

“[…] From a longer-term (year-ly) perspective, the so-called “2025 apocalypse” was a popular call—guilty as charged. However, this is likely to mark the bottom for the entire year. Some corrections are expected around the first two weeks of March (around 200 points, give or take), which could present another solid ‘buy-and-hold’ opportunity. Beyond that, the Market is expected to rise until around mid-July, where a sideways-to-down phase (less than 200 points) might take over, lasting until the final days of August.[…]”

First up: the January-bottom call. That one’s already out. March 13th printed a lower low at $5,504, so the January low can’t be the bottom—time doesn’t run in reverse. That part of the forecast is invalid, no matter what the rest of the year does.

Correction timing? Off by a bit. The forecast said “first two weeks of March,” but the decline kicked off on February 20th—seven trading days earlier. Close in the bigger picture, but still technically off. To be fair, calling exact turns months in advance is more art than science, and this was within range. And for what it’s worth, the current bottom landed on March 13th—comfortably nestled inside that “first two weeks of March” window, so the forecast didn’t completely miss the party.

Magnitude? Way off. Forecast expected a 200-point dip. The actual drop? $642 peak to trough. So, direction right, size wrong. The difference probably came from surprise factors no one could’ve priced in back in January. That’s just how it goes sometimes.

Next point on the radar is mid-July to end of August, which is expected to be a relatively tame, sideways-to-down phase. I’ll circle back around then—if I remember.

Target remains $7,200. No reason to change it just yet. We’re in “wait and see” mode now.

If this article sparked a brain cell or two, you can say ‘Thanks’—ideally while caffeinating and pretending you’ve got this whole Market thing figured out. For the bureaucratic dance that makes it all possible, the Disclaimer page awaits with vague assurances and legal jargon no one actually reads.