Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is knocking, and—as tradition demands—the Financials get first dibs on the spotlight. The big boys like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will strut out their quarterly confessions, setting the tone while the rest of Wall Street nervously checks their balance sheets. Expect some early noise from credit card companies, insurance firms, and the ever-dramatic regional banks. But don’t expect much else—no options expiration to stir the pot, no holidays to derail the algo rhythm, and no end-of-month fund flows to add spice.

Key events include:

• 09th April 18:00UTC FOMC Minutes
• 10th April 12:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 10th April 12:30UTC CPI
• 10th April 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 11th April 12:30UTC PPI

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Patience matters—especially for those who jumped in at the March 13th low, hoping they’d caught the turning point. But higher timeframes were flashing structural weakness, suggesting that bounce was more of a teaser than a trend shift. Sure, you can invoke politics, wars, and the usual macro drama as excuses, but the price action already gave the clue: that early March drop had enough weight to bend monthly and even quarterly charts. Moves like that usually don’t resolve with a single bounce—they tend to need another leg down. Events and headlines just change the choreography, turning what could’ve been a smooth decline into a jagged mess of gaps and volatility. Still, when you look back, it’ll all seem obvious—“yeah, the downside was coming.” And when “uncertainty” becomes the Market’s favorite buzzword, it’s usually a sign to start looking lower. Words matter, after all—tongue is a creative force, as Charles Capps reminds us. Markets may move on numbers, but sentiment? That’s spoken into existence.

What happened last week? The forecast was pointing to a bounce on S1, with the key trigger being whether the Market would close below the March 13th low. A break there would have opened the door to a straight leg down—no detours. Otherwise, a potential double bottom was on the table, but even that came with conditions: it needed a close above the March 25th high to confirm. Without that, it’s just a pattern in waiting, not a signal.

On Monday, S1 stepped in as support—barely. Technically, the day’s low did dip below the March 13th level, which was already a clue that any rally attempt, news or no news, probably wasn’t built to last. I left the blue trendlines on the chart for context. Some might argue that Wednesday’s high got rejected by the lower boundary of that trendline formation—and I’d half-agree. It doesn’t actually touch the line, but it works well enough as a visual metaphor for the Market politely saying, “Nope, not today.”

Then came the classic after-hours surprise on Wednesday. Shocked? Really? Did anyone actually think Markets would just be allowed to coast? Imagine someone telling you, “By the way, from midnight, things are going to cost a bit more—indefinitely.” Yeah, not exactly a feel-good moment. Price got boxed in between S1 and S2, like it couldn’t decide which way to flinch.

And Friday? Who knows. This was written Thursday after the close—I’m off the grid for a bit. If I had to take a guess? More to come on Friday.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5674
R2	5635
R1	5504
Close	5396* Thursday Close!
S1	5347
S2	5246
S3	5190

Forecasts

As mentioned earlier, I won’t be around for Friday’s close (yes, that’s today for you reading this), so just know that the levels here were carefully calculated with my trusty Casio on the April 3rd close.

My Outlook: Normally, I like to be precise. But this week, I’m skipping the usual up/sideways/down forecast and sticking to what the charts have offered up to Thursday (read above for the why). Is the drop over? No idea. But here’s what I do know:

• The Market has not printed higher highs and higher lows.
• It has been printing lower lows and lower highs.
• The retracement since February 19th is $731—more than two-thirds of the move that began on August 5th.
• That 5350$ target mentioned in an earlier article? Suddenly not looking so unrealistic.
• Earnings are rolling in, and some folks might start dialing down their expectations—someone always pays, and that cost hits the companies first… then probably you, with a little extra on top.
• If certain countries decide to respond to global tensions with even more escalation, guess what? More costs—again, to you.

My view? Still looks down. Till when? Something may change (or get better/worst it really depends on how you are positioned) around the 7th-10th. I don’t see anything positive brewing unless someone drops a headline overnight that changes the narrative. And if that happens? If the Market suddenly pops up in response? There’s not much you or I can do. You can trade the downside, but surprise policy moves or sudden “we changed our mind” moments can rip it the other way. That’s just how it is—part of the game.

I marked that area for a reason—it’s going to act as serious resistance if the market decides to rise again. So don’t just glance at it and move on—burn it into your chart. That zone is where all the eager buyers from the March 13th low got their capital carved up by a clean 10% (or more) in under a month. And since retail traders have a bad habit of buying high and panic-selling low, guess what happens if price comes back to their entry? They’ll likely dump their positions just to break even. Not because it’s the smart trade—because it feels better than holding the bag. Emotional exit liquidity, basically.

Seasonal Context & Events

Technically April is earnings season, but let’s not kid ourselves—things don’t really start cooking until the second week. Until then, it’s mostly pre-show murmurs and recycled optimism. There are no option expirations to stir the pot either, so volatility might be taking a long lunch. Still, don’t discount the quiet push and pull of monthly inflows and outflows—those autopilot 401(k)s and pension rebalancers (watch also for corporate pensions contributions – end of March) can nudge the tape just enough to make traders squint at their screens. No holidays this time around, so we get a full, uninterrupted stretch of watching paint dry… until the real numbers hit.

Key events include:

• 01st April 14:00UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI
• 01st April 14:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 03rd April 14:00UTC ISM Services PMI
• 04th April 12:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

When something unexpected happens, my instinct is always the same: “How could I have known?” I’m specifically referring to that gap-up open on Monday.

Technical Analysis-wise, yes, there was an indicator close to crossing a key level—something I’d been reminding myself about for two weeks: “Don’t act on emotion, wait for the confirmation!” Well, it did cross. But aside from that short-term boost, there wasn’t much support from higher timeframes (and if you jumped in early, well, hopefully it was more of a paper cut than a full-blown wound). Meanwhile, on smaller timeframes, the same indicator started whipsawing—almost like horizontal spring-loading, suggesting it was ready to move. Still, the fact that it all played out in a single day reinforced a familiar lesson: one-day moves mean little if higher timeframes aren’t aligned.

But there’s another angle—something that was in my notes, though to be honest, it’s the kind of background knowledge you don’t lean on often, so most of the time you kind of forget you even know it. Naturally, it only really clicks after the fact. It’s tied more to options expiration (OpEx) and end-of-quarter dynamics. Let’s walk through that:

• Bonds vs. Market: A strong white quarterly candle for bonds (TLT, AGG, or whichever you track) while the equity market posts a red one? That divergence can be telling, somebody may need to balance that.
• Fund Managers: Rebalancing season. There’s often a bit of window-dressing—rotating into popular or “safe” names to make portfolios look impressive. Volatility tends to spike in the usual suspects (e.g., Magnificent 7).
• Corporate Pension Contributions: March is a key month for this, and it often brings a bullish bias as those flows hit the Market.
• Triple Witching: End-of-quarter expirations for stocks, indexes, and futures. It happens every quarter, but March tends to punch harder.

Looking back, bonds outperformed equities last quarter. High-profile names had been under pressure for a month or two. Corporate contributions and OpEx timing aligned. Put all that together, and the Monday gap starts to look a bit less random.

But here’s the thing: while these macro flows and calendar quirks are nice to know, they’re not my main compass. They help contextualize, not predict. I still trust the charts first—they’re clearer, and they don’t require detective work.

What happened last week? Forecasts had penciled in a calm little dip down to S2, followed by a graceful pivot upward toward a modest R1. You know, polite price action.

Well… flip that script upside down, and voilà—that’s what actually happened.

Instead of drifting lower to S2, price charged up to R2 like it had somewhere to be. And instead of climbing gently to R1 afterward, it promptly tripped and tumbled right back down between S1 and S2. A neat little inversion of expectations. What can you say? There’s a first time for everything—including comically reversed forecasts like this one. The Monday gap? Closed.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5929
R2	5865
R1	5788
Close	5580
S1	5497
S2	5445
S3	5298

Forecasts

Up? For those of you still loyally clinging to your long positions—bless your optimism—an up week isn’t exactly topping my list of probable outcomes. That said, if we do get some upside action (and yes, that’s a capital-I if), I’d be eyeing a target somewhere around R1. Manage expectations accordingly.

Sideways? The whole “down” move is starting to feel a bit overcooked—overblown, overreacted, and over basically everything else. If the market manages to chill out by week’s end, sure, we might limp into Friday with some sideways, saggy price action. But honestly? Daily volatility still looks pretty elevated to me—way too jumpy for those neat little low-range candles. So expect more drama, less nap time.

Down? Well, it does look that way! But a clean break below the March 13th low—or even just slipping under S1—would be a not-so-subtle hint that, yep, there’s still more downside queued up and waiting for its turn.

My outlook: I’ve marked a formation—yes, a “formation,” spare me the naming drama. It resembles something, and that’s all that matters. Price closed below it, which more or less gives the bears the green light. Now, a few things worth pointing out: Monday’s gap? Feels suspiciously artificial (scroll up for the tinfoil hat portion). Friday’s candle? Just the crowd doing its usual knee-jerk to data.

Now, let’s not forget we’re one week out from earnings season kickoff, meaning if the market’s going to plunge, those reports better come in both spicy and disastrous. Will they? I have no idea—and neither do you. But I will be paying attention: if price prints a lower low than March 13th, that’s when the alarm bells start ringing.

That said, the event calendar hints at a potential double bottom—though to validate that, we’d need a close above March 25th. So maybe hold the FOMO. As for Monday? Could just be a sequel to Friday, unless folks spend the weekend doomscrolling through headlines (which, let’s face it, never helped anyone’s P&L).

Personally, I’m eyeing (or maybe just manifesting) a bounce before we breach the March 13th low. If not, buckle up for another decent leg down. Just remember: to break a downtrend, you need good old-fashioned higher lows and higher highs. If the next low holds above the last? Could be your cue to start “shopping” while everything’s on clearance.

Yearly Forecasts Updates

Time to do a quick check on the January 2025 forecast (click to open the article) and see how it’s aging.

“[…] From a longer-term (year-ly) perspective, the so-called “2025 apocalypse” was a popular call—guilty as charged. However, this is likely to mark the bottom for the entire year. Some corrections are expected around the first two weeks of March (around 200 points, give or take), which could present another solid ‘buy-and-hold’ opportunity. Beyond that, the Market is expected to rise until around mid-July, where a sideways-to-down phase (less than 200 points) might take over, lasting until the final days of August.[…]”

First up: the January-bottom call. That one’s already out. March 13th printed a lower low at $5,504, so the January low can’t be the bottom—time doesn’t run in reverse. That part of the forecast is invalid, no matter what the rest of the year does.

Correction timing? Off by a bit. The forecast said “first two weeks of March,” but the decline kicked off on February 20th—seven trading days earlier. Close in the bigger picture, but still technically off. To be fair, calling exact turns months in advance is more art than science, and this was within range. And for what it’s worth, the current bottom landed on March 13th—comfortably nestled inside that “first two weeks of March” window, so the forecast didn’t completely miss the party.

Magnitude? Way off. Forecast expected a 200-point dip. The actual drop? $642 peak to trough. So, direction right, size wrong. The difference probably came from surprise factors no one could’ve priced in back in January. That’s just how it goes sometimes.

Next point on the radar is mid-July to end of August, which is expected to be a relatively tame, sideways-to-down phase. I’ll circle back around then—if I remember.

Target remains $7,200. No reason to change it just yet. We’re in “wait and see” mode now.

If this article sparked a brain cell or two, you can say ‘Thanks’—ideally while caffeinating and pretending you’ve got this whole Market thing figured out. For the bureaucratic dance that makes it all possible, the Disclaimer page awaits with vague assurances and legal jargon no one actually reads.

Seasonal Context & Events

With earnings season in the rearview mirror and no looming options expirations to shake things up, next week looks like a pure supply-and-demand battleground. Monthly inflows and outflows will dictate the tape, with no holiday disruptions to provide an artificial lull.

Key events include:

• 27th March 12:30UTC GDP Price Index
• 27th March 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 28th March 12:30UTC PCE Price Index
• 28th March 12:30 Personal Income & Spending

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Candle wick—a tiny battlefield where retail dreams and institutional indifference collide. Most of the time (not always, but often enough), these wicks are the footprints of retail traders chasing momentum, only to get steamrolled by the Market’s indifference to their enthusiasm.

Take March 19th, post-FED meeting. That glorious upper wick? A monument to those who took Powell’s words as gospel and hit “buy” at the worst possible moment. What happened next? The Market shrugged, retraced, and left them holding the bag. Not exactly the dream trade.

Want to spot more retail-driven wicks? Look at the recent downtrend—lower wicks on Feb 25th, March 3rd, and others. If they were signs of real buying pressure, the Market would’ve turned around. Spoiler: it didn’t. That’s why those wicks are more likely retail traders trying to catch the knife than institutions making a move.

Now, does that mean you always have to wait for confirmation before acting? Not necessarily. Sometimes, the difference between retail and “smart money” is obvious in real-time. A couple of standout examples? August 5th and September 11th, 2024.

Look at August 5th and September 11th, 2024—if you really break down the price action, you’ll see the contrast. One is wishful thinking, the other is capital at work. I won’t spell it out for you (where’s the fun in that?), but trust me, once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

What happened last week? The playbook seemed straightforward enough: the 14th March rally had momentum, was expected to carry on for another 2-4 days, and had its sights set on R2. The script even accounted for a decline after hitting R2. Simple, right?

Monday came in all hot and bothered, giving R2 a little wink—but no follow-through. Just vibes.

Tuesday? Opened right at R1, then promptly ghosted the bulls and sold off like someone saw a ghost in CPI data. So much for momentum.

Wednesday got frisky again, poking its head above R2. But instead of a breakout, we got more of a soggy balloon pop—just enough to get hopes up and then leave a mess on the floor. Not exactly the kind of breakout you frame and hang on your trading wall. It had that “something feels off” energy—the kind that makes your trading gut quietly start packing an overnight bag.

Thursday, déjà vu. Another R2 tag, another rejection. Sellers camped out at that level like they knew the VIP list wasn’t changing. And yeah, if one were the type to squint at intraday charts (we’re not, but let’s pretend), you’d probably spot a cute little double top forming. You know the one: price hits resistance, retreats, comes back for a second kiss, gets slapped again. And if you really cared about precision (which we obviously don’t, but we love pretending), you’d do that whole “measure the distance from the highs to the dip in between” thing and subtract it from the neckline around $5480 to get your target. Math magic. Google it. Or don’t.

Friday? Still sticky around R2 like a fly in a jar of old honey. Not bullish, not bearish—just indecisive enough to drive everyone mildly insane.

In short: the market’s been side-eyeing R2 all week like it wants to break up, but can’t quite send the text.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5805
R2	5757
R1	5670
Close	5667
S1	5621
S2	5546
S3	5499

Forecasts

Up? Sure, anything’s possible—but I wouldn’t bet the lunch money on a big move higher. If we do climb, it’s likely to be a limp shuffle, maybe sticky around the R1 level like price action stuck in molasses. Not exactly a rocket.

Sideways? Absolutely on the table. Especially when you look at how the support and resistance levels are practically mirroring each other. That’s classic indecision—like the market’s standing in front of the closet wondering what to wear to nowhere.

Down? Now this one’s got some legs. Could be a polite slide, could be a slap—depends on the mood. Either way, a drift down toward S2 seems very much in the realm of reasonable, especially if the current sleepwalk starts to tilt.

My outlook: Last week’s forecasts had their hearts set on a drop kicking off midweek, aiming for a scenic stop around $5,350. That target? Now looking like one of those “would’ve been nice” scenarios—unless, of course, something spooks the herd hard enough to cause a full-blown stampede.

I always keep both doors open—up and down—so I’m not canceling the downside invite entirely. But $5,350? It’s starting to feel more like a bedtime story than a price target, barring some Market-rattling catalyst.

What’s caught my eye lately is the squeeze in support and resistance levels. They’re closing in on each other like two over-caffeinated toddlers fighting over the same toy. Even better? They’re mirroring. Which usually means the market’s in full “flip a coin” mode. No one’s driving. Everyone’s guessing.

As for me? If I had to place a bet, I’d say we drift with a soft belly until the 25th—maybe test S2 just to keep the edge alive. But after that, something might nudge the market northbound into month-end. Then, around April 7th? Could be fireworks. Something sudden, maybe even aggressive, as earnings season decides to crash the party and pretend it’s the main event.

Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is in the rearview mirror, options expiration next Friday could add some extra downside pressure, and with no holidays or month-end flows to shake things up, the Market is pretty much left to its own devices. No artificial liquidity injections, no convenient catalysts—just pure price action doing its thing. If the trend is down, there’s not much standing in its way (or maybe there is).

Key events include:

19th March 18:00UTC FED Interest Rate Decision

19th March 18:30UTC FED Press Conference

20th March 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5829
R2	5702
R1	5657
Close	5638
S1	5475
S2	5402
S3	5351

Wrap Up & Forecast

The classic “trend reversal” chatter—like clockwork, every time the market throws a little tantrum. Suddenly, everyone’s a dip-buying guru, despite holding exactly zero cash to do so. And of course, they expect trends to flip overnight, as if Market just wakes up one morning and decides, “You know what? Enough of this downtrend nonsense.”

Sure, reversals do happen, but they usually come with a giant neon sign, not just blind hope. As I’ve pointed out before, a decent first step before screaming “reversal!” is to check if the market has at least stopped making lower highs and lower lows. Until then, all you’re doing is catching falling knives with your bare hands.

Now, intraday reversals? Different beast. Some solid signals:

• A gap-down open that closes above the previous day’s close.
• A gap-down open with a white candle, followed by a gap up the next day (a little bullish one-two punch).
• A gap-up open that clears the previous two closes, showing some actual strength instead of just a dead-cat bounce. (wink wink)

Of course, for these to mean something, you need actual support behind your theory. Because while overnight reversals can happen, they’re like spotting a unicorn—rare, and usually seasonal. And March? Not exactly reversal season.

So before blindly trusting some influencer screaming “buy the dip,” do yourself a favor—look at the chart. Because in a downtrend, every security looks like it can’t possibly go lower… right before it does. I’ll start believing in a reversal when the Market stops printing lower highs and lower lows. Until then? My cash stays right where it is.

Additional thought: Behold—the so-called “dip” that everyone is tripping over themselves to buy.

S&P 500 Market Index – Monthly Scale, Last 20 Years.

Look at it. Really look at it. Feel a little stupid now?

If you’re investing, let the charts do the work for you! Let them bottom, let them settle—then, when they actually start rising again, that’s when you buy. Simple. No need to play hero with “averaging down” or bottom fishing. More often than not, that strategy won’t just hurt your portfolio—it’ll crush your confidence. And trust me, a bruised ego is far worse than a red trade.

What happened last week? Forecasts? What forecasts? Nobody was out here making grand predictions—least of all me. Last week wasn’t about calling shots; it was about watching mid-sized charts for signs of a reversal. And until Friday, they gave us nothing (or maybe they did?). But let’s be real—just because the Market shows exhaustion doesn’t mean it’s about to rocket straight up.

Monday set the tone—price punctured S2 like a water balloon. Not a slow leak, not a controlled dip—just straight-up rupture. Tuesday and Wednesday? You could see price trying to hold the S2-S3 range, sloshing back and forth like water inside that broken balloon, pressure fluctuating. By Thursday, those oscillations picked up momentum, sending prices even lower. Then Friday arrived, and suddenly, the balloon flipped—shifting from negative pressure to positive.

Up? Yep, the explosive move from Friday could carry on, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Support is weak, so this rally might have a shelf life of 2-4 days at best. Where to? I see some resistance around R2—a logical speed bump.

Sideways? Doesn’t seem like the week for that. The market doesn’t look like it’s in the mood for a dull, range-bound grind.

Down? If the upside fizzles out, well… down it is. And fresh dip-buyers? If they start panicking, that plunge could pick up steam, sending us straight down to S2.

My outlook: For the sake of completeness—no, again, I don’t trade based on news or events. I read them, sure. I even note the ones that might matter. But do they dictate my forecasts? Absolutely not. News changes volatility and magnitude, not direction. The market already knows what it knows, and it shows it on the chart.

Now, let’s keep this short—because frankly, it doesn’t deserve a long-winded take. My next target? Somewhere around $5300, more precisely $5350. By next week? Probably not. March isn’t the month for miracles. If anything, I expect some fake reversals—little sugar highs—before the market rolls over again, especially around key events, say around the 20th.

So next week? What started may continue. For how long? My guess: until midweek, around the 20th, and around R2. After that? Another leg down seems likely to S1 or S2. But I’ll let the charts do the talking.

A real trend reversal? One that actually sticks? Not holding my breath. For my kind of trading and investing, my brokerage account might as well stay shut until the 25th. It’s not about safeguarding my money—it’s about safeguarding confidence.

Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is over, options expirations are taking a break, no holidays to mess with liquidity, and no end-of-month fund flows to stir things up. It’s just pure, unfiltered price action. The only logistical wrinkle? The U.S. is playing its biannual game of messing with the clocks, so if you’re outside the States, keep in mind that Market hours are shifting. Don’t be that trader who shows up an hour late wondering why futures already made their move.

Key events include:

11th March 14:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings & Quits

12th March 12:30UTC Inflation Rate

12th March 12:30UTC CPI

13th March 12:30UTC PPI

13th March 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5986
R2	5969
R1	5905
Close	5770
S1	5696
S2	5639
S3	5612

Wrap Up & Forecast

Did not forget about the whole “blame game” (being biased) thing, but since I’ve got something more relevant, I’ll save that thought for another time (which conveniently helps me dodge a debate on crypto—no offense, by the way, low was 78k wink wink).

You lose money twice as fast as you make it back. Meaning, if it takes 10 days to drop $400, it’ll take 20 to claw it back—whether it’s an index, a stock, or whatever asset class pretends to have rules. Is this a hard-coded financial truth? Not at all. Just one of those market clichés that sounds profound until it doesn’t. Fear outruns greed, which is why I like trading the downside. But you have to be quick—hit enter fast, hit exit twice as fast. The problem? Fear paralyzes people, making it feel harder to capitalize on a drop than on a rally (but it is just a feeling). But if you’re detached, it doesn’t matter which way it moves—just that it moves. Does this work all the time? Obviously not. It’s one of those things that’s useful to know but rarely useful in practice.

For me, the drop started on February 20, and I exited on March 3 (not at the opening, I’m not an amateur). Didn’t squeeze more profit from the next leg down afterward. Do I care? No. Emotionless, remember?

Just for future reference, a lot of so-called professional bloggers (and that’s already generous) are blaming Trump. I don’t follow U.S. politics, just like I don’t follow politics in my own country—never noticed a difference no matter who’s in charge. This correction was flagged in January by some random blogger no one listens to (you are actually reading, joking). Trump or not, it was coming. The only thing politics (news) might have changed was the magnitude of the swings, but let’s be real, this move down was obvious.

Two quick things before we get to what actually matters:

1. If you’re into technical analysis, you should remember that there are three rules (google them), and I’ve never seen one that says, “Technical analysis adjusts based on whoever’s making headlines.” If your analysis shifts based on news, you’re not doing technical analysis—you’re doing two things at once and getting both wrong.
2. News can change Market direction for up to three days, max. Not always, but that’s the upper limit (see past Fed rate decision reactions for proof or 2018 when somebody started announcing something wink wink). News speeds things up or slows them down, but if the Market wants to go up or down, it will. You can announce whatever you want—Market couldn’t care less.

Had to change chart provider because drawing a few lines on the previous one was a complete pain in the ass.

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for a bounce in the last days of February and the first days of March, followed by a continuation downward—though the whole thing had a bit of a bias, which I wasn’t a fan of. Sure, it worked this time, but forecasting while biased is dangerous; it makes you blind and only lets you see the things that confirm your theory. Mark Douglas talks about this a lot—how traders trap themselves by filtering out anything that contradicts their expectations. Target-wise, S2 or lower.

That anticipated “bounce” ended up looking more like a sideways chop between February 27 and March 3—so yeah, that part needs some work. Futures shot up before the open on Monday, making everyone think the Market was ready to rally, only for it to get sold off during the session, hitting an S2 low. Given Monday’s move, it wasn’t hard to see that we’d be flirting with November 2024’s low of $5,696 (blue dotted line), and sure enough, Tuesday’s low landed around $5,732. Then a day up, then another drop, with November 2024’s level holding the price nicely on Thursday.

And Friday? Well, if you’re a fan of technical analysis, you could call it indecision-to-reversal—or, if you prefer plain English, the Market just stood there, unsure whether to keep tanking or give the bounce another shot. The low for the day actually punctured November 2024’s low, which I don’t like, because for me, support and resistance levels should show a clear and near-immediate change of direction or pause. That “puncture” wasn’t as sharp as I would’ve liked a support level to behave, but it looks like the level still held the price quite nicely.

My outlook:I use a multi-timeframe setup from daily to yearly charts. Right now, the small charts look done going down (for the moment), the middle-sized charts still want to head south, but the big charts might not let them go much further. What does this mean? That any move up will need the medium-sized charts to get on board first—and that takes time. So, any rally attempt might be a short-lived trip rather than a lasting trend, and maybe that’s why I wasn’t expecting much action in March until the end of the month.

This week? Feels like rolling dice, to be honest (this is the reason why Up, Sideways and Down analysis are missing this week.). But if you pointed a gun at my face and said, “Tell me what’s going to happen or I’ll shoot you in the face,” I’d say: Down may be done for now, but don’t expect big moves up unless the mid-range charts start traveling that direction too. And if you open up some indicators (not newspapers—indicators, because that’s what we actually use in technical analysis), you might notice that, yes, the direction is still southbound, but many of them look like they’ve already arrived at their destination.

For reference, I’ve drawn November 2024’s low and the so-famous gap up during the Presidential Election. Being quite undecided, nothing can be left to chance.

Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is over, and with it goes the usual magic lift that tends to prop things up. If you take a step back and look at the January and February monthly candles, how would you define this past earnings season? For me, it wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t anything spectacular either—just a market digesting numbers without much of a knockout punch. Now, we’re in a stretch with no major options expirations, no holidays to distort flows, and nothing artificial holding things up or pushing them down. That said, early-month inflows and outflows can still have their say, so while the calendar may be quiet, the Market isn’t necessarily asleep.

Key events include:

03rd March 15:00UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI

05th March 15:00UTC ISM Services PMI

06th March 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

07th March 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6102
R2	6087
R1	6040
Close	5954
S1	5820
S2	5795
S3	5694

Wrap Up & Forecast

The crypto circus—where every dip is a “healthy correction” and every rally is “just the beginning.” I don’t follow it, don’t trade it, and frankly, don’t care. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad instrument; it just means I have no interest. But the sheer delusion around BTC’s “inevitable moon mission” never fails to make me laugh.

Still remember late November, talking with a friend about BTC: “Nah man, that thing will have to go down around 78k-80k before going up.” And sure enough, here we are (not done yet). One of the reasons I stay away from crypto? Too many amateurs moving way too much money. It’s like watching kids drive sports cars—thrilling, reckless, and bound to end in a wreck.

“Well, how did you know it was going to go down if you don’t follow it?”

Simple—I do follow COIN and MSTR, and they weren’t exactly strapping in for liftoff. If the supposed “big BTC run” was so inevitable, those two should’ve been showing signs of a countdown, not floating aimlessly in zero gravity. Sometimes, you don’t need to stare directly at the sun to know if it’s shining—you just check the shadows.

“Well then, how did you set that target if you don’t follow it?”

Easy—big time frame chart, weekly and monthly. A couple of simple moving averages, a couple of indicators. Took me literally two seconds. You don’t need to be a crypto disciple to spot an obvious level.

Offended? Guess what, the sun still rises tomorrow. Markets don’t care, and neither do I.

It honestly annoys me that I even had to mention crypto in my blog, but let’s be real—I needed to release some of that laughing pressure from my November forecast. Watching it play out exactly as expected? Too good to keep bottled up. Promise, next week I’ll talk about something actually interesting. It will (most likely) be about the dangers of trading or investing while being swayed by external noise (being biased)—because, let’s be honest, the Market already has enough ways to humble you without adding bias to the mix.

What happened last week? Last week started off like a well-behaved student following the syllabus—Monday hit S1, Tuesday checked in at S2, all very textbook. Then, from the 25th, we entered the great indecision phase, where a bounce was the anticipated move. But on the 26th? Oh no, not on Mr. Market’s watch. An initial attempt to rise was swiftly smothered by selling pressure, a classic “nice try” moment.

Instead of the expected bounce, we took the scenic route straight to S3 on the 27th. And just when everyone had resigned themselves to doom, the last three hours of Friday decided to stage a comeback. Was that the bounce? A little late to the party, but hey, fashionably late is still an entrance.

Bonus trivia: The January 15th gap? Closed. The levels? Pretty spot on. The direction? Well… let’s just say “wrong” is a strong word—let’s go with “unexpectedly creative.” Lessons learned, move on. Next chart, please.

Up? Sure, one of the three inevitable choices. But how far? Oxygen looks plentiful up to R1—beyond that, we might be gasping for air.

Sideways? Not my top probability this week. But the Market does what it wants. If it drifts sideways instead of following the script, you adapt. Stubborn traders donate; flexible ones survive.

Down? If we slide, it won’t be pretty (at least for your Unrealized P/L, but who cares if you hold actual companies and not assets that produce, well… nothing? No offense, of course). My guess? S2 or lower.

My outlook: My bias? Down. Is that my Ego talking? No clue, but my inner voice won’t shut up about it. And honestly, I prefer my trades without unsolicited commentary from my subconscious. Had to warn you, I do not like to be biased, I like to have both options up and down (and sideways of course).

03/01/2025 article said “[…] Some corrections are expected around the first two weeks of March (around 200 points, give or take), which could present another solid ‘buy-and-hold’ opportunity. Beyond that, the Market is expected to rise until around mid-July[…]”

Momentum still seems to have some downward energy left (or so my bias insists), but I could see a short bounce into next week, maybe stalling at R1. Then what? March 4th-5th might bring the next leg down. If we sink further, we’re basically time-traveling to November 2024, cozying up to the ~$5700 zone. That, of course, would throw a wrench into the clean “January 13th was the low” storyline. So much for narrative simplicity.

A straight-line drop through March? Doubt it. I still see this selloff wrapping up around the 11th-12th. But just because selling cools off doesn’t mean buyers are stampeding in. If we’re talking real upside, patience is key—March 25th looks more promising for that. Until then, we watch, we adapt, and we brace for the Market’s next plot twist.

Seasonal Context & Events

This marks the seventh week of earnings, noted here for reference, though the bulk of reports have already been released. There are no options expirations affecting positioning and no holidays impacting market hours or liquidity. The main factor to consider is the typical end-of-month and beginning-of-month cash flows, as funds adjust allocations and capital moves accordingly.

Key events include:

27th February 13:30UTC GDP Price Index

27th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

28th February 13:30UTC PCE Price Index

28th February 13:30UTC Personal Income & Spending

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6142
R2	6044
R1	6018
Close	6013
S1	5965
S2	5900
S3	5866

Wrap Up & Forecast

Ah yes, the classic “Hey, you know stocks, what should I buy?” question. A guaranteed lose-lose scenario.

First off, let’s get one thing straight—I’d rather personally torch $10,000 learning a painful lesson than make a mediocre return because “someone told me to.” One way, you pay tuition to the market. The other, you become dependent on someone else’s (usually flawed) judgment. And reliance on others in Markets? That’s the express lane to regret.

Also, let’s talk about the social dynamics here: If they make money, you’re a genius. If they don’t, you’re a scam artist. Who needs that?

Then there’s the classic confusion—investing vs. speculating. Two completely different universes that just happen to share a few instruments. The real question is: What do you actually want? Generational wealth that compounds over decades? Or the fantasy of sipping mojitos on a beach with zero effort? Because the first is very achievable with consistent, low-maintenance investing. The second? That’s lottery-ticket nonsense peddled by dream merchants.

If they can read English, I point them to The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. Yeah, it’s old. Yeah, it doesn’t cover everything. But if they just bought ETFs tracking broad indexes once or twice a year, they’d be miles ahead of most people. Wealth isn’t hard to create—riches are.

What happened last week? Two days up, two days down—mostly as expected. But Friday? That was a bit of a curveball. My initial forecast leaned toward a more balanced move, yet Friday’s drop was bigger than anticipated. On a weekly timeframe, it looked like a doji, but let’s be real—this wasn’t the clean textbook play I had in mind. Whether news-driven or just market mechanics, the bottom line is the same: the Market doesn’t care about Miss Technical Analysis. The only small victory? We closed right around S2. Yay, precision?

Up? Some of you are panicking—“OMG, the market will crash tomorrow!” (Relax, it’s Saturday. Joking.) A full-on crash? Unlikely. But a strong rally? Also doubtful. Any upside looks limited, and if we do get a move up, I’d expect it to struggle around the R1 level—more of a psychological barrier than a technical one.

Sideways? By the end of the week, it could look like a sideways grind.

Down? Yep, that’s a real possibility. A straight drop? Maybe, maybe not.

My outlook? I see another week of movement, but by Friday, we might just end up going in circles—like a donkey turning the waterwheel at a well, working hard but going nowhere. In short, I still expect downside to continue until the 25th, with a possible bounce starting on the 26th, potentially running up until March 3rd.

Since all S/R levels are once again outside the forecasted range of movement for the week… the blue dotted lines make their grand return!

6200$-6250$ by February 18th? The first appearance of that target was on the January 10, 2025 article. As that article stated:

“And then? Maybe an upward leg until February 18th-19th sounds plausible. But let’s be real—this won’t be all unicorns and rainbows. Corrections and sideways movements are almost guaranteed to show up along the way.”

Fast forward, and the highest high arrived on February 19th— close, but let’s not break out the champagne just yet. The peak? 6147$—a solid attempt, but 53 bucks short of the lower bound. A 1% miss might be “close enough” for some, but for those chasing excellence, it didn’t quite hit the mark. The call was 6200$-6250$, and price needed to step into that range—not hover outside like a hesitant party guest.

Next up? 5975$-5925$ by 11th March. March might not be throwing many trading opportunities, but if the setup holds, March 11th could be prime time for some strategic long-term accumulation. Let’s see if this one lands more precisely.

Seasonal Context & Events

We’re rolling into the sixth week of earnings season, but let’s be honest—the main event is pretty much over. What’s left? A few stragglers like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot taking their sweet time to report, plus a handful of small-cap names that most people won’t pay much attention to but still deserve a glance. Translation: earnings season is winding down.

Meanwhile, options expiration is lurking for next Friday, which means the usual end-of-week chaos could make an appearance. Oh, and let’s not forget the Market is taking a breather on the 17th for Washington’s Birthday—because even the algorithms need a holiday.

Key events include:

19th February 19:00UTC FOMC Minutes

20th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6249
R2	6212
R1	6188
Close	6114
S1	6054
S2	6013
S3	5962

Wrap Up & Forecast

Not much to dissect from last week—nothing that screamed, “Hey, here’s a fresh lesson to tattoo on your trading soul.” And yes, because knowledge isn’t something you “get” and then keep forever—it’s a treadmill, not an escalator. Someone once told me, “The difference between an expert and an amateur is just the time between mistakes.” Brutal. Accurate.

Speaking of amateurs, let’s talk about the 12th—a masterclass in why decisions should never be made at the open. Sure, you can act on a well-thought-out plan based on the previous day’s close. But jumping in just because a candle had the audacity to form? That’s a different game, and not one worth playing. Those giant gap-ups and gap-downs? They’re just a parade of traders making emotional decisions instead of sticking to a strategy. Do I like it? Do I hate it? Neither. It happens. The Market doesn’t care, and neither do I.

What happened last week? Ah, last week—where expectations met reality and promptly got ignored. I was eyeing that past Friday down move to keep rolling until the 12th, but the Market, in its infinite wisdom, decided, “Nah.” Did I lose sleep over it? Hardly. Being wrong is part of the game, and if you’re clinging to your predictions like a toddler to a security blanket, you’re setting yourself up for heartbreak. I stay detached, adjust, and keep moving.

Instead, we got a textbook sideways shuffle—until the 12th, when things finally got interesting, right on schedule. Some folks love to scream “trap!” when the Market does something they didn’t anticipate. It’s not a trap. It’s just people making emotional decisions instead of, you know, using actual evidence. If you call it a trap, what you’re really saying is, “I got played.” Own it. Learn from it. Move on.

By Thursday, price strutted above that lovely formation I sketched out with my highly advanced, borderline mystical technical analysis tools. Then Friday, the Market got a little shy—tried retesting the upper trendline, flirted with the high of 6127.47, and missed the target by a whopping $0.53. Devastating, truly—except I don’t count (or care about) pennies. Close enough is close enough.

What’s next? Guess!

Up? To where? Well, at the moment not far away there is potential for a short rise to the R1 level around 6188$.

Sideways? To me sideways means that the open on Monday will be close by to the close of Friday and it is actually a higher than past analysis probabilties.

Down? Well, for down will have to look around S2 level, but more in between S1 and S2 so between 6054$ and 6013$.

My outlook? If you’re staring at your charts like they’re speaking an alien language, congratulations—you’re in good company. Mine aren’t exactly whispering sweet nothings either. So yeah, welcome to the club.

Here’s what’s on the radar: it’s a short week, options expiration is coming up, and earnings season is fading into the background. That mix could lead to some stalling on the second trading day around R1, which means by next Friday, we might just end up right around Tuesday’s open. Exciting? Not particularly.

6200$-6250$ by February 18th? Unless the Market suddenly decides to pull off an 80-point sprint in a day, I wouldn’t bet on it. But hey, let’s check back next week and see just how accurate (or hilariously off) this forecast turns out to be.

Next stop? 6000$-6050$ by mid-March. If you’ve been following along since my first 2025 write-up, you’ll remember I’ve had my eye on the first two weeks of March for a drop. Whether the Market decides to play nice with that plan? We’ll find out soon enough.

Seasonal Context & Events

The fifth week of earnings season is here, bringing reports from Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors, with retailers, energy giants, utility companies, and healthcare firms stepping into the spotlight. No holidays, no options expirations—just another full week of Market movement shaped by earnings results and whatever narratives investors decide to latch onto.

Key events include:

11th February 15:00UTC Fed Chair Powell Testimony

12th February 13:30UTC Inflation Rate

12th February 13:30UTC CPI

12th February 15:00UTC Fed Chair Powell Testimony

13th February 13:30UTC PPI

13th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6182
R2	6152
R1	6128
Close	6025
S1	5910
S2	5877
S3	5846

Wrap Up & Forecast

Some might call it déjà vu—and honestly, how often does that happen? Hard to say. But if you’ve found yourself staring at the charts thinking, “I’ve seen this before,” just go back a week and you’ll find the exact same behavior playing out.

I won’t sit here and say, “I expected that,” but after Friday’s tariff news, I can say I took advantage of it before the close. Did it play out the way I like? Not really—I prefer a flowing Market, not a choppy one. In these conditions, spreads widen (I don’t fight computers—I buy at the ask, sell at the bid, since I’m trading for dollars, not pennies), price action gets messy, and any move tends to lose momentum fast.

Did I manage to close my positions? Honestly, only half of them. And for the past five days, I’ve bounced between “I should have closed all of it” and “More downside is coming.”

Do I blame the Market? No.
Do I blame the participants? Nope.

I’m just a person managing my own trading, projecting my own thoughts onto charts. I take losses the same way I take gains—what matters is that, over time, the gains outnumber the losses. Simple as that.

I’ve removed some metrics from the article. Why? Because I reminded myself that things get way too foggy when you try to juggle too many complex variables at once. Personally, I’ve always had a clearer outlook by just focusing on price action and a few solid indicators—nothing fancy, just the usual suspects: MACD, RSI, ATR, Bollinger Bands, and so on.

And as my blog says, “Keep it simple, stupid.” So, we’re going back to simple, stupid stuff. The Market is a fascinating place—you can make it as complicated or as easy as you want. That’s just how it is when numbers get involved. When forecasts start feeling foggy, what you need is clarity—not more complexity.

What happened last week? Gap down at the open—once again, thanks to “bad news.” The low (5923$) landed right on target at 5920$ (expected range was 5970$-5920$), hovering around S2 at 5916$. Then, just like the previous week, the Market spent the rest of the time climbing back up, closing that gap. I was expecting something to happen between the 5th and 7th, and Friday’s move on the 7th? That was exactly what I had been waiting for. Wouldn’t mind another bite, of course. But the Market rarely cares about what “I” want.

Just for fun, I changed the color of the five candles from the week of January 27th to yellow—same for the five candles from the week of February 3rd but in blue.

What’s next? Yep, the usual choices: Up, Sideways, or Down.

Up? Always a possibility. But what about probabilities? They look better than last week, simply because the Market has spent two weeks trying to decline and repeatedly found buyers at lower levels. Earnings are still rolling in, and they tend to support upward movement. Up to where? I wouldn’t be surprised for the Market making new highs so yeah R1 and R2 range would fit.

Sideways? Definitely possible. Some might argue that the Market has already been moving sideways since January 24th—and honestly, they wouldn’t be entirely wrong. It really depends on what you mean by “sideways.”

Down? Last but not least—if the Market decides it’s time to take a breather, I’d be watching for strong support around 6000$, given its psychological significance. If that doesn’t hold, then I’d be looking at R1 as the next level to step in.

My outlook? Unless something major shakes things up over the weekend, the Market usually tries to stay consistent with Friday’s action. Sure, there will be some adjustments at the open as people price in weekend events, but after that, it tends to stick to the script. What does that mean? I still see some downside that could last until around February 12th, and after that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Market snapping back up.

6200$-6250$ by February 18th? Still looks solid. Let’s see how it plays out.

I’ve also sketched out what my eyes are picking up on. I don’t usually give much weight to these formations until they actually break out—either up or down—from the trendlines shaping them. So, for now, technically, there’s nothing there. No broadening top formation, just lines waiting for confirmation.

Someone smarter than me might point out that there are other patterns on different Market Indexes that typically signal a move down. It’s up to you to check if that holds true or not.

Seasonal Context & Events

The fourth week of earnings season continues, with Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples remaining the primary focus. Next week, attention will shift to Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors. There are no holidays or options expirations this week, keeping the schedule uninterrupted. However, the first few days of the week may still be influenced by inflows and outflows as funds and investors adjust their positions, potentially impacting market movement before stabilizing later in the week.

Key events include:

03rd February 15:00 UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI

04th February 15:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings

05th February 15:00UTC ISM Services PMI

06th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

07th February 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
27/01/2025	0.69
28/01/2025	0.30
29/01/2025	0.41
30/01/2025	0.82
31/01/2025	0.24

Quite clear tendency to remain low.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
2.69	0.75
2.21	0.63

Declined from last week, but still inconsistent reading for a rally to the up.

Coherence

SP500	+1.18%
RUT	-0.08%
DJT	-1.71%

Can’t see coherence, profit taking, slowing down.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6201
R2	6192
R1	6176
Close	6040
S1	5916
S2	5891
S3	5856

Wrap Up & Forecast

Yep, “Buy the rumor, sell the news”—classic. But when you prioritize quantity over quality, you’ll eventually find yourself in a less-than-ideal position. What had people panicking on Monday quickly turned out to be a low-quality fear—one of those overreactions that, in hindsight, makes little sense. Unless you’re trading, investing, or flipping coins on a completely different set of rules, that move soon proved to be untradable—like most of those dramatic openings that gap far from the previous close due to some X event.

In the coming days, you’ll see some people asking themselves, “What the hell did I just do?” while others will be thinking, “I love this.” The difference? One reacts, the other acts. It’s up to you to figure out who does what, but the answer isn’t exactly hidden. Small hint—reacting in the Market often leads to losses or, at best, flawed analysis. How do you know if you reacted or actually acted with intention? Simple—if you don’t like the outcome, there’s a 99.99999% chance you just reacted.

To save the hassle of flipping back through previous articles, I’ve updated the chart to include last week’s lines, making it easier to see how the Market moved relative to the forecast. And as always, at the bottom, you’ll find the chart for the coming week’s outlook.

What happened last week? Our linear thinking, based on the forecasted range-bound behavior between 6000$ and 6100$, would have suggested one of two scenarios: either a dip toward 6000$ followed by a climb to 6100$ by the end of the week, or, factoring in some event-driven volatility and earnings noise, a choppy ride with long wicks bouncing between those levels. But the Market has its own way of keeping things interesting—sometimes all it takes is a couple of headlines to flip the script.

The Market gapped down on Monday, dropping below the expected range to 5969$ close by S1. But funny enough, it still managed to close at 6012$—almost as if there was a reason for that, right? And from there, it climbed right toward 6100$ and then we all know what happened on Friday on the last hours (or you can just look below).

What’s next? Since the dawn of the stock market, the options have always been the same: up, sideways, or down.

Up? Sure, it’s in the mix. But meh—just looking at the candlesticks, this move seems like a retest of the January 24th high, which didn’t exactly power through resistance. Will it break next week? Well, yeah—up is always on the table, so it could happen. But if you’re paying attention to any indicator that tracks divergence (which, let’s be honest, is most indicators), you might notice a slight bearish divergence between price action and where the indicators are sitting. If you’re eyeing the upside, that’s something to keep in mind.

Sideways? Also a possibility. But let’s be real—sideways is just meh. Whether you’re a trader or an investor, you know it’s the least entertaining scenario (unless, of course, you’re into those bizarre options strategies that thrive on nothing happening).

Down? Always an option! Down to where? I’d be looking at the 5970$-5920$ range. Yep, away from al R levels.

As for my outlook? Same as previously mentioned—I still expect a dip starting around February 5th-7th, lasting until February 10th-12th, followed by a short-lived move back up toward 6200$-6250$. Honestly, I don’t have a specific downside target in mind. I’ll just let the blue dotted lines and green lines do the talking.

Yep, had to push my 6200$-6250$ target back a bit—now looking closer to February 18th. Let’s see how that plays out.