As the title indicates, this update is not related to the stock market. Over the past two weeks, life has taken an unexpected turn that will unfortunately require me to step back from being as active in the market and, as a result, limit the time available to continue producing these articles for the foreseeable future.

I would like to sincerely thank the donors and the followers who engaged with me on LinkedIn. Your support, input, and ideas have been greatly appreciated and will remain in consideration if and when this type of work resumes.

The stock market remains a valuable place for long-term capital allocation. If you ever face a period that pulls your attention away from active participation, my only suggestion is to remain invested and allow idle capital to continue working. Even the way Berkshire Hathaway reports and allocates capital can offer useful perspective in that regard.

Stepping away from speculation does not necessarily mean stepping away from the market altogether. Even if active trading is no longer the focus, maintaining long-term exposure can still make sense. For those who prefer a simpler approach, ETFs that track major market indexes may serve that purpose well. The key point is to remain invested rather than exit the market completely.

Note: Material currently available on the website may remain accessible for roughly the next week, although the exact date is not yet known. If there is an article that was particularly useful—especially among the older posts—this would be the appropriate time to save a copy.

Long-Term

Decennial Pattern & Performance

The table averages market performance for each calendar year ending in the same digit and shows how often those years closed up or down. We’ve now in the year ending in 6, which historically has closed in positive territory over 70% of the time. However, the average gains in such years tend to be more modest—especially when compared to the typically stronger performance seen in years ending in 5.

Please note that the up/down counts in the table reflect only the direction of the yearly close and do not distinguish between small or large gains or losses. A year marked as “up” may include increases as minimal as 0.1%.

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Avg %	1.34%	1.38%	0.64%	16.27%	7.97%	21.44%	9.41%	1.49%	10.07%	10.37%
Up/Down	5/5	5/5	6/4	8/2	7/3	9/1	7/2	6/3	7/3	7/3

---

Kitchin Cycle

The Kitchin Cycle is a short-term business cycle lasting approximately 40.68 months, or about 3.4 years. First identified by economist Joseph Kitchin in the 1920s, it reflects recurring fluctuations in production and inventories. These cycles are driven by delays in information flow and business decision-making — companies respond to market signals with a lag, often overcorrecting by overproducing or underproducing. The result is a rhythmic, short-term economic pulse, distinct from longer cycles like Juglar or Kondratiev waves. Source: Technical Analysis Explained – Martin J. Pring.

Last Forecast Date	Type	Actual Date	Actual Direction	Next Peak	Next Valley
09/04/2025	Valley	07/04/2025	Up untill next peak	23/04/2027	08/12/2028

---

Presidential Cycle

Midterm Year (Year 2):
The second year is historically the most difficult. The weakness from late in Year 1 can spill over, and the first half of the year is often dominated by hesitancy, uneven growth, or outright declines. Political uncertainty around midterm elections tends to weigh on sentiment, while policy adjustments or tighter monetary conditions can add to the pressure. The turning point usually comes in the latter part of the year. By autumn, markets often carve out an important low, setting the stage for a strong rebound in the final quarter, as election results bring clarity and forward-looking investors position for the next phase of the cycle.

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Mid-Term

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Avg.

+1.2%

-0.2%

+0.4%

+1.1%

0.0%

+0.9%

+1.4%

+0.5%

-1.1%

+0.5%

+0.9%

+1.2%

% Up

62%

53%

60%

62%

61%

58%

61%

58%

46%

58%

58%

73%

---

Sector Signals and Relative Strength

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---

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Monthly Forecasts

FEBRUARY

The choppy, range-bound behavior observed in the final days of January may persist into around February 12, where a potential upside phase could begin to develop. If that advance materializes, it may extend toward February 24, after which the market could transition into a choppy, corrective decline, characterized more by uneven pullbacks and consolidation than a clean directional sell-off.

FEBRUARY’s DOI: 12th, 24th.

DOIs: “DOI” refers to “Date of Interest” — a term used to highlight specific days when potential market reversals or periods of heightened volatility may occur. The methodology behind the identification of these dates has not been disclosed in previous publications and will remain confidential in future ones.

Short-Term

S&P500

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Summary

Long-Term View
Both the Decennial Pattern and broader long-term historical trends suggest that 2026 may remain a positive year for equities, although gains may be more moderate than the exceptional performance recorded in 2025. While return expectations may normalize, the broader backdrop remains constructive for long-term investors, supported in part by the Kitchin Cycle, which continues to indicate a mild upside bias and gradual underlying strength.

At the same time, 2026 is a U.S. midterm election year, a period that has historically been associated with elevated uncertainty and intermittent market weakness, particularly during the first half of the year. This tendency is consistent with the current outlook, which anticipated early-January softness, a mid-month pullback, and a recovery phase that could extend through much of the first quarter.

The January Barometer is indicating some weakness into the final days of February, followed by a stabilization phase heading into March, with a largely sideways pattern potentially persisting until the last days of the month.

Shorter-term forecasts also point to some weakness during the first part of the final week of February, followed by a recovery into the end of the week and month-end close.

Mid-Term View

Seasonal patterns indicate a measure of strength in the final days of February and into March, which contrasts with the weaker signals outlined above.

On the DJU chart, the setup appears to be approaching another potentially significant down leg. The January down leg did not fully transmit to the S&P 500, which instead produced a largely sideways month. The next several sessions should provide clearer evidence as to whether the current setup develops differently.

There is no meaningful divergence to highlight in the S&P 500 vs. SPXEW relationship. The primary feature remains the trading range that has persisted for roughly the past two months. If drawn more precisely, that range can be characterized as a rectangle with a slight downward tilt, which is a relevant structural detail.

In the XBD vs. XLP Relative Strength chart, the primary trend remains down, as reflected by the highlighted yellow trendlines. However, this week showed a pause in that trend, which may indicate the early stages of a potential trend change.

The monthly forecasts identify the 24th as a DOI and continue to suggest a choppy corrective decline into month-end.

Short-Term View

On the S/R Heatmap, resistance remains elevated near 6,910, while support is also clearly present, with several levels positioned just below current price. In this configuration, an upside breakout would likely have a cleaner path higher, whereas a downside breakout could face a choppier move due to the layered support beneath.

A similar structure appears on the OI Heatmap, although the resistance levels are positioned somewhat higher than on the S/R Heatmap. The first resistance area is visible near 6,950, followed by a stronger wall (or potential magnet) around 7,010. Support is less concentrated immediately below price, with the first meaningful OI cluster appearing near 6,750.

On volatility, price action once again tested the boundary of the “Caution Rising” zone this week before retreating lower. The current move suggests a renewed pullback phase that may persist until the next test of the uptrend line.

What’s Ahead

With earnings season now largely behind the market and March approaching, attention is shifting toward the early phase of earnings-warning season, which can begin to influence sentiment and forward expectations. This week’s calendar is relatively clean, with no market holidays and no options expiration to drive event-related positioning flows. However, end-of-month inflows and outflows may begin to have a greater impact on price action in the final days of the week.

EVENTS

• 26th February 2026 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 27th February 2026 13:30UTC PPI

Outlook & Expectations

For the week ahead, the near-term tilt remains negative. Despite a shortened four-day schedule, market conditions could support more sustained selling pressure. The 6,710 area stands out as an important support zone and may help contain downside for a period. If the bearish scenario fails to develop, upside durability still appears limited, with 6,920 remaining a key level that may be difficult for price to hold above for an extended time.

The Tuesday session attempted to start the week on a weaker footing but found support at 6,775 (versus the expected 6,710 level). From there, price rebounded and then transitioned into three sessions of sideways trading, remaining below the resistance level at 6,920. The weekly high reached 6,915, reinforcing that resistance zone.

From a long-term perspective, the expectation had been for a decline, based on both the broader chart structure and prevailing sentiment. Instead, the extended sideways phase has produced what can be described as a form of reverse divergence—or, in this framework, a market that is “re-loading.” In practical terms, this refers to sideways price action occurring while indicators continue to rise or decline gradually in the background. The implication is a continuation of mostly sideways trading with a slight upward tilt into May, after which a more meaningful decline for longer-term holdings may begin to develop. Current forecasts suggest a bottom around mid-May, while the chart-based read points more toward mid-June. For now, however, the dominant feature remains a lack of direction, with price still confined to a range.

For the week ahead, the bias remains bullish, with the primary target still near the 7,010 level. However, if directional confirmation does not emerge, a test of that level would more likely be followed by a pullback rather than a sustained breakout.

Long-Term

Decennial Pattern & Performance

The table averages market performance for each calendar year ending in the same digit and shows how often those years closed up or down. We’ve now in the year ending in 6, which historically has closed in positive territory over 70% of the time. However, the average gains in such years tend to be more modest—especially when compared to the typically stronger performance seen in years ending in 5.

Please note that the up/down counts in the table reflect only the direction of the yearly close and do not distinguish between small or large gains or losses. A year marked as “up” may include increases as minimal as 0.1%.

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Avg %	1.34%	1.38%	0.64%	16.27%	7.97%	21.44%	9.41%	1.49%	10.07%	10.37%
Up/Down	5/5	5/5	6/4	8/2	7/3	9/1	7/2	6/3	7/3	7/3

---

Kitchin Cycle

The Kitchin Cycle is a short-term business cycle lasting approximately 40.68 months, or about 3.4 years. First identified by economist Joseph Kitchin in the 1920s, it reflects recurring fluctuations in production and inventories. These cycles are driven by delays in information flow and business decision-making — companies respond to market signals with a lag, often overcorrecting by overproducing or underproducing. The result is a rhythmic, short-term economic pulse, distinct from longer cycles like Juglar or Kondratiev waves. Source: Technical Analysis Explained – Martin J. Pring.

Last Forecast Date	Type	Actual Date	Actual Direction	Next Peak	Next Valley
09/04/2025	Valley	07/04/2025	Up untill next peak	23/04/2027	08/12/2028

---

Presidential Cycle

Midterm Year (Year 2):
The second year is historically the most difficult. The weakness from late in Year 1 can spill over, and the first half of the year is often dominated by hesitancy, uneven growth, or outright declines. Political uncertainty around midterm elections tends to weigh on sentiment, while policy adjustments or tighter monetary conditions can add to the pressure. The turning point usually comes in the latter part of the year. By autumn, markets often carve out an important low, setting the stage for a strong rebound in the final quarter, as election results bring clarity and forward-looking investors position for the next phase of the cycle.

---

---

---

Mid-Term

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Avg.

+1.2%

-0.2%

+0.4%

+1.1%

0.0%

+0.9%

+1.4%

+0.5%

-1.1%

+0.5%

+0.9%

+1.2%

% Up

62%

53%

60%

62%

61%

58%

61%

58%

46%

58%

58%

73%

---

Sector Signals and Relative Strength

---

---

---

Monthly Forecasts

FEBRUARY

The choppy, range-bound behavior observed in the final days of January may persist into around February 12, where a potential upside phase could begin to develop. If that advance materializes, it may extend toward February 24, after which the market could transition into a choppy, corrective decline, characterized more by uneven pullbacks and consolidation than a clean directional sell-off.

FEBRUARY’s DOI: 12th, 24th.

DOIs: “DOI” refers to “Date of Interest” — a term used to highlight specific days when potential market reversals or periods of heightened volatility may occur. The methodology behind the identification of these dates has not been disclosed in previous publications and will remain confidential in future ones.

Short-Term

S&P500

---

---

---

Summary

Long-Term View
Both the Decennial Pattern and long-term historical trends suggest that 2026 may prove positive for equities, although likely with more moderate gains than the exceptional performance seen in 2025. While returns may temper, the broader backdrop remains constructive for long-term investors, supported in part by the Kitchin Cycle, which continues to imply a mild upside bias and a gradual underlying strength.

That said, 2026 is also a U.S. midterm election year—historically a period associated with elevated uncertainty and episodic market weakness, particularly during the first half of the year. This tendency aligns with the current outlook, which anticipated early-January softness, a mid-month pullback, and a recovery phase that could extend through much of the first quarter.

The January Barometer signal for 2026 is now in place, and the current read points to a largely sideways market through July, followed by a potentially significant decline, and then a meaningful recovery into year-end. If this sideways phase develops as expected, opportunities may still emerge between February and July; however, the January Barometer will be used primarily as a “thermometer” in conjunction with other indicators, rather than as a standalone directional tool.

Mid-Term View

Seasonal and monthly performance results in the referenced dataset indicate that February has historically been a less supportive period for equities. In this sample, February produced only marginal performance, closing higher slightly more than half the time (approximately 53%) and averaging near -0.2%. The same seasonality work also points to a firmer tone early in the month, followed by a higher probability of softness into mid-February—consistent with a pattern in which early-month positioning gives way to profit-taking, rotation, and a more selective tape.

Turning to the DJU, the chart is approaching a time-based window tied to the major decline that began on December 1, 2025. Projecting that move forward by 55 candles places the next timing marker around February 20, 2026 (± one week, or roughly five candles). Whether it materializes remains to be seen, but at present it stands out as the only clear bearish signal among the indicators referenced on this page. It is also notable that the right edge of the chart reflects a pronounced upside acceleration in DJU.

On the SPXEW versus SPX relationship, there is no divergence to highlight at this stage. The primary development is a visible compression in the S&P 500’s swings, suggesting a tightening range and a more controlled volatility profile relative to prior weeks. If sustained, that contraction can act as a precondition for a larger directional move, making subsequent breaks of key levels more informative.

Finally, in the relative-strength work for XLP and XBD, both lines remain in a broader downtrend punctuated by intermittent pauses. The dominant structure continues to be lower lows and lower highs across both series, reinforcing a risk posture that has not yet fully reset. The main exception is the isolated, sharp one-day surge in XBD, which stands out as a brief countertrend impulse rather than a confirmed change in trend.

On the S/R heatmap, support at—or very near—the latest close appears well-defined. A lighter resistance band sits immediately overhead, with a more prominent resistance zone positioned slightly higher. The OI heatmap continues to highlight a strong resistance region between 6,900 and 7,000. Notably, the nearest support concentrations for the week are positioned materially below the last close, indicating that the range has widened with a clearer skew to the downside.

On volatility, the VIX continues to respect its rising trendline support and rebounded from that level again this week. Trendlines on the VIX are drawn using a consistent internal rule: the downtrend line is anchored on the closes of green candles, and the uptrend line is anchored on the closes of red candles.

What’s Ahead

With earnings season approaching its conclusion, near-term price action is increasingly likely to be shaped by positioning and macro catalysts rather than incremental earnings updates. Calendar effects also become more relevant: it is the third Wednesday of the month, monthly options expiration falls next Friday, and the week is shortened with U.S. markets closed on Monday, February 16 for Washington’s Birthday. At the same time, the absence of end-of-month inflows and outflows reduces the likelihood of month-end rebalancing effects, keeping the focus on event-driven volatility and options-related positioning into expiration.

EVENTS

• 18th February 2026 19:00UTC FOMC Minutes
• 19th February 2026 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 20th February 2026 13:30UTC GDP

Outlook & Expectations

Among the monitored indicators, DJU is the only one currently pointing lower, while the remainder continue to lean higher. Near term, the setup allows for a firmer start to the week that retests the lower edge of the overhead resistance cluster on the OI/S&R work near 7,000.

The next potential inflection window is February 12 (DOI), followed by the CPI/inflation release on February 13. The market’s reaction to that data is inherently uncertain; operationally, a close above the resistance cluster on the S/R heatmap would be a constructive confirmation for long exposure. If momentum rebuilds, the move could extend into the next DOI window around February 24.

The week opened in line with the forecast, with price action initially moving toward the identified resistance cluster. After several sessions of consolidation, the market rolled over on Thursday the 12th—an identified DOI—posting a -1.57% decline. On the 13th, futures were trading lower into the macroeconomic release at 13:30 UTC, after which the data-driven reaction lifted futures back toward flat but the rise lost its steam during the session.

If you use daily indicators that can flag divergence, you may have noticed repeated bearish divergences that have not translated into sustained downside. A common way to contextualize this is to review the same indicator on the weekly timeframe, with particular attention to its broader positioning and trend structure. Divergences tend to be conditional: when they fail to play out, the higher-timeframe context often explains why.

Looking ahead, with earnings season largely in the rear-view and the market moving beyond its historically stronger stretch, the extended sideways phase elevates the risk of a corrective move. While timing is uncertain, the next key window to monitor falls between Friday, February 20 (DJU date) and Tuesday, February 24 (DOI). IF downside momentum emerges ALONGSIDE A MEANINGFUL CATALYST, a deeper retracement remains plausible, including a move toward the 6,100 area. The broader setup continues to reflect downside risk, BUT directional confirmation remains the critical missing component. A lack of decisive direction can, at times, indicate positioning ahead of another push higher, whereas a clear break typically determines which outcome carries higher probability.

For the week ahead, the near-term tilt remains negative. Despite a shortened four-day schedule, market conditions could support more sustained selling pressure. The 6,710 area stands out as an important support zone and may help contain downside for a period. If the bearish scenario fails to develop, upside durability still appears limited, with 6,920 remaining a key level that may be difficult for price to hold above for an extended time.

Notes

1. Cryptocurrency coverage is not part of this work and is not expected to be included going forward.
2. Blog posts are shared on LinkedIn. Private messages are welcome, but there is no management of third-party capital, and there is no intent to do so in the foreseeable future.

Long-Term

Decennial Pattern & Performance

The table averages market performance for each calendar year ending in the same digit and shows how often those years closed up or down. We’ve now in the year ending in 6, which historically has closed in positive territory over 70% of the time. However, the average gains in such years tend to be more modest—especially when compared to the typically stronger performance seen in years ending in 5.

Please note that the up/down counts in the table reflect only the direction of the yearly close and do not distinguish between small or large gains or losses. A year marked as “up” may include increases as minimal as 0.1%.

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Avg %	1.34%	1.38%	0.64%	16.27%	7.97%	21.44%	9.41%	1.49%	10.07%	10.37%
Up/Down	5/5	5/5	6/4	8/2	7/3	9/1	7/2	6/3	7/3	7/3

---

Kitchin Cycle

The Kitchin Cycle is a short-term business cycle lasting approximately 40.68 months, or about 3.4 years. First identified by economist Joseph Kitchin in the 1920s, it reflects recurring fluctuations in production and inventories. These cycles are driven by delays in information flow and business decision-making — companies respond to market signals with a lag, often overcorrecting by overproducing or underproducing. The result is a rhythmic, short-term economic pulse, distinct from longer cycles like Juglar or Kondratiev waves. Source: Technical Analysis Explained – Martin J. Pring.

Last Forecast Date	Type	Actual Date	Actual Direction	Next Peak	Next Valley
09/04/2025	Valley	07/04/2025	Up untill next peak	23/04/2027	08/12/2028

---

Presidential Cycle

Midterm Year (Year 2):
The second year is historically the most difficult. The weakness from late in Year 1 can spill over, and the first half of the year is often dominated by hesitancy, uneven growth, or outright declines. Political uncertainty around midterm elections tends to weigh on sentiment, while policy adjustments or tighter monetary conditions can add to the pressure. The turning point usually comes in the latter part of the year. By autumn, markets often carve out an important low, setting the stage for a strong rebound in the final quarter, as election results bring clarity and forward-looking investors position for the next phase of the cycle.

---

---

---

Mid-Term

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Avg.

+1.2%

-0.2%

+0.4%

+1.1%

0.0%

+0.9%

+1.4%

+0.5%

-1.1%

+0.5%

+0.9%

+1.2%

% Up

62%

53%

60%

62%

61%

58%

61%

58%

46%

58%

58%

73%

---

Sector Signals and Relative Strength

---

---

---

Monthly Forecasts

FEBRUARY

The choppy, range-bound behavior observed in the final days of January may persist into around February 12, where a potential upside phase could begin to develop. If that advance materializes, it may extend toward February 24, after which the market could transition into a choppy, corrective decline, characterized more by uneven pullbacks and consolidation than a clean directional sell-off.

FEBRUARY’s DOI: 12th, 24th.

DOIs: “DOI” refers to “Date of Interest” — a term used to highlight specific days when potential market reversals or periods of heightened volatility may occur. The methodology behind the identification of these dates has not been disclosed in previous publications and will remain confidential in future ones.

Short-Term

S&P500

---

---

---

Summary

Long-Term View
Both the Decennial Pattern and long-term historical trends suggest that 2026 may prove positive for equities, although likely with more moderate gains than the exceptional performance seen in 2025. While returns may temper, the broader backdrop remains constructive for long-term investors, supported in part by the Kitchin Cycle, which continues to imply a mild upside bias and a gradual underlying strength.

That said, 2026 is also a U.S. midterm election year—historically a period associated with elevated uncertainty and episodic market weakness, particularly during the first half of the year. This tendency aligns with the current outlook, which anticipated early-January softness, a mid-month pullback, and a recovery phase that could extend through much of the first quarter.

The January Barometer signal for 2026 is now in place, and the current read points to a largely sideways market through July, followed by a potentially significant decline, and then a meaningful recovery into year-end. If this sideways phase develops as expected, opportunities may still emerge between February and July; however, the January Barometer will be used primarily as a “thermometer” in conjunction with other indicators, rather than as a standalone directional tool.

Mid-Term View

Seasonal and monthly performance statistics suggest February has historically been a less supportive period for equities. In the dataset referenced, February delivered only marginal performance, finishing higher only slightly more than half the time (about 53%), with an average return near -0.2%. Seasonality also tends to imply a firmer tone early in the month, followed by an increased probability of weakness into mid-February—consistent with early-month positioning giving way to profit-taking and sector rotation.

Within that context, the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJU) did not provide a notably strong January tailwind, despite the broader “best-months” concept that historically concentrates stronger equity performance in the late-fall through early-spring window (commonly framed as November through April). More generally, recent price action across major U.S. benchmarks has shown repeated attempts at selling pressure since mid-January that were met with fast dip-buying, helping keep indexes range-bound through earnings.

Breadth signals, as proxied by the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) versus the capitalization-weighted S&P 500, have not shown a clear divergence or a distinct pattern that would materially alter the broader read. In relative-strength terms, the recent convergence between Consumer Staples (XLP) and broker/dealer exposure (XBD) coincided with a pullback that stabilized into Friday.

The S&P 500 support/resistance heatmap continues to show a heavier resistance band overhead relative to the near-term support zone immediately below current levels. In the open interest (OI) heatmap, the trading range has widened modestly versus the prior two weeks. Positioning has also shifted: concentration above spot has diminished, while OI has increased on strikes below, suggesting relatively greater emphasis on levels underneath the market.

Volatility remains a key variable. The VIX has been trending higher, including a breakout above the falling trendline highlighted on last week’s chart. The index also reached the “Caution Rising” zone, a level that historically has coincided with near-term stabilization, and it subsequently pulled back from that area.

What’s Ahead

With earnings season in progress, near-term price action is being driven primarily by company results and guidance rather than calendar-related catalysts. The week also lacks typical event-driven flows: there are no major options expirations, no market holidays, and no end-of-month rebalancing or month-end inflow/outflow effects to distort positioning. As the second Wednesday of the month, the session sits in a relatively “clean” part of the calendar, leaving fundamentals and earnings-related positioning as the dominant influences on intraday volatility and index direction.

EVENTS

• 11th February 2026 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate
• 12th February 2026 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 13th February 2026 13:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 13th February 2026 13:30UTC CPI

Outlook & Expectations

Forecasts continue to suggest back-and-forth price action contained within 7,024 (resistance) and 6,851 (support). A daily close above resistance or below support would be the first development likely to shift my attention from observation to action; otherwise, the base case remains consolidation. The next DOI to monitor is February 12.

The S&P 500 weekly candle broadly tracked the forecast path. Price action was largely contained within the 7,024–6,851 range, with the upper boundary acting as an effective cap; however, a daily close below 6,851 drove an extension toward 6,780.

Among the monitored indicators, DJU is the only one currently pointing lower, while the remainder continue to lean higher. Near term, the setup allows for a firmer start to the week that retests the lower edge of the overhead resistance cluster on the OI/S&R work near 7,000.

The next potential inflection window is February 12 (DOI), followed by the CPI/inflation release on February 13. The market’s reaction to that data is inherently uncertain; operationally, a close above the resistance cluster on the S/R heatmap would be a constructive confirmation for long exposure. If momentum rebuilds, the move could extend into the next DOI window around February 24.

As earnings season winds down, and consistent with Edson Gould’s observation that a failure to rally during bullish seasonal periods can signal underlying pressure that asserts itself when the seasonal window ends, the probability of profit-taking increases later in the month. A downside scenario remains possible; if macro data or positioning triggers a broader risk-off response, late February becomes the next focal window.

Long-Term

Decennial Pattern & Performance

The table averages market performance for each calendar year ending in the same digit and shows how often those years closed up or down. We’ve now in the year ending in 6, which historically has closed in positive territory over 70% of the time. However, the average gains in such years tend to be more modest—especially when compared to the typically stronger performance seen in years ending in 5.

Please note that the up/down counts in the table reflect only the direction of the yearly close and do not distinguish between small or large gains or losses. A year marked as “up” may include increases as minimal as 0.1%.

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Avg %	1.34%	1.38%	0.64%	16.27%	7.97%	21.44%	9.41%	1.49%	10.07%	10.37%
Up/Down	5/5	5/5	6/4	8/2	7/3	9/1	7/2	6/3	7/3	7/3

---

Kitchin Cycle

The Kitchin Cycle is a short-term business cycle lasting approximately 40.68 months, or about 3.4 years. First identified by economist Joseph Kitchin in the 1920s, it reflects recurring fluctuations in production and inventories. These cycles are driven by delays in information flow and business decision-making — companies respond to market signals with a lag, often overcorrecting by overproducing or underproducing. The result is a rhythmic, short-term economic pulse, distinct from longer cycles like Juglar or Kondratiev waves. Source: Technical Analysis Explained – Martin J. Pring.

Last Forecast Date	Type	Actual Date	Actual Direction	Next Peak	Next Valley
09/04/2025	Valley	07/04/2025	Up untill next peak	23/04/2027	08/12/2028

---

Presidential Cycle

Midterm Year (Year 2):
The second year is historically the most difficult. The weakness from late in Year 1 can spill over, and the first half of the year is often dominated by hesitancy, uneven growth, or outright declines. Political uncertainty around midterm elections tends to weigh on sentiment, while policy adjustments or tighter monetary conditions can add to the pressure. The turning point usually comes in the latter part of the year. By autumn, markets often carve out an important low, setting the stage for a strong rebound in the final quarter, as election results bring clarity and forward-looking investors position for the next phase of the cycle.

---

---

---

Mid-Term

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Avg.

+1.2%

-0.2%

+0.4%

+1.1%

0.0%

+0.9%

+1.4%

+0.5%

-1.1%

+0.5%

+0.9%

+1.2%

% Up

62%

53%

60%

62%

61%

58%

61%

58%

46%

58%

58%

73%

---

Sector Signals and Relative Strength

---

---

---

Monthly Forecasts

FEBRUARY

The choppy, range-bound behavior observed in the final days of January may persist into around February 12, where a potential upside phase could begin to develop. If that advance materializes, it may extend toward February 24, after which the market could transition into a choppy, corrective decline, characterized more by uneven pullbacks and consolidation than a clean directional sell-off.

FEBRUARY’s DOI: 12th, 24th.

DOIs: “DOI” refers to “Date of Interest” — a term used to highlight specific days when potential market reversals or periods of heightened volatility may occur. The methodology behind the identification of these dates has not been disclosed in previous publications and will remain confidential in future ones.

JANUARY

The outlook for January suggests a sluggish start to the year, with a slightly bullish bias in the early days. A potential shift in direction is anticipated around January 14th, likely tilting to the downside. This pullback is expected to be short-lived, with a reversal to the upside projected around January 21st, potentially leading to a strong upward move into month-end.

JANUARY’s DOI: 14th, 21st.

As reflected in the Annual S&P 500 Forecast Overview, the timing component of the forecasts proved to be quite accurate. A separate question, however, is whether those moves were consistently tradable—something that depends largely on individual style and risk tolerance. In my case, opportunities were present, but given the elevated volatility and the market’s sensitivity to headlines, I’ve generally preferred to stay selective and, at times, remain on the sidelines observing rather than forcing exposure.

Short-Term

S&P500

---

---

---

Summary

Long-Term View
Both the Decennial Pattern and long-term historical trends suggest that 2026 may prove positive for equities, although likely with more moderate gains than the exceptional performance seen in 2025. While returns may temper, the broader backdrop remains constructive for long-term investors, supported in part by the Kitchin Cycle, which continues to imply a mild upside bias and a gradual underlying strength.

That said, 2026 is also a U.S. midterm election year—historically a period associated with elevated uncertainty and episodic market weakness, particularly during the first half of the year. This tendency aligns with the current outlook, which anticipated early-January softness, a mid-month pullback, and a recovery phase that could extend through much of the first quarter.

The January Barometer signal for 2026 is now in place, and the current read points to a largely sideways market through July, followed by a potentially significant decline, and then a meaningful recovery into year-end. If this sideways phase develops as expected, opportunities may still emerge between February and July; however, the January Barometer will be used primarily as a “thermometer” in conjunction with other indicators, rather than as a standalone directional tool.

Mid-Term View

Seasonal and monthly-performance data suggest February has historically been a less supportive month, often delivering only marginal returns and closing higher only slightly more than half the time (roughly 53%, with an average near -0.2% in the dataset referenced). More broadly, seasonality tends to indicate a firmer start to the month, followed by an increased probability of weakness around mid-February, which fits the typical pattern of early-month optimism giving way to profit-taking and rotation.

From the cycle perspective, since entering the DJU “declining” segment in early January, price action has increasingly expressed itself through sideways movement and repeated sell attempts that were quickly bought, rather than a clean directional decline. As we transition into February, the DJU profile appears more sideways than decisively bearish, which could support either continued consolidation or short-lived upside swings—but still within a market that lacks sustained trend conditions.

There is little to highlight on the SPXEW versus S&P 500 relationship: no meaningful divergence and no distinct pattern that materially changes the broader read. Meanwhile, the relative-strength picture between XBD and XLP remains mixed, with the lines diverging in a way that suggests rotation rather than leadership—i.e., an environment where signals are less cohesive and directional conviction is harder to extract.

Finally, forecasts continue to point to a choppy start to February into roughly mid-month (around the 12th). In practical terms, this implies that opportunities may appear, but they are more likely to be tactical and selective rather than trend-driven—requiring patience, tighter risk controls, and confirmation rather than anticipation.

Short-Term View

What stands out is that price is currently trading against a major cluster of overhead resistance. In my view, a clean breakout through this zone is unlikely without a meaningful catalyst, and this aligns with the monthly forecast framework, which continues to suggest a sideways and choppy start to the month rather than an immediate directional expansion.

The narrow banding in the OI heat map reinforces that interpretation. Positioning remains concentrated within a tight range, which typically supports continued consolidation until a catalyst or positioning shift forces a break. At this stage, the timing of that resolution is not yet clear.

On volatility, the VIX trendline continues to hold, reflecting a gradual increase in investor caution as the market remains range-bound. I have also drawn a descending trendline across the two recent volatility peaks. A decisive break of these trendlines—paired with clearer, confirmatory signals from price action and broader market internals—could provide a more actionable entry framework. That said, any setup emerging from such a break would still be better viewed as a tactical opportunity rather than something that can be characterized as a longer-term, investment-grade positioning at this point.

What’s Ahead

Earnings season remains the dominant catalyst, with results and guidance likely to drive day-to-day sentiment and sector rotation. Structurally, the week is relatively “clean,” with no options expirations and no market holidays expected to distort liquidity or trading rhythms. That said, end-of-month inflows and outflows may still influence price action, particularly early in the week, as portfolios rebalance and residual positioning adjustments work through the tape.

EVENTS

• 03rd February 2026 15:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 05th February 2026 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 06th February 2026 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Outlook & Expectations

Talking about next week: if you rely on oscillators, the message is broadly the same across most timeframes. On shorter horizons, signals have been swinging between the mid-range and upper band; on higher timeframes, they look flat, choppy, and largely stuck around the midpoint. ATR and directional-movement style indicators tell a similar story—lines tangled together, repeatedly crossing, and at times compressing in a way that resembles a “formation flight.” The interpretation is straightforward: there is no clear trend.

We did in fact spend the week rotating between two previously identified OI levels, with no sustained trend developing. What stood out, however, was the market’s behavior on Thursday and Friday: both sell-off attempts were absorbed quickly, and the more meaningful buying appeared later in the session, particularly after the midday lull. There are several plausible explanations for this type of intraday pattern— What’s your interpretation of the late-day bid?

Heading into next week, the message remains unchanged: no clear directional edge, but a more defined “playground” is forming. I would start paying closer attention if we see tangible confirmation through one of the following: XLP and XBD aligning more consistently in the same direction, a clean break above the overhead resistance cluster, a decisive move through an OI-defined support/resistance band, or a breakout from the two VIX trendlines. Until one of those conditions is met, I’m comfortable staying on the sidelines and treating moves as range behavior rather than the start of something durable.

Forecasts continue to suggest back-and-forth price action contained within 7,024 (resistance) and 6,851 (support). A daily close above resistance or below support would be the first development likely to shift my attention from observation to action; otherwise, the base case remains consolidation. The next DOI to monitor is February 12.

Long-Term

Decennial Pattern & Performance

The table averages market performance for each calendar year ending in the same digit and shows how often those years closed up or down. We’ve now in the year ending in 6, which historically has closed in positive territory over 70% of the time. However, the average gains in such years tend to be more modest—especially when compared to the typically stronger performance seen in years ending in 5.

Please note that the up/down counts in the table reflect only the direction of the yearly close and do not distinguish between small or large gains or losses. A year marked as “up” may include increases as minimal as 0.1%.

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Avg %	1.34%	1.38%	0.64%	16.27%	7.97%	21.44%	9.41%	1.49%	10.07%	10.37%
Up/Down	5/5	5/5	6/4	8/2	7/3	9/1	7/2	6/3	7/3	7/3

---

Kitchin Cycle

The Kitchin Cycle is a short-term business cycle lasting approximately 40.68 months, or about 3.4 years. First identified by economist Joseph Kitchin in the 1920s, it reflects recurring fluctuations in production and inventories. These cycles are driven by delays in information flow and business decision-making — companies respond to market signals with a lag, often overcorrecting by overproducing or underproducing. The result is a rhythmic, short-term economic pulse, distinct from longer cycles like Juglar or Kondratiev waves. Source: Technical Analysis Explained – Martin J. Pring.

Last Forecast Date	Type	Actual Date	Actual Direction	Next Peak	Next Valley
09/04/2025	Valley	07/04/2025	Up untill next peak	23/04/2027	08/12/2028

---

Presidential Cycle

Midterm Year (Year 2):
The second year is historically the most difficult. The weakness from late in Year 1 can spill over, and the first half of the year is often dominated by hesitancy, uneven growth, or outright declines. Political uncertainty around midterm elections tends to weigh on sentiment, while policy adjustments or tighter monetary conditions can add to the pressure. The turning point usually comes in the latter part of the year. By autumn, markets often carve out an important low, setting the stage for a strong rebound in the final quarter, as election results bring clarity and forward-looking investors position for the next phase of the cycle.

---

---

---

Mid-Term

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Avg.

+1.2%

-0.2%

+0.4%

+1.1%

0.0%

+0.9%

+1.4%

+0.5%

-1.1%

+0.5%

+0.9%

+1.2%

% Up

61%

53%

60%

62%

61%

58%

61%

58%

46%

58%

58%

73%

---

Sector Signals and Relative Strength

---

---

---

Monthly Forecasts

JANUARY

The outlook for January suggests a sluggish start to the year, with a slightly bullish bias in the early days. A potential shift in direction is anticipated around January 14th, likely tilting to the downside. This pullback is expected to be short-lived, with a reversal to the upside projected around January 21st, potentially leading to a strong upward move into month-end.

JANUARY’s DOI: 14th, 21st.

DOIs: “DOI” refers to “Date of Interest” — a term used to highlight specific days when potential market reversals or periods of heightened volatility may occur. The methodology behind the identification of these dates has not been disclosed in previous publications and will remain confidential in future ones.

Short-Term

S&P500

---

---

---

Summary

Long-Term View
Both the Decennial Pattern and long-term historical trends suggest 2026 is shaping up to be another positive year for equities—albeit with more tempered gains than the standout performance of 2025. While returns may moderate, the overall backdrop remains constructive for long-term investors, supported in part by a mild upside bias from the Kitchin Cycle, which continues to point toward gradual strength.

However, 2026 also marks a midterm year in the U.S. election cycle—a period that has historically introduced heightened uncertainty and episodic market weakness, particularly in the first half of the year. This seasonal tendency aligns with current forecasts calling for early January softness, a mid-month pullback, and a subsequent rebound that could extend through much of the first quarter.

Mid-Term View

Regarding the DJU signal, I do not believe it has “failed.” What we have observed instead is a market condition that often emerges when bullish momentum coexists with underlying weakness: choppy, sideways price action rather than a clean directional move. In my view, the signal may be muted or delayed rather than invalidated, with earnings-related strength helping to mask the softer internal tone. In a quieter environment—with fewer headline shocks and less event-driven positioning—the market may have expressed that weakness more visibly, but the underlying message still warrants attention.

On the SPXEW versus S&P 500 chart, there is no material divergence to emphasize at this stage, aside from a slightly weaker tone in the cap-weighted index, which has registered a lower low relative to the prior structure. For now, this remains a secondary observation rather than a primary driver.

The more notable development is within the XBD and XLP relationship, where the two have begun to diverge. XBD is rising while XLP is falling; with XLP viewed through an inverted lens, this suggests a shift toward defensive positioning and “safer” equities, particularly as this move has broken below October levels. Whether this is immediately meaningful is not yet clear, but it is a configuration worth monitoring. The last time a similar dynamic appeared—XLP weakening while XBD was still firm—was in late January 2025, and the subsequent market behavior underscored that these rotations can matter when they persist.

Finally, monthly forecasts are calling for a stronger upward move into month-end. As a reminder, the Dates of Interest (DOIs) have historically proven more reliable for timing than for direction. As a result, the most practical takeaway is to respect the timing window while allowing price action and breadth to confirm whether the move resolves higher as projected or takes a different path.

Short-Term View

Price action has moved back to the fourth, slower-moving blue trendline, a level that has acted as an important reference in the past. The last interaction with this trendline occurred in late November 2025 and was followed by a rebound that ultimately carried the index back toward a prior peak. Whether this level produces a similar response this time remains uncertain, but the repeated respect of the same structure reinforces its relevance as a near-term inflection area.

The OI heat map shows a noticeable reduction in open interest on lower strike prices, suggesting that the “pull” from below has weakened—either due to positions being reduced/rolled or because protective demand has eased at those levels. At the same time, the overall OI-defined range remains relatively tight and continues to align with the same trading band that contained price action last week, supporting the view that the market is still operating in a compressed positioning environment.

On volatility, the VIX remains anchored to the trendline drawn three weeks ago. While the slope and follow-through are still modest, the fact that this trendline continues to hold makes it increasingly relevant as a monitoring tool. A sustained break or acceleration away from that level would be notable and could offer early confirmation of a shift in market regime or directional bias.

What’s Ahead

Earnings season remains the primary driver for market direction and volatility, with corporate results and forward guidance likely to dominate sentiment. Structurally, the week is relatively “clean,” with no options expiration and no market holidays expected to distort liquidity or trading rhythms. However, toward the end of the week, end-of-month inflows and outflows may begin to influence price action, potentially amplifying late-week moves as portfolios rebalance and positioning adjusts.

EVENTS

• 28th January 2026 19:00UTC FED Interest Rate Decision
• 28th January 2026 19:30UTC FED Press Conference
• 29th January 2026 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 30th January 2026 15:00UTC PPI

Outlook & Expectations

Looking to the upcoming week—which is shortened by the holiday—there is a reasonable case for a renewed bid once markets reopen, potentially delivering an early green close on Tuesday as liquidity normalizes. However, my base case remains cautiously bearish in the near term. I am focused on the next lower OI reference level near 6,805 as the downside objective if weakness resumes. If that scenario does not develop and we instead see the first meaningful confirmation around the January 21 window, then the bias would likely shift back toward the upper range, with 6,996 acting as the primary upside reference.

We did not get the “green Tuesday” scenario—my mistake, and a reminder that headline-driven moves are not something I can forecast. That said, the weekly bias toward weakness was directionally correct. The downside objective at 6,805 was reached quickly on Tuesday, with the index closing $9 lower at 6,796. Moves of this type, when not reinforced by higher-timeframe technical support, typically have a short life—often one to three sessions—as I have noted in prior updates. The index attempted to stabilize and recover later in the week, but ultimately finished slightly lower on a weekly closing basis.

With the new format leaving less room for personal observations, I will keep this brief and highlight one important point on risk management. I regularly hedge my longer-term holdings using SPY put options, sizing the position with a structured allocation method that estimates how many contracts are needed to protect a defined percentage of the portfolio. When appropriate, I also use sector ETFs for more targeted exposure, or single-name puts when a specific risk is identified. On January 15, I hedged approximately 50% of my equity exposure. This is best viewed as insurance rather than speculation: I do not buy insurance expecting an accident, and I accept that the premium may expire worthless if the adverse event never occurs. That is not a failure of the hedge—it is simply the cost of protection.

The key is to separate investing, trading, and hedging into distinct activities with different objectives. A hedge should not be closed impulsively because the market drops 2% in one day, nor removed immediately because it rebounds the next. The plan must be defined before entering the position: how long you want protection, what risk you are hedging, and what you are willing to pay for that protection. In markets—as in life—nothing is free, and risk management has a cost.

Talking about next week: if you rely on oscillators, the message is broadly the same across most timeframes. On shorter horizons, signals have been swinging between the mid-range and upper band; on higher timeframes, they look flat, choppy, and largely stuck around the midpoint. ATR and directional-movement style indicators tell a similar story—lines tangled together, repeatedly crossing, and at times compressing in a way that resembles a “formation flight.” The interpretation is straightforward: there is no clear trend.

In environments like this, the highest-probability decision is often not to force trades. When major indexes are diverging (for example, Nasdaq strength alongside Dow weakness) and broader measures such as the FTW5000 fail to provide a consistent directional signal, it usually reflects rotation and uncertainty rather than a durable market impulse. This is the time to reduce the urge to hunt for setups that aren’t there, stay patient, and wait for clearer conditions—when an opportunity actually presents itself.

Unfortunately, this article is being published later than planned due to time constraints. In the meantime, I did have the opportunity to scan a number of news headlines—which may have influenced my near-term framing—so I want to be transparent about that context.

From a market-structure perspective, the preference remains a clean breakout from the current range. However, on intraday charts a downtrend is now established, and an important implication is that the market has not yet shown the typical signal needed to transition out of it. In practical terms, that would usually require a clear higher low to confirm that selling pressure is fading and that a reversal structure is developing. Until that higher low is in place, the path of least resistance remains vulnerable to additional weakness, particularly early in the week.

With that said, I will be watching the January 27 window as a potential timing area for stabilization and an attempted rebound. Any recovery, however, may prove short-lived unless higher-timeframe participation returns and price breaks convincingly out of the broader range-bound regime.

Long-Term

Decennial Pattern & Performance

The table averages market performance for each calendar year ending in the same digit and shows how often those years closed up or down. We’ve now in the year ending in 6, which historically has closed in positive territory over 70% of the time. However, the average gains in such years tend to be more modest—especially when compared to the typically stronger performance seen in years ending in 5.

Please note that the up/down counts in the table reflect only the direction of the yearly close and do not distinguish between small or large gains or losses. A year marked as “up” may include increases as minimal as 0.1%.

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Avg %	1.34%	1.38%	0.64%	16.27%	7.97%	21.44%	9.41%	1.49%	10.07%	10.37%
Up/Down	5/5	5/5	6/4	8/2	7/3	9/1	7/2	6/3	7/3	7/3

---

Kitchin Cycle

The Kitchin Cycle is a short-term business cycle lasting approximately 40.68 months, or about 3.4 years. First identified by economist Joseph Kitchin in the 1920s, it reflects recurring fluctuations in production and inventories. These cycles are driven by delays in information flow and business decision-making — companies respond to market signals with a lag, often overcorrecting by overproducing or underproducing. The result is a rhythmic, short-term economic pulse, distinct from longer cycles like Juglar or Kondratiev waves. Source: Technical Analysis Explained – Martin J. Pring.

Last Forecast Date	Type	Actual Date	Actual Direction	Next Peak	Next Valley
09/04/2025	Valley	07/04/2025	Up untill next peak	23/04/2027	08/12/2028

---

Presidential Cycle

Midterm Year (Year 2):
The second year is historically the most difficult. The weakness from late in Year 1 can spill over, and the first half of the year is often dominated by hesitancy, uneven growth, or outright declines. Political uncertainty around midterm elections tends to weigh on sentiment, while policy adjustments or tighter monetary conditions can add to the pressure. The turning point usually comes in the latter part of the year. By autumn, markets often carve out an important low, setting the stage for a strong rebound in the final quarter, as election results bring clarity and forward-looking investors position for the next phase of the cycle.

---

---

---

Mid-Term

JAN

FEB

MAR

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

NOV

DEC

Avg.

+1.2%

-0.2%

+0.4%

+1.1%

0.0%

+0.9%

+1.4%

+0.5%

-1.1%

+0.5%

+0.9%

+1.2%

% Up

61%

53%

60%

62%

61%

58%

61%

58%

46%

58%

58%

73%

---

Sector Signals and Relative Strength

---

---

---

Monthly Forecasts

JANUARY

The outlook for January suggests a sluggish start to the year, with a slightly bullish bias in the early days. A potential shift in direction is anticipated around January 14th, likely tilting to the downside. This pullback is expected to be short-lived, with a reversal to the upside projected around January 21st, potentially leading to a strong upward move into month-end.

JANUARY’s DOI: 14th, 21st.

DOIs: “DOI” refers to “Date of Interest” — a term used to highlight specific days when potential market reversals or periods of heightened volatility may occur. The methodology behind the identification of these dates has not been disclosed in previous publications and will remain confidential in future ones.

Short-Term

S&P500

---

---

---

Summary

Long-Term View
Both the Decennial Pattern and long-term historical trends suggest 2026 is shaping up to be another positive year for equities—albeit with more tempered gains than the standout performance of 2025. While returns may moderate, the overall backdrop remains constructive for long-term investors, supported in part by a mild upside bias from the Kitchin Cycle, which continues to point toward gradual strength.

However, 2026 also marks a midterm year in the U.S. election cycle—a period that has historically introduced heightened uncertainty and episodic market weakness, particularly in the first half of the year. This seasonal tendency aligns with current forecasts calling for early January softness, a mid-month pullback, and a subsequent rebound that could extend through much of the first quarter.

Mid-Term View

Seasonal patterns continue to support a strong start to the year, allowing for only modest pullbacks while the broader constructive bias typically remains intact into mid-April. Historically, January has finished positive roughly 61% of the time, and it also ranks among the stronger months on an average-return basis—reinforcing the view that early-year seasonality remains supportive, even if volatility appears intermittently.

The DJU-based timing signal that pointed to downside risk beginning around January 6, 2026 has not played out—at least not yet. Given how consistently this indicator has performed over the past year, I do not assume it becomes irrelevant simply because the calendar has turned. My interpretation is that the onset of earnings season may be acting as a temporary cushion, delaying rather than invalidating the risk window implied by the DJU signal.

From a market structure perspective, the SPXEW versus S&P 500 relationship is currently neutral in terms of divergence, as both indices continue to advance without a meaningful disconnect. The notable takeaway, however, is the pace of participation: the equal-weight index has been rising with a steeper slope than the cap-weighted S&P 500, suggesting broader underlying strength even if it has not yet translated into a decisive directional edge.

Sector and relative-strength analysis adds nuance. XBD is trending higher, which is generally consistent with a supportive risk backdrop, although the character of the advance appears less “orderly” than a classic trend, with wider swings that warrant monitoring for momentum continuity and higher-low integrity. XLP, meanwhile, is developing a broadening formation, marked by higher highs and higher lows but expanding volatility—often a sign of rising uncertainty and a setup that can eventually resolve with a directional break. At present, I am not inclined to interpret that structure as a clear bullish signal.

Finally, monthly forecasts were highlighting a potential decline window around January 14, followed by a recovery window near January 21. Based on past experience with how these dates of interest (DOIs) are derived, the timing component has tended to be more reliable than the directional call. As a result, the more actionable conclusion is the clustering of timing risk—meaning the market may still deliver the anticipated move, but the direction and exact sequencing around the 21st remain open and should be confirmed by price action.

Short-Term View

Last week, price action was largely range-bound, with the index oscillating between tightly clustered open-interest (OI) levels and repeatedly interacting with the third, slower-moving blue trendline. From a technical standpoint, the index ultimately closed below that trendline, which means it is currently functioning as a near-term resistance reference until reclaimed on a closing basis.

On the OI heat map, the overall range tightened further, signaling a more compressed positioning environment. Notably, OI below the current price increased, while a well-defined band of resistance remains clustered above. The OI buildup beneath spot appears more recent than the overhead concentration, which could indicate a shift in sentiment, an increase in downside hedging/protection, or simply a rebalancing of positioning as participants prepare for upcoming catalysts. Either way, the structure suggests the market is becoming more “boxed in,” where breaks away from these dense strike zones can produce faster, more mechanical follow-through.

On volatility, the VIX trendline identified last week continues to act as a constructive support area. Because the trendline is sloping upward, the implication is not immediate stress, but rather that implied volatility is biased to rise over the coming weeks, consistent with a market environment that may experience higher sensitivity to data, earnings, and positioning shifts.

What’s Ahead

Earnings season remains the primary driver for markets, with corporate results and guidance likely to set the tone for risk appetite. The trading week will also be structurally affected by the U.S. market closure on Monday, January 19, for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, compressing liquidity and sequencing of catalysts. Midweek attention then shifts to rates, as the third Wednesday (January 21) features the U.S. Treasury’s 20-year bond auction, a potential source of volatility in yields and rate-sensitive sectors. From a flows perspective, there are no end-of-month inflow/outflow dynamics to distort price action, and no major options expiration expected to mechanically amplify positioning moves.

EVENTS

• 22nd January 2026 13:30UTC GDP
• 22nd January 2026 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 22nd January 2026 15:00UTC Personal Income & Spending.

Outlook & Expectations

Looking ahead, earnings season is likely to act as a near-term stabilizer, with the first meaningful releases beginning next week. For the second consecutive week, I will refrain from issuing a formal price target. With earnings catalysts ramping up, key macro events such as CPI and inflation data scheduled, and the DJU-derived timing signal (55 candles ± 5 trading days) remaining active—an indicator that has proven notably reliable over the past year—the risk of forcing a directional call is uncomfortably high. Instead, I am focused on the January 13–14 window, where multiple drivers cluster: the DJU timing band, January 14 as a DOI, early earnings results, and several high-impact macroeconomic releases. That convergence should provide clearer confirmation on whether the market is positioned for continuation or a more meaningful pullback.

For the second consecutive week, the forecasts did not include a specific price target. While we did see a constructive pullback on January 14, that dip was quickly absorbed, with buyers stepping in almost immediately over the following sessions. In other words, the market did flash a signal, but the higher time frames did not fully confirm a broader directional move. Since that point, price action has been characterized more by consolidation than trend, with the index spending the week oscillating inside the tight OI-defined channel highlighted in the prior update. The key levels remained 6,998 on the upside and 6,863 on the downside, and the market largely moved sideways between them.

On the medium-to-longer-term charts, it has been increasingly evident that bullish momentum has cooled. Since late October, the market has struggled to extend meaningfully higher, and recent weeks have looked more like digestion than acceleration. Although Fibonacci levels are not my primary framework, I maintain them as a reference tool when they align with other market structure signals. Using the move from the February 19, 2025 high (6,147) to the April 7, 2025 low (4,835), the 1.618 extension projects to approximately 6,958—notably close to the area where the market began to stall and rotate rather than trend. When layering a second set of retracement levels from the April 2025 low to the more recent peak near January 12, 2026 (6,986), the 0.382 and 0.618 retracement zones stand out as the most relevant “buy-the-dip” candidates if a cleaner pullback develops. I cannot time that retracement with confidence, particularly because earnings have again provided a stabilizing effect and, so far, there has been no catalyst strong enough to force a sustained unwind.

Given the current compression, the focus shifts from forecasting a linear path to identifying the next timing window where the market is more likely to reveal its hand. The next signal cluster I am watching is around January 21, 2026, where a number of scheduled events and positioning dynamics could create a clearer directional read.

Looking to the upcoming week—which is shortened by the holiday—there is a reasonable case for a renewed bid once markets reopen, potentially delivering an early green close on Tuesday as liquidity normalizes. However, my base case remains cautiously bearish in the near term. I am focused on the next lower OI reference level near 6,805 as the downside objective if weakness resumes. If that scenario does not develop and we instead see the first meaningful confirmation around the January 21 window, then the bias would likely shift back toward the upper range, with 6,996 acting as the primary upside reference.

Long-Term

Decennial Pattern & Performance

The table averages market performance for each calendar year ending in the same digit and shows how often those years closed up or down. We’ve now in the year ending in 6, which historically has closed in positive territory over 70% of the time. However, the average gains in such years tend to be more modest—especially when compared to the typically stronger performance seen in years ending in 5.

Please note that the up/down counts in the table reflect only the direction of the yearly close and do not distinguish between small or large gains or losses. A year marked as “up” may include increases as minimal as 0.1%.

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Avg %	1.34%	1.38%	0.64%	16.27%	7.97%	21.44%	9.41%	1.49%	10.07%	10.37%
Up/Down	5/5	5/5	6/4	8/2	7/3	9/1	7/2	6/3	7/3	7/3

---

Kitchin Cycle

The Kitchin Cycle is a short-term business cycle lasting approximately 40.68 months, or about 3.4 years. First identified by economist Joseph Kitchin in the 1920s, it reflects recurring fluctuations in production and inventories. These cycles are driven by delays in information flow and business decision-making — companies respond to market signals with a lag, often overcorrecting by overproducing or underproducing. The result is a rhythmic, short-term economic pulse, distinct from longer cycles like Juglar or Kondratiev waves. Source: Technical Analysis Explained – Martin J. Pring.

Last Forecast Date	Type	Actual Date	Actual Direction	Next Peak	Next Valley
09/04/2025	Valley	07/04/2025	Up untill next peak	23/04/2027	08/12/2028

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Presidential Cycle

Midterm Year (Year 2):
The second year is historically the most difficult. The weakness from late in Year 1 can spill over, and the first half of the year is often dominated by hesitancy, uneven growth, or outright declines. Political uncertainty around midterm elections tends to weigh on sentiment, while policy adjustments or tighter monetary conditions can add to the pressure. The turning point usually comes in the latter part of the year. By autumn, markets often carve out an important low, setting the stage for a strong rebound in the final quarter, as election results bring clarity and forward-looking investors position for the next phase of the cycle.

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Mid-Term

	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
Avg.	1.2%	-0.2%	+0.4%	+1.1%	0.0%	+0.9%	+1.4%	+0.5%	-1.1%	+0.5%	+0.9%	+1.2%
% Up	61%	53%	60%	62%	61%	58%	61%	58%	46%	58%	58%	73%

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Sector Signals and Relative Strength

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Monthly Forecasts

JANUARY

The outlook for January suggests a sluggish start to the year, with a slightly bullish bias in the early days. A potential shift in direction is anticipated around January 14th, likely tilting to the downside. This pullback is expected to be short-lived, with a reversal to the upside projected around January 21st, potentially leading to a strong upward move into month-end.

JANUARY’s DOI: 14th, 21st.

DOIs: “DOI” refers to “Date of Interest” — a term used to highlight specific days when potential market reversals or periods of heightened volatility may occur. The methodology behind the identification of these dates has not been disclosed in previous publications and will remain confidential in future ones.

Short-Term

S&P500

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Summary

Long-Term View
Both the Decennial Pattern and long-term historical trends suggest 2026 is shaping up to be another positive year for equities—albeit with more tempered gains than the standout performance of 2025. While returns may moderate, the overall backdrop remains constructive for long-term investors, supported in part by a mild upside bias from the Kitchin Cycle, which continues to point toward gradual strength.

However, 2026 also marks a midterm year in the U.S. election cycle—a period that has historically introduced heightened uncertainty and episodic market weakness, particularly in the first half of the year. This seasonal tendency aligns with current forecasts calling for early January softness, a mid-month pullback, and a subsequent rebound that could extend through much of the first quarter.

Mid-Term View

Seasonal patterns indicate that January tends to be a favorable month for equities, with the S&P 500 finishing higher approximately 61% of the time and averaging a gain of +1.2%. While this historical tendency supports a constructive bias, several other indicators are painting a more cautious picture in the near term.

The most notable concern remains the Dow Jones Utility Average (DJU), which continues to flash a warning signal. Based on its historical cycle—typically 55 trading candles, plus or minus 5—it suggests a potential market inflection point around January 6th, with the window for downside risk extending to roughly January 13th. Given the DJU’s remarkable track record over the past year, most recently anticipating the October 2025 decline with precision, it’s difficult to dismiss this signal outright. The specific catalyst remains unknown, but the pattern has earned enough credibility to warrant respect.

Elsewhere, the divergence between the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW) and the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 has resolved, with both notching fresh all-time highs on Friday. No distinct chart patterns emerged, leaving this development neutral in the broader outlook for now.

From a sector perspective, both the Broker-Dealer Index (XBD) and Consumer Staples (XLP) are trending higher—an encouraging sign for market strength. However, the character of these uptrends has shifted. Unlike prior steady climbs, current moves are marked by unusually wide swings, resembling more of a reactive scramble than a confident drive forward. If this were a road trip, the driver appears to be second-guessing every turn.

Looking ahead, monthly projections suggest sluggish price action through the first half of January, with a potential pullback developing around mid-month—specifically near January 14th. Notably, this lines up with the DJU’s projected timing window. While a broader recovery remains the base case for later in the quarter, the short-term setup calls for caution, patience, and tactical positioning amid early-year volatility.

Short-Term View

The primary trendline—along with its derived faster and slower variants—continues to show signs of diminished influence, as prices increasingly “leak” through levels that previously held more decisively. That said, the structure still offers some utility in identifying potential areas of interest, and for now, remains relevant until a more reliable framework presents itself.

Friday’s session saw a bounce off the third, slower-moving trendline to the upside, reinforcing its near-term relevance. Shifting focus to open interest (OI), there’s clear evidence of tightening ranges, alongside a notable surge in OI above the current closing price. Based on how these positions are typically built, it’s highly likely—call it 97.5%—that these levels are speculative in nature. Should price begin to test those upper strike zones, a swift unwinding of the concentrated OI at those levels could trigger sharp directional moves.

As for volatility, there’s little of note on the VIX front. The only visible structure is a very weak, and to emphasize—weak—upward-sloping trendline, offering little in the way of actionable information at this point.

What’s Ahead

Earnings season kicks off next week, led by the big banks, setting the tone for broader market sentiment. With options expirations slated for next Friday, positioning and volatility may start to build as traders align exposure. This week also marks the second Wednesday of the month—a calendar detail more relevant for recurring economic data than immediate catalysts. Notably, there are no scheduled holidays or significant end-of-month flows to distort price action, leaving the market to trade cleanly on fundamentals and positioning.

EVENTS

• 13th January 2026 13:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 13th January 2026 13:30UTC CPI
• 14th January 2026 13:30UTC PPI
• 15th January 2026 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Outlook & Expectations

With most indicators leaning decisively bearish, and considering the weekend news developments, I will refrain from setting specific short-term targets for now. However, based on historical behavior and technical structure, a move toward $6,697 is plausible. Should that level break—and it’s already below December 2025’s low—it may open the door to further downside, confirming a deeper corrective phase.

The forecasts did not include a specific target for the week, primarily due to the elevated and fast-moving weekend news flow—particularly the geopolitical developments involving U.S. actions in Venezuela, which reasonably pointed to a potential risk-off reaction. In practice, that negative follow-through did not materialize, and the market ultimately absorbed the headlines, with the index gaining roughly 100 points over the week.

Looking ahead, earnings season is likely to act as a near-term stabilizer, with the first meaningful releases beginning next week. For the second consecutive week, I will refrain from issuing a formal price target. With earnings catalysts ramping up, key macro events such as CPI and inflation data scheduled, and the DJU-derived timing signal (55 candles ± 5 trading days) remaining active—an indicator that has proven notably reliable over the past year—the risk of forcing a directional call is uncomfortably high. Instead, I am focused on the January 13–14 window, where multiple drivers cluster: the DJU timing band, January 14 as a DOI, early earnings results, and several high-impact macroeconomic releases. That convergence should provide clearer confirmation on whether the market is positioned for continuation or a more meaningful pullback.

Long-Term

Decennial Pattern & Performance

The table averages market performance for each calendar year ending in the same digit and shows how often those years closed up or down. We’ve now in the year ending in 6, which historically has closed in positive territory over 70% of the time. However, the average gains in such years tend to be more modest—especially when compared to the typically stronger performance seen in years ending in 5.

Please note that the up/down counts in the table reflect only the direction of the yearly close and do not distinguish between small or large gains or losses. A year marked as “up” may include increases as minimal as 0.1%.

	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Avg %	1.34%	1.38%	0.64%	16.27%	7.97%	21.44%	9.41%	1.49%	10.07%	10.37%
Up/Down	5/5	5/5	6/4	8/2	7/3	9/1	7/2	6/3	7/3	7/3

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Kitchin Cycle

The Kitchin Cycle is a short-term business cycle lasting approximately 40.68 months, or about 3.4 years. First identified by economist Joseph Kitchin in the 1920s, it reflects recurring fluctuations in production and inventories. These cycles are driven by delays in information flow and business decision-making — companies respond to market signals with a lag, often overcorrecting by overproducing or underproducing. The result is a rhythmic, short-term economic pulse, distinct from longer cycles like Juglar or Kondratiev waves. Source: Technical Analysis Explained – Martin J. Pring.

Last Forecast Date	Type	Actual Date	Actual Direction	Next Peak	Next Valley
09/04/2025	Valley	07/04/2025	Up untill next peak	23/04/2027	08/12/2028

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Presidential Cycle

Midterm Year (Year 2):
The second year is historically the most difficult. The weakness from late in Year 1 can spill over, and the first half of the year is often dominated by hesitancy, uneven growth, or outright declines. Political uncertainty around midterm elections tends to weigh on sentiment, while policy adjustments or tighter monetary conditions can add to the pressure. The turning point usually comes in the latter part of the year. By autumn, markets often carve out an important low, setting the stage for a strong rebound in the final quarter, as election results bring clarity and forward-looking investors position for the next phase of the cycle.

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Mid-Term

	JAN	FEB	MAR	APR	MAY	JUN	JUL	AUG	SEP	OCT	NOV	DEC
Avg.	1.2%	-0.2%	+0.4%	+1.1%	0.0%	+0.9%	+1.4%	+0.5%	-1.1%	+0.5%	+0.9%	+1.2%
% Up	61%	53%	60%	62%	61%	58%	61%	58%	46%	58%	58%	73%

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Sector Signals and Relative Strength

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Monthly Forecasts

JANUARY

The outlook for January suggests a sluggish start to the year, with a slightly bullish bias in the early days. A potential shift in direction is anticipated around January 14th, likely tilting to the downside. This pullback is expected to be short-lived, with a reversal to the upside projected around January 21st, potentially leading to a strong upward move into month-end.

JANUARY’s DOI: 14th, 21st.

DOIs: “DOI” refers to “Date of Interest” — a term used to highlight specific days when potential market reversals or periods of heightened volatility may occur. The methodology behind the identification of these dates has not been disclosed in previous publications and will remain confidential in future ones.

Short-Term

S&P500

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Summary

Long-Term View
We’ve officially entered 2026 with both the Decennial Pattern and historical performance trends pointing toward another positive year for equities—though likely more moderate compared to 2025. While the gains may not match last year’s strength, the backdrop remains broadly supportive for long-term investors. The Kitchin Cycle also lends a mild upside bias, reinforcing the potential for continued upward movement.

That said, 2026 is a midterm year in the U.S. election cycle, which has historically been associated with uncertainty and market weakness—particularly in the first half of the year, often extending into the autumn months. This aligns with the current forecast, which anticipates some early weakness in January, followed by a brief pullback around mid-month, and then a strong recovery that could carry through much of the first quarter.

Mid-Term View

Seasonal patterns suggest that January is historically one of the better-performing months, with the S&P 500 closing in positive territory approximately 61% of the time, and delivering an average gain of +1.2%. While seasonality supports a constructive bias, several other indicators are currently pointing to a more cautious outlook.

The most concerning signal at the moment comes from the Dow Jones Utility Index (DJU), which remains the most bearish indicator in my current framework. The index has experienced a prolonged and pronounced decline, suggesting persistent underlying weakness that may extend until around early March 2026. As highlighted in my year-end article, DJU proved to be a surprisingly reliable leading indicator throughout 2025, often anticipating broader market softness ahead of time. While I don’t expect this relationship to hold perfectly every time, the depth and duration of the current drop in DJU merits attention. If past patterns persist, the broader market may soon reflect similar pressure.

Adding to the cautious tone is the emerging divergence between the S&P 500 and the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (SPXEW). While the divergence is not yet extreme, it does point to narrowing market breadth, a condition that often signals underlying weakness beneath the surface of index-level strength.

Turning to sector-based indicators, the picture remains somewhat ambiguous. The Broker-Dealer Index (XBD) continues to trend higher, which historically aligns with broader market upside. However, Consumer Staples (XLP) appears to be trading within a broadening formation, showing no clear directional conviction at this stage. This mixed signal across key sectors reflects an environment where short-term caution may be warranted despite longer-term support.

Looking ahead, monthly forecasts point to sluggish price action through the first two weeks of January, followed by a potential decline around mid-month, particularly near January 14th. While a recovery is still expected later in the quarter, the near-term setup suggests a need for patience and tactical positioning as the market navigates early-year volatility.

Short-Term View

Since November 20, 2025, the market has notably changed pace, with price action closely respecting both the derived slower and faster trendlines plotted during this period. While these trendlines may eventually need refinement as the price structure evolves, they continue to offer useful context for now and remain relevant in tracking short-term dynamics.

Overlaying this with the blue trendline and key Open Interest (OI) resistance zones, it’s clear that the market is encountering overhead resistance. When viewed through the lens of the OI Heat Map, there’s a visible magnetic pull toward upper resistance levels, suggesting stronger positioning and liquidity pockets above current price—relative to what’s below.

On the chart, I’ve also marked December’s low, a level worth monitoring closely. A close below this threshold typically signals a shift toward weakness, and historically, such breakdowns tend to linger as bearish signals on the chart.

Turning to volatility, the VIX has re-entered its “Normal” range, after briefly dipping into the “Very Calm” zone. It has been rising modestly over the past week, though it’s worth noting that the broader trend over the past month has remained generally downward. This shift may reflect early-stage uncertainty as we move into the first stretch of the new year.

What’s Ahead

As we enter the first full trading weeks of the year, market attention will gradually begin shifting toward the upcoming earnings season. While early reports may trickle in, the more notable earnings releases are expected to begin toward the end of the second week. There are no major options expirations or market holidays on the immediate calendar, allowing price action to be driven primarily by fundamentals and positioning. Additionally, end-of-month flows may continue to influence market behavior, particularly as investors rebalance portfolios and allocate capital at the start of a new year—a period often marked by strategic shifts and fresh positioning.

EVENTS

• 07th January 2026 15:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 08th January 2026 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 09th January 2026 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Outlook & Expectations

Technically speaking, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the week start with a continuation higher, potentially testing the faster-rising blue trendline or even reaching the Open Interest resistance level around $6,974. If price stalls or rejects at that level, a pullback scenario becomes plausible. In a more extended downside move, support doesn’t come in immediately—$6,797 could be a potential downside magnet if selling accelerates. If bearish momentum doesn’t materialize, a stall below $6,974 remains the more probable outcome for now.

The recent shift in bias from bullish to bearish was directionally correct, though the magnitude of the move fell short of expectations. The market closed at $6,858, notably above the forecasted target of $6,797, leaving room for further adjustment as conditions evolve.

Looking ahead, the combination of medium- and short-term indicators continues to suggest a period of sustained weakness—potentially extending over the coming weeks or even months. The technical structure, while not in breakdown territory yet, appears vulnerable, and the risk of further downside remains elevated.

News flow may act as a catalyst, potentially accelerating or amplifying existing pressures. It’s important to recall that sharp VIX spikes, like we saw in April 2025, have historically created long-term buying opportunities—but only once the immediate volatility has settled.

Among key signals:

• The DJU continues to indicate underlying weakness.
• A mild divergence has emerged between the S&P 500 and the Equal Weight Index (SPXEW).
• Sector relative strength remains unclear and mixed, offering little directional conviction.
• The VIX, having recently bounced out of the “Very Calm” zone, is now back in its Normal range, suggesting that market complacency is fading.

With most indicators leaning decisively bearish, and considering the weekend news developments, I will refrain from setting specific short-term targets for now. However, based on historical behavior and technical structure, a move toward $6,697 is plausible. Should that level break—and it’s already below December 2025’s low—it may open the door to further downside, confirming a deeper corrective phase.

This article offers a brief but focused overview of market behavior throughout 2025, with an emphasis on the tools and indicators I’ve actively relied on over the course of the year. Rather than attempting to cover the full spectrum of macro data, sentiment gauges, or third-party models, the goal here is to evaluate the specific set of indicators I’ve developed and applied in my own analysis—what I consider my personal framework for navigating market direction.

That said, there’s one notable exception worth highlighting: the Dow Jones Utility Index (DJU). While not part of my custom set, it deserves special attention this year. Its performance in 2025 was nothing short of remarkable. Had one used the DJU as a directional guide for timing entries into the SPY, it would have resulted in consistently accurate signals throughout the year. In fact, there wasn’t a single instance where following the DJU’s trajectory would have led you astray—an astonishing level of correlation that stands out in an already exceptional market year.

This retrospective will examine how these indicators performed in real-time—where they helped, where they didn’t, and what we might take away as we prepare for 2026.

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2026 Market Outlook: Modest Expectations, Select Opportunities, and a Look Ahead

The image above presents my annual market forecast for 2026. Based on the current projections, the year does not appear to be setting up for outsized performance. The expected gain is approximately 8.41%, with a corresponding target around $7,400. While this doesn’t point to a breakout year by historical standards, it still suggests a constructive backdrop—particularly for those with a patient, tactical approach.

For this year’s forecast, I’ve made a few visual enhancements to improve clarity and usability. You’ll notice percentage markers and red pointers added to the chart. The percentages indicate how often, across the historical dataset, the market printed its lowest low during each quarter. For example, a 50% reading in Q4 means that, in half of the years reviewed, the lowest price point of the year occurred in the fourth quarter.

The red pointers go one level deeper, highlighting the specific months within each quarter where those lows most frequently materialized. For instance, a red pointer in February signifies that 25% of the time a Q1 low was observed, it occurred in that month.

A key caveat applies here: Q1 lows are only counted if they are lower than the Q4 low of the preceding year. This rule ensures we’re capturing genuine new lows in trend rather than short-term retracements that stay within the previous year’s range.

One element that immediately stood out during this year’s review is the divergence between the Dow Jones Utility Index (DJU) and the market forecast for early 2026. While the DJU declined through the final quarter of 2025, my forecasts point to a modestly bullish Q1. This contrast hasn’t gone unnoticed.

Historically, when a leading indicator like DJU trends downward while forecasts suggest upward momentum, the outcome is often sideways price action. That’s largely in line with recent conditions: markets have been consolidating since late October. The DJU hasn’t demonstrated much bullish strength either. Its last notable peak came on October 16, 2025, and using the standard 55-bar forward shift, that influence extends into the first week of January 2026.

While the forecast does anticipate some weakness in mid-January, it doesn’t currently suggest a significant downside event. Still, given the DJU’s tone and recent price behavior, I’m not fully convinced that the first quarter will deliver the kind of strength the model suggests.

That said, within the 2026 roadmap, I’ve identified three key time windows that may offer attractive entry points for investors, should conditions align:

• Mid-January
• Mid-May
• Early October

If the forecast plays out as expected, these periods could represent strategic opportunities to deploy capital, especially for those looking to enter during broader pullbacks or consolidation phases.

From a trading perspective, I anticipate a relatively balanced year—opportunities will exist, but selectivity will matter. July and December are likely to bring more sideways activity, which may lead to a lower-conviction environment. Personally, I may step back during those periods—December has rarely been my most productive month, and a summer break in July might not be the worst idea either.

The year-end target for 2026 is set at $7,400, and as always, we’ll revisit this number in twelve months to see how closely the market aligned with expectations. Whether the forecast proves precise or not, the focus remains the same: staying adaptive, grounded, and responsive to evolving conditions.

Thank you to everyone who followed along this year. Wishing you a healthy, prosperous, and focused 2026—in the markets and beyond.