Seasonal Context & Events

The fourth week of earnings season continues, with Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples remaining the primary focus. Next week, attention will shift to Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors. There are no holidays or options expirations this week, keeping the schedule uninterrupted. However, the first few days of the week may still be influenced by inflows and outflows as funds and investors adjust their positions, potentially impacting market movement before stabilizing later in the week.

Key events include:

03rd February 15:00 UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI

04th February 15:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings

05th February 15:00UTC ISM Services PMI

06th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

07th February 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
27/01/2025	0.69
28/01/2025	0.30
29/01/2025	0.41
30/01/2025	0.82
31/01/2025	0.24

Quite clear tendency to remain low.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
2.69	0.75
2.21	0.63

Declined from last week, but still inconsistent reading for a rally to the up.

Coherence

SP500	+1.18%
RUT	-0.08%
DJT	-1.71%

Can’t see coherence, profit taking, slowing down.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6201
R2	6192
R1	6176
Close	6040
S1	5916
S2	5891
S3	5856

Wrap Up & Forecast

Yep, “Buy the rumor, sell the news”—classic. But when you prioritize quantity over quality, you’ll eventually find yourself in a less-than-ideal position. What had people panicking on Monday quickly turned out to be a low-quality fear—one of those overreactions that, in hindsight, makes little sense. Unless you’re trading, investing, or flipping coins on a completely different set of rules, that move soon proved to be untradable—like most of those dramatic openings that gap far from the previous close due to some X event.

In the coming days, you’ll see some people asking themselves, “What the hell did I just do?” while others will be thinking, “I love this.” The difference? One reacts, the other acts. It’s up to you to figure out who does what, but the answer isn’t exactly hidden. Small hint—reacting in the Market often leads to losses or, at best, flawed analysis. How do you know if you reacted or actually acted with intention? Simple—if you don’t like the outcome, there’s a 99.99999% chance you just reacted.

To save the hassle of flipping back through previous articles, I’ve updated the chart to include last week’s lines, making it easier to see how the Market moved relative to the forecast. And as always, at the bottom, you’ll find the chart for the coming week’s outlook.

What happened last week? Our linear thinking, based on the forecasted range-bound behavior between 6000$ and 6100$, would have suggested one of two scenarios: either a dip toward 6000$ followed by a climb to 6100$ by the end of the week, or, factoring in some event-driven volatility and earnings noise, a choppy ride with long wicks bouncing between those levels. But the Market has its own way of keeping things interesting—sometimes all it takes is a couple of headlines to flip the script.

The Market gapped down on Monday, dropping below the expected range to 5969$ close by S1. But funny enough, it still managed to close at 6012$—almost as if there was a reason for that, right? And from there, it climbed right toward 6100$ and then we all know what happened on Friday on the last hours (or you can just look below).

What’s next? Since the dawn of the stock market, the options have always been the same: up, sideways, or down.

Up? Sure, it’s in the mix. But meh—just looking at the candlesticks, this move seems like a retest of the January 24th high, which didn’t exactly power through resistance. Will it break next week? Well, yeah—up is always on the table, so it could happen. But if you’re paying attention to any indicator that tracks divergence (which, let’s be honest, is most indicators), you might notice a slight bearish divergence between price action and where the indicators are sitting. If you’re eyeing the upside, that’s something to keep in mind.

Sideways? Also a possibility. But let’s be real—sideways is just meh. Whether you’re a trader or an investor, you know it’s the least entertaining scenario (unless, of course, you’re into those bizarre options strategies that thrive on nothing happening).

Down? Always an option! Down to where? I’d be looking at the 5970$-5920$ range. Yep, away from al R levels.

As for my outlook? Same as previously mentioned—I still expect a dip starting around February 5th-7th, lasting until February 10th-12th, followed by a short-lived move back up toward 6200$-6250$. Honestly, I don’t have a specific downside target in mind. I’ll just let the blue dotted lines and green lines do the talking.

Yep, had to push my 6200$-6250$ target back a bit—now looking closer to February 18th. Let’s see how that plays out.

Seasonal Context & Events

The 3rd week of earnings season is here, bringing reports from sectors like Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples—classic mid-season players. Big names like Microsoft and Tesla are set to release earnings next week, so keep an eye on the calendar for those. With no holidays or options expirations to distract us, all eyes will shift to the Fed’s Interest Rate decision on the 29th. Add in the usual end-of-month inflows and outflows from both retail and professional investors, and you’ve got a recipe for some interesting Market moves. Let’s see how it all unfolds!

Key events include:

29th January 19:00UTC FED Interest Rate Decision

29th January 19:30UTC FED Press Conference

30th January 14:30UTC GDP Price Index

30th January 14:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

31st January 14:30UTC Personal Income & Spending

31st January 14:30UTC PCE Price Index

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
20/01/2025	0.67
21/01/2025	0.82
22/01/2025	0.34
23/01/2025	0.65
24/01/2025	0.49

Started getting out of the 0.60-1.00 area.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
3.39	1.67
3.30	0.97

Building up on low volume.

Coherence

SP500	+1.44%
RUT	+0.93%
DJT	+0.75%

Coherent to the up, profits taking, driven.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6258
R2	6256
R1	6245
Close	6101
S1	5958
S2	5927
S3	5909

Wrap Up & Forecast

I was expecting a pause last week, followed by a resumption of the uptrend by week’s end. Instead? No pause—just a straight shot upward. When I make mistakes like this, I always ask myself, “How could I have known?” This question forces me to review what I might have missed or misinterpreted. If I find something, I take note. If not, I revisit my journal every six months and ask myself again: “Do I know now?” If the answer is still no, I keep at it. Does this sound obsessive? Maybe. But in the lawless world of the Market, you have to make your own rules—and, more importantly, stick to them. Everyone’s good at making rules; following them is another story (reminds me of politics). If you’re looking for guidance, I highly recommend The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. It’s best read after one to three years of messing up in the Market—because let’s face it, without the pain and sacrifice, it just won’t hit the same.

Now, on to serious matters—what happened last week?

A relentless rise straight to the up stalling in between R1 and R2, that’s what happened. So relentless, in fact, that any indicators you might use would’ve been screaming “Extreme!” or flashing a metaphorical “Low oxygen at this altitude!” From a seasonal and contextual perspective, which week would have had a higher probability of a pause: last week or the coming week? It’s easy to see now, in hindsight. But forecasting isn’t hindsight, and maybe I should have read my indicators better or projected them into the week ahead with a clearer understanding of the seasonal and event-driven context. Do I know where I went wrong? Yes. Do I care? Of course—learning from mistakes is part of the game. Do I take it personally? Not anymore. I’ve stopped taking it personally—I just tweak my approach and move forward. As the book wisely puts it: “The Market doesn’t hurt you; you let it hurt you. It has no control over you, and you have no control over it. It’s not your opponent, and you’re not its enemy.”

So, what about next week? The usual options are on the table: up, sideways, or down.

The Market has been climbing in a straight line, stalling between R1 and R2, which seem to be putting up quite the fight. What does that tell us? The Market might be gearing up for a pause in its upward move. If that’s true, the likely scenarios are either sideways or down—because up has already had its turn.

For sideways, I’d expect the Market to hold between the recent high and the 6000$ level (blue dashed lines in the chart). For down, I’d be looking lower, around the 5950$-5970$ zone, or to use a reference, S1 . That said, the Market rarely goes straight down right after a strong rally, so what I see shaping up at the moment is a small range-bound behavior between 6100$ and 6000$. I’d anticipate a dip somewhere starting around February 5th-7th going to S1 area, followed by a resumption of the uptrend around February 10th-12th.

Why, you ask? Magic? Maybe. But more likely, it’s the result of thousands of hours spent staring at charts instead of scrolling through reels on my phone. And the fact that I still make mistakes only means one thing: I’ll keep doing it.

What if it goes up? Well, all the R levels are above 6200$, which technically means no resistance at all. Practically, though, there might be some famous Bands tightening things up and restricting any upward moves for now. Classic Market—you’ve got to love the contradictions.

In the article “10/01/2025: The Week Ahead” I mentioned a target of 6250$-6300$ by mid-February. That target still stands. Let’s see if the Market plays along.

Seasonal Context & Events

The second week of earnings season keeps the spotlight firmly on Financials and Big Banks—still under the microscope for now. As for what’s next? Weeks 3 and 4 will bring Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples into focus, so expect the narrative to shift soon. This week will be a little shorter, with the Market taking Monday off for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Oh, and no options expirations this week, so at least that’s one less thing to overthink.

Key events include:

23rd January 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
13/01/2025	0.74
14/01/2025	0.75
15/01/2025	0.73
16/01/2025	0.74
17/01/2025	0.67

Sticky in the green, everything above 0.60 for me is a bullish reading.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
2.45	1.01
1.85	0.97

Somebody looks like hedging against a correction. That’s the only red flag I’ve in the readings so far. But VO readings is supporting of a temporary position.

Coherence

SP500	+3.71%
RUT	+4.55%
DJT	+3.63%

Coherent to the up, enthusiast.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6145
R2	6138
R1	6113
Close	5996
S1	5858
S2	5808
S3	5793

Wrap Up & Forecast

A solid start to earnings season, paired with supportive macroeconomic data, gave the Market a nice boost on Wednesday. Coincidence? Maybe, but let’s not forget that I’ve already declared my disdain for Wednesdays—it’s not personal, it’s just how it is. Last week, I mentioned, “If all those analysts predicting how the season will unfold were always right, do you think we’d even have ‘reactions’ anymore?” Wednesday’s gap was a perfect reminder of two things: If you don’t know, you can always work and learn to know. But if you can’t know, relax—it’s out of your hands.

So, what went down last week? Monday opened lower touching previous S1 (yes, that gap from November 6th, 2024, finally closed on Monday, so I’ll stop obsessing over it… or maybe not). Gaps always leave breadcrumbs about where support and resistance have been—and might be again—so make a note, whether in your journal or on your charting software. After the gap closed, the Market shot straight up opening on Wednesday right at R1. Were you quick enough to jump in? Or did hesitation hold you back?

The rally continued through Thursday but started losing steam as the trend ran out of momentum quite close to R2. Then came Friday, with a gap-up opening that might have reignited some optimism in the air but already feeling R3.

So, what’s next? As always, the options remain the same: up, down, or sideways.

Down? Well, that depends on what you mean by “down.” For me, a downtrend means an actual decline that lasts for days—none of this slow-motion sideways grind losing 0.1% per day. That’s not “down”; that’s the Market taking a nap. Do I see down as a possibility? Of course, it’s always an option. But given it’s earnings season, post-options expiration, with no major events or “catastrophic headlines” on the horizon, I wouldn’t expect a meaningful or tradable move to the downside.

Sideways? That’s definitely on the table. Picture the Market burping, digesting last week’s moves, and flirting with the psychological resistance level of 6000$, where plenty of retail traders likely have profit-taking or strike prices lined up. With Monday off for the Market, and a shorter week ahead, sideways seems like a safe bet.

Up? Absolutely possible. Up to where? Don’t be surprised if the Market aims to revisit the early December 2024 highs. That said, unless something remarkably good happens, I’d expect this to play out closer to the end of the month rather than this week.

Overall, next week doesn’t seem like it’ll bring much action. I could be wrong, but the more likely scenario is waiting until the end of the week—or even next week—for a shot at resuming the uptrend. I don’t mind being wrong, so here’s a thought: the Market managed to close above that downsloping trendline from mid-December 2024, but with a small-bodied candle. Mix that with the possibility of a Tuesday dip quite close to that blue dotted trendline or in that area anyway—post-holiday hangover included—and it starts to make sense. As mentioned earlier, we might see a touch of weakness before the uptrend resumes, likely by the end of the week or into the next one.

Previously, in the post from January 10th, 2025, I mentioned February 18th-19th as a possible pause for the Market’s rise. I’d like to adjust that slightly to around February 12th for now. From there, some sideways action between February 12th and 18th-19th seems likely.

As for targets during this rally? Somewhere in the 6250$-6300$ range by mid-February sounds reasonable. Let’s see if the Market agrees.

Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season kicks off this week, and as usual, the first wave belongs to the Financials and Banks. Big players like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will set the tone, alongside early reports from credit card companies, insurance firms, and regional banks. It’s the classic Week 1–2 lineup.

No holidays this time around, so no excuses to skip the action. Several events are scheduled throughout the week, all conveniently pre-market.

Oh, and yes, options expirations are back this week. Let the games begin.

Key events include:

14th January 13:30UTC PPI

15th January 13:30UTC Inflation Rate + Core Inflation Rate

15th January 13:30UTC CPI

16th January 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
06/01/2025	0.46
07/01/2025	0.40
08/01/2025	0.57
10/01/2025	0.13

Well below the 0.60 area, reflecting the down of the week, with Friday almost at bottom scale.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
1.65	1.13
2.11	2.48

Readings softening compared to last week, still looking bearish.

Coherence

SP500	-2.61%
RUT	-3.79%
DJT	-0.85%

Coherent, legitimately scared, follows along.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6027
R2	5988
R1	5903
Close	5827
S1	5783
S2	5696
S3	5674

Wrap Up & Forecast

I read the news, like everyone else. Do they influence me? Maybe not consciously, but subconsciously? Probably—hard to prove otherwise. But do I care about them? Not in the slightest.

Earnings season kicks off this week, and here comes the usual mix of reactions, gap ups, and gap downs. If all those analysts predicting how the season will unfold were always right, do you think we’d even have “reactions” anymore? Hardly. If everyone truly knew everything about an equity, prices wouldn’t move—they’d just close at the so-called “real value.”

So, do I listen to analysts? Nope. Equities and Indexes already reflect everything that’s known and how it’s being interpreted—both emotionally and with actual money on the line. The Market tells the story, not the talking heads.

Let’s see how earnings unfold and let the numbers play out. After the season ends, you’ll get a clearer picture of company status and how the market interprets the data. But let’s be real—analysts are just people sitting in offices, plotting ideas about the future. Nothing more, nothing less.

What happened last week? The Market gave it a shot on Monday, trying to recover, but just didn’t have the energy to power through the cluster of resistance sitting right there. Funny enough, last week’s forecast predicted a reversal zone between 5975$ and 6000$. The close? 5975.38$. Close enough? Maybe for the 0.38$, but the range was 25$, should have been narrower.

From there, the Market started sliding again, eventually finding solid support around 5807$. My target was 5783$—still 25 points off. A bit too much to call this a “reliable blog,” so feel free to stop reading from here.

But if you’d prefer to keep on reading, here’s the deal: the Market can do three things—go up, go sideways, or go down. What’s the likelihood of each? Earnings are just around the corner, and apart from panicked or delusional traders, random events, and oh yeah, options expiration, there’s really “nothing” to worry about. Or is there?

Down? Sure, it’s possible, but with plenty of support around 5825$ and 5800$, there’s not much room left before buyers start stepping in. Sideways? Highly likely. Either low volume or that classic choppy action where you feel like a trading genius one day and a complete amateur the next. Up? Definitely on the table as well.

The Market seems like it wants to head upward but is being held hostage by indecisive participants who can’t figure out what to do next. Events in the week ahead might add some volatility, creating even more uncertainty and translating into choppier stock charts. For an uptrend to really take hold, Thursday and Friday might offer some confirmation—or maybe as early as Tuesday. Why not Wednesday, you ask? Because Wednesdays don’t vibe with me.

As for entry points, they might appear midweek, hidden somewhere in the usual noise. Or maybe they’ve already passed. Perhaps Friday was the moment? Then again, Monday could just continue Friday’s trend. Or, what if something tragic happens over the weekend, and we open at S1 around 5730$? Anything is possible—it’s all about probabilities and, more importantly, focusing on what you can actually control.

And then? Maybe an upward leg until February 18th-19th sounds plausible. But let’s be real—this won’t be all unicorns and rainbows. Corrections and sideways movements are almost guaranteed to show up along the way. Or maybe this is just wishful thinking. Only time will tell.