Seasonal Context & Events

We’re sliding into the tail end of earnings season—just a few stragglers left to report. No holidays on the calendar, options expirations to stir things up, and no end-of-month flows pushing money in or out. The only real blip worth circling is the second Wednesday of the month, when the bond market takes center stage with the 10-year note auction—a reminder that even when equities look quiet, there’s always another corner of the market making noise.

Key events include:

• 12th August 12:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 12th August 12:30UTC CPI
• 14th August 12:30UTC PPI
• 14th August 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

August… the month I love to hate. Everything grinds to a halt, like the world’s on siesta, and people act as if they can actually afford to take time off from their lives. I get it—if you hate what you do, you count the days until you can escape it. I genuinely feel sorry for them, I really do.

Now, something (briefly) on the technical side. Last week, my medium-term charts (weekly) already had indicators sitting high and flirting with a cross to the downside. And here’s the trap—people see that and immediately think, “Oh my god, the weekly’s going down, the Market will collapse tomorrow!” Not quite. The reason I called for a choppy August instead of a complete market nosedive is because, yes, indicators are high and may cross soon—but context matters. Pull up your own charts: compare last week to the week of February 16th. Or to December 15th, 2024 versus July 14th, 2024. Even better—look at July 30th, 2023. The difference isn’t always in the shape of the cross; sometimes it’s in the location relative to the scale. It’s about where they cross, how they cross, and what the monthly chart is doing in the background. Are those monthly lines crossing too, or at least converging?

It might sound subtle, but like most things in the Market—once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

What happened last week? Forecasts called for a bounce followed by a continuation of the downtrend, with price action staying trapped between S1 and R1.

And yes, we nailed the bounce—right out of the gate at the start of the week. But honestly, I was expecting the downtrend to kick back in, especially after we tagged R1 on Thursday. Range-wise though, it behaved exactly as planned: S1 to R1 and nowhere beyond.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6521
R2	6473
R1	6448
Close	6389
S1	6199
S2	6197
S3	6196

Forecasts

What’s funny? The giant cluster of support down at 6200. To even get there, the Market would have to shed 190 points—which feels pretty unrealistic right now. But here’s the kicker: when all the supports are parked that far below, it tells you positioning is tilted to the upside… just not for a runaway rally. Profit-taking starts almost immediately above, kicking in as soon as we brush R1. So, realistically, I’m expecting the Market to keep grinding higher, with the sweet spot landing somewhere between R1 and R2. Sticky price action could hug that late-July peak, then around the 15th—when something inevitably shakes the tree—we might see volatility spike with some long, aggressive candles, setting the stage for a rollover after one more polite tap at that July high.

Seasonal Context & Events

We’re deep in the heart of earnings season now, with reports flying in and price reactions ranging from textbook to “what the hell was that?” There are no holidays or options expirations on the radar this week, so the Market’s free to move on pure earnings drama and sentiment. That said, there’s still a bit of leftover turbulence from end-of-month flows—those inflows and outflows don’t just vanish overnight—so don’t be surprised if price action stays a little twitchy early in the week.

Key events include:

• 07th August 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Yep, I know—I said I’d be back on July 25th. Instead, it’s been a full month since the last post. Why? Because sometimes life doesn’t ask for your opinion—it just dumps its calendar on you. So, zero trades in June. And July? Also zero. Am I mad about it? Not really. I’ve barely managed to get the new setup running, and I’m definitely not jumping back into the Market mid-August unless something crystal clear shows up.

Quick recap of the past month: I vanished because I moved. The apartment wasn’t finished—missing furniture, missing desk, missing just about everything. Only now I’ve finally got my workspace back and started reviewing charts again. Watching the landlord try to juggle contractors and late installers was a whole new kind of chaos. Add in the overpriced, poorly assembled furniture, and let’s just say: I thank the Market gods every day for teaching me I don’t need to deal with people for a living.

Years ago, I tried launching a small online business importing products from Asia. Lasted long enough to confirm what I already suspected—people test my patience. Missed deadlines, no-shows, “I forgot” excuses… it’s all noise I don’t want to hear again. Lesson learned: if you want something done properly, do it yourself—and don’t expect anyone else to show up on time.

As for real estate? Not my thing. Someone once pointed out how few names on the Forbes list made their fortune off rental properties. That’s all I needed. I don’t need to be smart—just need to copy what works. And while others see rent as a liability, I see it as a form of insurance. It gives me the right—but not the obligation—to walk away whenever I want. Sounds a lot like trading options, honestly.

Anyway, I’ll keep this short. No technicals here—just the reality check. And don’t worry, the end-of-month summary’s waiting right after this.

What happened last week? Well, I didn’t have eyes on it, so instead—let’s zoom out and do a post-mortem on the entire month of July.

Let’s rewind to what was forecasted:

I expect the Market to rise into the 11th, with that upward move potentially sticking around until the 15th. Around that point, I’m eyeing a pullback that could stretch into the 23rd. Then we may see a bumpy climb from the 24th to the 28th, followed by a more decisive move upward to close out the month.

DOIs for July are: 7th, 15th, 23rd, 31st!

Now that the candles are in and the dust’s settled, here’s what actually played out: we shifted from up to sideways between the 7th and the 15th (not bad), then got a steady rise into the 28th—right in line with the 23rd DOI. The peak came on the 29th, and while that wasn’t on the DOI list, I’ll let it slide because that 31st candle? Chef’s kiss.

As for the written forecast? Let’s call it “close but improvable.” The expected pullback from mid-month never really showed up—we got a clean rise instead. Hey, 50/50 shot, right? The bump from the 24th to 28th was spot on, but instead of a decisive move up to close the month… we got a pretty decisive move down. How could I have seen that coming? Simple answer: study more, learn more, evolve. The Market’s always offering lessons—you just have to be willing to accept the feedback (especially when it slaps).

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6497
R2	6438
R1	6368
Close	6238
S1	6142
S2	6043
S3	6021

Forecasts

What about next week? Well… mixed feelings. Should I even bother forecasting? Then again, you’re all reading this for free—and doing so at your own risk—so why should that dent my self-confidence?

Let’s be honest: August and September are historically the Market’s sloppiest months. Translation? The candles are usually small or red. Small means chop. Red means down. And let’s be real—if I had to pick, I’d take a clear down over a messy sideways grind any day of the week.

A couple things caught my eye heading into this week. First, S1 and R1 are nearly equidistant from the close—always a sign that price is indecisive and may be gearing up for some turbulence. Second, some of the mid-term indicators (weekly charts) are starting to cross. When that happens, I mentally prep for volatility on the shorter timeframes—usually for about three candles’ worth of mess. Combine that with the fact we’re still in earnings season (which tends to keep a full-on nosedive in check), and what do you get? My guess: choppy conditions.

If I had to put money on it—figuratively—I’d say we get a pause mid-week, followed by a resumption of the downtrend. So yes, I’m leaning bearish, but I don’t see price punching past S1 or R1. Think range-bound frustration, not meltdown.

As for the rest of August? I don’t really have any solid DOIs marked—just one, actually. The 22nd. That’s the only spot on my map where a potential buy-and-hold setup might show up. Outside of that, it’s a month to stay nimble or stay out.

Seasonal Context & Events

Unfortunately, due to personal commitments, the articles for July 11th and 18th won’t be published. I’ll be back on the 25th—see you then!

We’re officially back in earnings season territory, so brace yourself for the usual round of surprises, overreactions, and analyst facepalms. Aside from that, it’s a pretty standard setup—no holidays to disrupt the flow, no options expirations to skew things, and none of those end-of-month inflows or outflows that tend to throw a wrench into the price action. Basically, it’s just the Market and its earnings-driven mood swings this week.

Key events include:

• 09th July 18:00UTC FOMC Minutes
• 10th July 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Before the break—believe me, I’d rather be writing these articles than dealing with what’s actually on my plate—let’s at least leave on a technical note.

Let’s talk about something you might’ve heard of: the good old “Dow Theory.”

Dow Theory is like the granddaddy of technical analysis—it’s old, but still quietly running the show behind the scenes. At its core? Simple logic: the trend is your friend… until it smacks you in the face. Charles Dow figured that for a market move to be legit, both the industrials and the transportation sectors had to agree. Back then it was railroads; now we call it the Dow Jones Transportation Average. Same concept, updated vehicles.

Here’s the cheat sheet version:

1. Trends come in threes: primary (the big one), secondary (the bouncer), and minor (the jittery one).
2. Confirmation is key: Industrials and Transport must both make higher highs (or lower lows) to validate a trend.
3. Volume is the hype man: more volume, more credibility behind the move.
4. A trend stays in motion until proven otherwise—don’t call a reversal too early.
5. Closing time matters: daily closes carry the weight, not the lunchtime wiggles.

In plain English: If only one side’s moving, don’t trust it. Real trends come with company. And when both lines sing the same tune—with volume backing the beat—that’s when you pay attention. Dow Theory doesn’t promise precision; it promises context. And context is what keeps you from buying tops and panic-selling bottoms.

A few months back, I found myself staring at the charts and wondering, “What happens to the S&P 500 over the next 5 to 10 days when the NASDAQ and the Dow close with opposite signs?” One green, one red—like they’re not even in the same room. You know the deal: NASDAQ is your tech playground, while the Dow’s got steel, grease, and whatever industrial muscle is left. I started treating this mismatch as a possible divergence signal—something that might whisper, “Hey, something’s off here.”

Now, I wasn’t trying to solve all of Market’s mysteries—just poking around. I wanted to see if this oddity said anything useful: Does it mark a trend change? Does it show up at the end of a run or smack in the middle? And why does it happen in the first place?

I’ll save the philosophical answers for another time. What I will share is what I found when looking at the S&P 500 in the short term—what typically happens in the next 0 to 5 days, and then in the 5 to 10 days that follow. The rest? Well, if you’re curious, there’s a rabbit hole waiting for you.

So, what actually happens when the NASDAQ and the Dow decide to part ways for the day? Spoiler: in the short run, not much. The S&P 500, that great democratic index of market sentiment, doesn’t really pick a side in the first few days. It kind of shrugs. Flat returns, direction all over the place, and frankly nothing meaningful to hang your hat on. But if you extend your view out a bit—say, into the second week—you start to see a soft upward drift. Nothing crazy, just a gentle nudge higher, like the Market’s quietly making up its mind. And here’s where it gets a bit more telling: when it’s the NASDAQ that’s green and the Dow that’s dragging, the S&P tends to perform better. The tech optimism seems to carry more weight, giving the S&P a more consistent lift over the next 10 days. Flip it around—Dow up, NASDAQ down—and the pattern loses its rhythm, more noise than signal. In short: not all divergences are created equal, and when the future leans tech, the S&P tends to lean with it.

So why am I dragging this out now? Simple. We’ve had a nice little run since the 23rd, and forecasts were already calling for a breather this past week—which we got. Then, on July 1st, we had a juicy divergence: Dow in the green, NASDAQ not so much. And with next week looking like it could kick back into gear—especially with the July DOIs hinting at some action as early as the 7th—it felt like the perfect moment to dust off this signal and see if it actually does something… or just takes up another line in the spreadsheet.

What happened last week? Forecasts were expecting the Market to hang out somewhere between R1 and R2—but on the final day, it decided to flex a little and punched through R2, wrapping things up near R3. Close enough for government work.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6393
R2	6347
R1	6314
Close	6279
S1	6105
S2	6085
S3	6017

Forecasts

I’m keeping it brief for the next two weeks—not because I’m vanishing (well, I will be, but that’s another story), but because the end-of-month and end-of-quarter forecasts are already packed below. So here’s the short-term view: I expect the Market to rise into the 11th, with that upward move potentially sticking around until the 15th. Around that point, I’m eyeing a pullback that could stretch into the 23rd. Then we may see a bumpy climb from the 24th to the 28th, followed by a more decisive move upward to close out the month.

After that? Expect August to be a slow, choppy drift downward—nothing too exciting, which frankly suits me just fine. No need to force trades in the Market’s summer autopilot mode. For now, I’m placing the potential high of the month somewhere between the 11th and 15th.

End of Month

June’s DOIs: 05th, 10th, 23rd, 27th.

The blue lines mark the DOI dates mentioned above. Just a reminder—DOIs (Dates of Interest) are when I expect a potential shift in the Market’s direction. Now, let’s take a quick look at how that played out last month:

On the 5th, we got a red candle—but the 6th quickly flipped the tone, with the Market confirming its intention to climb. Not my favorite setup. The 10th brought a slow, choppy drift lower, and sure enough, the uptrend resumed on the 23rd. From the 27th onward, the Market basically went sideways.

All in all? Aside from the 5th, I was pretty happy with that map.

End of Quarter

This will be the last forecast for end of year target and behaviour. I will paste in here the original analysis made in January 2025.

From a longer-term (year-ly) perspective, the so-called “2025 apocalypse” was a popular call—guilty as charged. However, this is likely to mark the bottom for the entire year. Some corrections are expected around the first two weeks of March (around 200 points, give or take), which could present another solid ‘buy-and-hold’ opportunity. Beyond that, the Market is expected to rise until around mid-July, where a sideways-to-down phase (less than 200 points) might take over, lasting until the final days of August. From there, a rise into September could follow, pausing in the middle of the month before a small correction to close out September. October? Likely another leg up, pushing into mid-November, after which the Market may shift into its classic “I have no idea what to do in December” mode. That mess might just recover during the last two weeks of December because, well, that’s how markets like to end the year—full of surprises.

Don’t plan on changing my outlook for how the Market behaves—I still expect it to follow that same general pattern. Now, about the target: originally it was 7200 by year-end, and I left it there in March. This will be the final adjustment. As much as I’d love to keep 7200 alive, realistically, it doesn’t look like it’s in the cards anymore. So I’m dialing it back to 6800 by 31/12/2025.

Seasonal Context & Events

Technically, it’s the official start of earnings season—so watch for major corporate headlines coming down the pipeline. There are no options expirations this week, but keep in mind the holiday on the 4th: Markets will close early on the 3rd and remain shut on the 4th. We’re also sitting at both end-of-quarter and end-of-month—so expect some potential volatility from options rolling over and cash flows shifting as funds rebalance. It’s a tricky week: clean on options, but earnings, holiday timing, and quarter‑end flows all lining up could squeeze the tape in unexpected ways.

Key events include:

• 01st July 14:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 03rd July 12:30UTC Unemployment Rate
• Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Couple of non-technical thoughts for the week—mostly reminders I like to repeat to myself, especially now that it’s summer and I find myself more often chasing sunlight than setups.

Before diving into charts, I run two quick internal diagnostics. The first is what I call the “Brain Check”—a quick audit of my emotions and energy levels. I ask myself how I’m feeling, how drained I am, how sharp or foggy my head is. If the day’s been garbage, odds are my alertness is too—and that’s when stupid trades tend to sneak in. This check gives me a read on what’s going on under the hood and also hands me back a bit of control. If something’s off emotionally, I write it down. Putting feelings on paper somehow tames them—either neutralizes them or at least brings them within manageable limits.

The second check is what I call “The Sync Check.” I write out what I expected the Market to do, and then I compare it to what the Market is actually doing. If they match, great—I open the charts. If not, I try to understand why. And if I can’t figure it out? I walk. I close the charts and step away. No exceptions. Why? Because unmet expectations create frustration, and frustration invites cognitive dissonance. Those two, together, are a cocktail for bad decisions—and I’ve been down that road before. It ends with regret and blown trades, every time. Not interested in repeating that experiment.

Now, for a little confession. That turn on the 23rd? Nailed it in the forecast. Did I act on it? Not at all. I was out of sync and halfway into a long weekend. Do I regret it? Nope. I expect to take a dozen trades per year, give or take. And I’d rather take six trades that actually work than twelve that just look good on entry but go nowhere. As I’ve said before—and will keep repeating—the first step to making money is simply to stop losing it. In June, I made zero trades. Zero gains. But the discipline it took to do nothing when the temptation was high? That was a win. The ability to walk away when you’re not in the zone—that’s real growth. And the satisfaction that comes from not forcing it? That’s worth more than any quick percentage pop. It tells me something’s shifted—that I’ve actually internalized a few lessons from the faceplants of the past. Trading-wise, June was my best month this year. No profits, just pure discipline—and honestly, that feels better than chasing green. Meanwhile, on the investing side? Quiet record high on the P/L. No complaints here.

What happened last week? Come on—you don’t need me to spell it out. Even the imaginary dog I don’t own could’ve been more accurate.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6273
R2	6236
R1	6203
Close	6173
S1	6033
S2	6020
S3	5997

Forecasts

Originally, I planned to release both an end‑of‑month and yearly forecasts update—after all, it’s also the end of the quarter, so I’d normally adjust the annual target one last time. But I held off. Here’s why:

If you remember the first 2025 article, I forecasted a rise in early July, followed by a decline in the last two weeks. Now it looks like the upside rally that started around June 23rd matches that expectation—and with the final DOI for June on the 27th, I’d rather wait a few more days for clarity before revising anything.

If this June surge was the start of what should’ve happened in early July, then a pullback is likely sometime in the first two weeks—though I don’t expect another April‑level correction. Would I take it? Sure. But realism says: not that intense.

Another point: summer’s always hectic for me, so I’m not always in sync with the Market. That’ll probably cause more “meh” forecasts like last week’s—too short, too quick.

But enough excuses—what’s the setup for next week? We’re sitting at new all-time highs, which tends to be catnip for retailers… and the perfect exit cue for smart money. So what’s next? Likely a pause—some digestion—before another push higher in the second week of July. Unless something dramatic yanks the Market down to S1, I’m expecting a bit of hovering around R1 and R2 for now. Support levels below are solid, so the Market’s going to need a pretty compelling reason to crack through them.

DOIs for July are: 7th, 15th, 23rd, 31st!

Seasonal Context & Events

We’re officially out of earnings season—but the next cycle isn’t far off, just a couple weeks away—so earnings-driven volatility is on pause for now. There are no options expirations this week, and the calendar is free of holidays to muddy the flow. That said, we’re heading into month-end and quarter-end, which means end-of-period inflows and outflows could shake up prices as funds rebalance and managers tidy up portfolios.

Key events include:

• 24th June 14:00UTC FED Chair Powell Testimony
• 25th June 14:00UTC FED Chair Powell Testimony
• 26th June 12:30UTC GDP
• 26th June 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 27th June 12:30UTC PCE Price Index
• 27th June 12:30UTC Personal Income
• 27th June 12:30UTC Personal Spending
• Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Long week on my end, which means a short article for you—didn’t have the time to prep anything deep this round. I’ll do my best to make up for it next week!

What happened last week? Forecasts suggested Friday’s drop was news-driven and pointed to a likely bounce. A resumption to the upside was expected, though caution was advised due to the cluster of resistance looming just above.

And sure enough, Monday kicked off with a jump—only to run face-first into that same resistance zone. Turns out that cluster wasn’t just for show. The Market found no compelling reason to punch through, and without a reason, there’s no energy.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6076
R2	6036
R1	5999
Close	5967
S1	5903
S2	5853
S3	5817

Forecasts

Where are we now? Smack in the middle of the year—which means it’s time to peek at forecasts soon. But before that, what about next week? My remaining DOIs (Dates of Interest) for June are the 23rd and 27th. So let’s keep it simple…

I expect a move down into midweek—S1 to S2 area seems solid for a landing zone—and then a rebound by the end of the week. What if the Market does the exact opposite? Well, that’s fine too. I’m not in this to be flawless—I’m in it to adapt.

Seasonal Context & Events

This week, we’re officially out of earnings season, but not out of things to watch. Options expirations are back on the table, and the calendar’s throwing in a holiday curveball on the 19th with markets closed. On top of that, it’s the third Wednesday of the month—so we’ve got the 10-year bond auction lined up, always a good one to keep on the radar. No end-of-month flows to mess with positioning either, so the landscape is cleaner, but don’t mistake that for quiet—this combo can still stir things up.

Key events include:

• 18th June 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 18th June 18:00UTC Fed Interest Rate Decision
• 18th June 18:30UTC Fed Press Conference
• Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

A couple of weeks ago, we looked at a tool that, when paired with others, could help identify potential tops. Now it’s time to flip the chart and talk bottoms.

Same disclaimer applies: this isn’t some sacred formula. It’s not math—it’s observation. So if you came looking for The Answer™, you’re in the wrong place. What you’ll find here is a framework based on experience—specifically, a question I started asking myself years ago: “How many times would I have been wrong investing (yep, let’s underline that—investing, not trading) when the VIX spiked above a certain level?”

That’s when I began mapping out historical VIX spikes and cross-referencing them with price behavior. The goal? To see how often that classic Buffet-ism held water: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

Now, if you’re not familiar with the VIX—quick refresher:

The VIX (also known as the “fear index”) tracks market volatility based on S&P 500 options. In simple terms, the higher it goes, the more freaked out people are. Low VIX = calm markets, high VIX = panic mode.

Before diving into charts, I identified what I call “common levels”—similar to basic support and resistance, but for the VIX. We won’t use all of them, just two key ones that tend to matter most: 66.41, and 50.00..

Let’s dig in and see if fear really is a feature—not a bug—when it comes to bottom spotting.

VIX Spikes at or above 66.41

Date	Value	Peak On	Value	Market Bottom	Days from Spike	Max Drawdown	P/L to Next Spike
10/10/2008	76.94	23/10/2008	96.40	06/03/2009	104	-35.34%	+175.86%
12/03/2020	76.83	18/03/2020	85.47	23/03/2020	7	-9.80%	+109.07%
05/08/2024	65.73*	05/08/2024	65.73*	05/08/2024	0	0%	NA

As you can see, there are technically only two major historical spikes above 66.41 —plus a third minor outlier, because the 05/08/2024 spike was so close to that level, I included it too.

The key takeaway? If I had used VIX > 66.41 as my sole signal to enter a buy-and-hold position, I’d have been right every single time—each spike marked a solid entry point. Sure, you might have stared at a red P/L for a few days (or weeks), but over the long run, those were golden moments for stepping in.

The only problem? In the last 17 years, I would’ve only entered the Market three times.

VIX Spikes at or above 50.00

Date	Value	Peak On	Value	Market Bottom	Days from Spike	Max Drawdown	P/L to Next Spike
01/09/1998	53.43	08/10/1998	59.71	08/10/1998	26	0%	+0.66%
21/09/2001	57.31	21/09/2001	57.31	21/09/2001	0	0%	+9.42%
06/10/2008	58.24	23/10/2008	96.40	06/03/2009	104	-35.34%	+79.15%
24/08/2015	53.29	24/08/2015	53.29	24/08/2015	0	0%	+42.35%
06/02/2018	49.21*	06/02/2018	49.21*	24/12/2018	222	-12.76%	+10.28%
06/03/2020	54.39	18/03/2020	85.47	23/03/2020	11	-24.72%	+74.48%
05/08/2024	65.73	05/08/2024	65.73	05/08/2024	0	0%	-2.39%
07/04/2025	60.13	07/04/2025	60.13	07/04/2025	0	0%	NA

A few more instances show up, but let’s be clear—this isn’t a magic buy/sell switch. Still, when used in context with other tools and the broader environment, it can definitely highlight some solid buy-and-hold opportunities.

Summary

A few personal takeaways from this little VIX experiment:

• VIX alone doesn’t pinpoint Market bottoms.
• The 2022 bear market didn’t even qualify for any major spike levels.
• Used alongside other tools, VIX can highlight solid buy-and-hold opportunities.
• Event-driven drops with VIX above 50 (e.g., the recent tariff drama) have often marked great entry points.
• A low VIX doesn’t mean the Market is heading higher—see: 2022.
• And a VIX peak doesn’t mean the bottom is in.
• The longest delays between a VIX spike and a Market bottom have consistently occurred in years ending in 8—1998, 2008, and 2018.
• A short time between a VIX spike and the Market bottom doesn’t guarantee you’ll avoid seeing some negative unrealized P/L in your account (COVID).
• Buying at the close during a VIX spike doesn’t guarantee your unrealized P/L will be green by the time the next spike hits (05/08/2024).

“My honest takeaway? Next time the crowd’s panicking and VIX spikes above 50, you bet I won’t waste time—I’ll be looking to go long before the headlines even cool down.”

What happened last week? Forecasts were calling for more upside, but with a warning to be cautious around the 10th for a possible shift. Technically, we saw a peak on the 11th—but that actually lines up well with the forecast, so I still count it as valid.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6046
R2	6020
R1	5999
Close	5976
S1	5899
S2	5844
S3	5824

Forecasts

I usually avoid dropping news, geopolitical, or macro commentary into this space. Why? If you’re into technical analysis, you know this already: everything known to the public is already reflected on the chart.

That’s not me dodging explanations—but with the latest tones in the climate and the upcoming expiration of the “90 days pause,” forecasting has gotten messier than usual.

My gut tells me Friday’s drop was news-driven. I tried finding an entry for the downside—couldn’t nail it; I’m not that sharp… yet. What does that mean? To me, it signals a likely resumption of the upside next week. That clusterfuck of resistance overhead? Yeah, it might have a word or two before we go anywhere fast.

My next DOI is the 23rd. Does that mean we’ll just keep rising until then? Maybe. But given everything in play, it feels about as predictable as flipping a coin. Let’s see how the Market actually plays it out.

Seasonal Context & Events

We’re officially out of earnings season, with no more headline-grabbing reports to stir the pot. There are also no options expirations this week, no holidays to distort the calendar, and no end-of-month inflows or outflows to mess with price action—basically, a clean slate. But here’s a new item for the checklist: it’s the second Wednesday of the month, which means bond markets might start whispering something interesting. Keep an eye there—sometimes they lead the dance while equities just follow the rhythm.

Key events include:

• 11th June 12:30UTC Inflation Rate
• 11th June 12:30UTC CPI
• 12th June 12:30UTC PPI
• 12th June 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Just a couple things for weekend meditation—nothing technical this time, so if you came here for “buy here, sell here,” you can safely skip this. Something’s boiling, but I need a bit more time before calling it. Last week was about tops—maybe next time we’ll talk about bottoms. Who knows.

Now and then, I get the opportunity (and the privilege) to talk with people I truly consider important—those rare ones who seem to appear in your life for a reason. One of the things that came up recently was this pervasive state of confusion a lot of people seem to be stuck in. And I don’t mean confused like “I don’t know what to do tomorrow.” I mean existentially confused. Directionless. Distracted. Asking the wrong questions to the wrong people—and then wondering why the answers don’t help.

So why are people so confused?

Here’s my take: we’ve got an entire generation raised on algorithms instead of awareness. Social media made everything look instant and curated. Education systems are still playing catch-up with the real world. And everyone is so busy chasing dopamine hits and validation, they’ve forgotten how to sit in silence and just think for themselves.

On top of that, life has been packaged and sold as something linear and fair—study hard, get the job, retire with a smile. But real life? It’s anything but linear. Life isn’t fair. The world doesn’t owe you answers, success, or clarity. Most people are lucky they live in a world with infrastructure and rules—strip that away, and many wouldn’t survive a year. Harsh? Maybe. True? Definitely.

There’s also this failure to distinguish roles. People ask health advice from friends who are perpetually sick. They take financial tips from coworkers who can’t manage a savings account. They confuse proximity with expertise. Just because someone is near you—or loud—doesn’t mean they’re qualified to guide you.

It’s happened to me dozens of times. Someone in worse shape than me telling me how to train. Someone broke giving tips on how to get rich. And the confidence? Off the charts. That’s how you end up confused—trusting the conviction of someone who’s never walked the path you’re trying to take.

That’s why clarity—real clarity—starts with asking the right questions. And more importantly, asking them to the right people. If you want to climb a mountain, talk to someone who’s actually done it. They’ll tell you where it gets steep. What shoes to wear. What not to carry. Everyone else? They’re just guessing.

That mindset shift is one of the reasons I started this whole stock market journey. Back in 2018, I didn’t even know what a stock was. I was looking at pension plans and mutual funds, hoping they’d somehow guarantee a comfortable retirement. Then something clicked. I thought—if I’m going to lose money, I’d rather do it on my own terms. I’d rather take the hit and know I was behind the wheel, not paying someone else to crash the car for me.

So here’s the takeaway: protect your direction. Don’t let other people’s confusion become your own. Be mindful of who you’re asking advice from—and whether their life reflects anything close to what you want.

You don’t need perfect answers. You just need better questions—and the discipline to ask them to the right people.

What happened last week? I was watching for a breakout—either a clean move above those two peaks or a drop below the low in between. What did we get? Technically, a sort of breakout to the upside. But why do I say “sort of”? Because, well… meh. I didn’t like the feel of it. It didn’t convince me enough to take the trade. Could it turn into a solid breakout and rally higher? Absolutely. But I’d rather miss a move than force a trade I don’t trust.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6143
R2	6073
R1	6041
Close	6000
S1	5949
S2	5929
S3	5895

Forecasts

Friday’s move might give the Market a green start on Monday—unless, of course, something dramatic blows up over the weekend (always a risk). But here’s the thing: don’t get distracted. When the noise gets loud—especially in the media—it usually means something real is simmering quietly beneath the surface. Keep your clarity. Keep your awareness. Those two are your edge.

As for the forecast, I still lean bullish overall, but I’m eyeing a possible pause. I had penciled in a drop starting around the 5th… didn’t happen (yet). So now I’m watching the 10th–11th as a potential pivot zone. Could be up, could be down, could be just more sideways. Either way, I’ll let price tell the story—check back next Friday.

Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season? Officially wrapped—close the books and move on. This week brings no options expirations and no holidays, which means the Market’s not getting any artificial jolts or breaks. What we do have, though, are end-of-month flows—those lovely portfolio rebalancing moves that can throw in a bit of noise or spark short-term action. So while the calendar’s quiet, don’t be surprised if price action gets a little twitchy as money managers do their usual end-of-month housekeeping.

Key events include:

• 03rd June 14:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings
• 05th June 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 06th June 12:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

I don’t think we’ve covered this before—pretty sure we haven’t. But even if we did, someone new here might find it useful, and if you already know it… consider this a quick refresher.

Let’s keep it simple: the S&P 500 is what’s called a market-cap weighted index. That means the bigger the company, the more influence it has on the index. So when giants like Apple or Microsoft move, they drag the whole thing with them—up or down. Now, indexes like VALUA or SPXEW work differently. SPXEW stands for the S&P 500 Equal Weight, where every stock gets the same importance—Apple counts just as much as the smallest name in the index. VALUA, on the other hand, is a value-focused index—it tracks the performance of stocks that are considered “cheap” based on certain financial metrics. So while the S&P 500 might be flying because of a few tech giants, the equal-weight or value indexes could be telling a totally different story. That’s why looking beyond just the headline index matters—it shows whether the strength is broad or just riding on the backs of a few names.

I’ll post a few examples where this bit of knowledge could’ve helped guide a decision. Does it work every time? Of course not. But in my experience, it’s one of the more reliable tools when it comes to spotting major turning points—so we’re talking longer-term signals here.

Here’s what we’re looking at:

• Blue Line – S&P 500 (market-cap weighted)
• Red Line – SPXEW (S&P 500 Equal Weight)
• Violet Line – VALUA (Value index)

The scale is weekly, and we’re measuring in terms of % change.

The green arrow marks the week of July 9th, 2007. The red arrow? That’s October 8th, 2007. What stands out? The S&P 500 pushed to a higher high—but take a look at the other two: SPXEW and VALUA didn’t follow. No confirmation from the broader or value segments. And what happened next? Well… we all know how that story ends.

Fast forward to 2020—yes, the signal’s still shown up, but in a more subtle way. Not always as clean on the chart, but definitely there if you dig in. Go take a look for yourself: July 2011, May 2015, and September 2018. The signs were there, just a bit quieter.

Same colors, same meaning. The green arrow marks the week of January 13th, 2020, and the red one is February 10th, 2020. The divergence? Still there. No need to refresh your memory on what came next—just glance at the chart, it says it all.

Above, you’re looking at the beginning of the 2022 bear market—once again, the divergence laid the groundwork before the drop.

Above, you’re seeing what recently happened with the whole tariffs situation and the usual round of blablabla. The divergence showed up again—quiet, but there.

Now, does this magically predict a financial crisis, a global pandemic like COVID-19, or a sudden geopolitical decision? Not at all. But if you’re already thinking, “Hmm, something big to the downside might be coming,” then this can serve as a solid confirmation tool—especially when the usual market whispers start circling: “It’s going down.”

What about bottoms? You might think, “Oh easy! So I just look for bullish divergence, right?”
Yeah… not really. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work nearly as well—or as often—as it does with tops.

Why? Because you’ve got to accept a hard truth: bottoms are events—they happen fast. Tops, on the other hand, are processes—they take their time, unravel slowly, and give you clues. Bottoms? They just show up, slap you in the face, and take off.

What happened last week? Forecasts pointed up for the shortened week—and direction-wise, they weren’t wrong. But those R levels? Stickier than expected. After Tuesday’s candle, I figured we’d smash right through them. Instead, the Market showed up with a bit more resistance than enthusiasm.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6095
R2	6049
R1	5988
Close	5911
S1	5785
S2	5719
S3	5677

Forecasts

Plenty on the radar this week. We’re kicking off a new month—and historically, that’s often a bullish stretch, especially the final days of the previous month and the first few of the new one. But charts are throwing mixed signals. The two red arrows highlight a high and a lower high—classic setup that usually leads to a lower low. If the Market closes below the lowest low between those two highs (which happens to sit right on the blue and green lines), it could confirm a double top and trigger a drop, potentially down to S2 and into that open gap.

Resistance levels are more spaced out than last week, so upside—if it comes—might face less friction. But here’s the catch: we’re also entering beach season, aka the part of the year when retail volume naps in the sun and Market moves get thinner and weirder. I had expected some action between May 29th and June 5th, but so far, the charts aren’t playing along. When I see this kind of divergence between technical setups and actual behavior, I lean one way: choppiness.

I’m watching Thursday (around) as the first real window for something meaningful to break loose. Until then, stay flexible. A close below the key low could trigger downside. A new higher high or a solid higher low might light the fuse for a push upward. In other words—direction is likely, conviction is optional. Trade accordingly.

Seasonal Context & Events

Technically, we’re still in earnings season—but let’s be honest, it’s basically over. What’s left are just the stragglers wrapping things up in the final stretch. There are no options expirations this week, but take note: the Market will be closed on Monday, which shortens the trading week. We’ll also see end-of-month inflows and outflows come into play, adding a bit of flow-driven movement as funds rebalance and portfolios get cleaned up.

Key events include:

• 28th May 18:00UTC FOMC Minutes
• 29th May 12:30UTC GDP
• 29th May 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims
• 30th May 12:30UTC PCE Price Index
• 30th May 12:30UTC Personal Income
• 30th May 12:30UTC Personal Spending

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

“You’d rather be right or make money?”
I ask myself this sometimes—and you probably should too. It’s easy to answer when you’re both right and making money. But when you’re losing and still clinging to being right… well, that’s when the question really matters.

I might have already said this before, I honestly don’t remember, but I keep a small spreadsheet where I’ve logged every trade since 2018. The surprising part—and unfortunately it took me longer than I’d like to admit to fully understand—is that before I could be profitable, I had to be disciplined.

Discipline means entering a trade when all or at least the majority of your conditions are met. But it also means having the strength to say, “This isn’t working,” and close the trade—even when your conditions were met on entry. It’s easy to write that on a blog or test it in a paper trading account. But when it’s your actual money and your ego on the line, believe me, it’s a whole different game.

Hope is usually the first emotion that sneaks in:
“Yeah, it’ll recover.”
But if you’re dealing with options like I am, time isn’t just a factor—it’s your best friend or your worst enemy. There is no “wait and see.” And there is definitely no room for “hope.”

Before we get into the forecasts, just one more thing.
On Friday, the Market took a dip. You probably already know why, and if not, someone out there will explain it. But I’m not interested in the “why”—I’m interested in how the Market reacted.

Remember: at the open, it’s mostly retail traders driving the action. Smart money comes in later in the day. So what does that behavior tell us? To me, it says the usual—retail reacted emotionally, probably thinking, “Here it comes, the Market’s going to crash.” And then smart money stepped in and said, “Thanks, we’ll take it from here.”

That also tells me something else: these types of announcements might already be priced in. They’re not having the same shock effect they used to. That’s worth thinking about.

Because when the Market doesn’t react to bad news the way it “should,” or doesn’t rally in a month when it usually does, that could be a signal. A sign of hidden strength. Or hidden weakness. Either way, it’s something to remember as we move forward.

I typically use May as a barometer for the summer. A weak or negative May tells me summer could lean bearish or just drag sideways. But a strong May? That usually opens the door for a solid summer—upside potential, trading opportunities, momentum. Now, looking at May’s candle so far… it’s longer than usual, and that upper wick? Also longer than I’d like. What does it mean? Honestly, I have no clue—not yet.

What happened last week? Forecasts leaned more toward a sideways week—and that’s pretty much what we got. A bad reaction here, yet another announcement there… sure, it added some movement, but still not the kind of price action I like to see – I trade based on evidence, not news. Choppy, reactive, and directionless—not exactly inspiring.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	5958
R2	5949
R1	5918
Close	5802
S1	5691
S2	5598
S3	5554

Forecasts

A few things to consider here. That weekend gap from May 10th–11th is still open, and the Market has already shown signs of leaning toward closing it. The orange circle—previously resistance in early May—may now act as support. On the bigger picture, longer-term charts still point down, although signs of recovery are beginning to show. Medium-term charts have been trending upward for a few weeks now, while short-term? They just needed a break. We closed near the blue line, which marks a +20% move from the April low—if you know your definitions, you know what that implies.

This week is a shorter one due to the holiday, and as I mentioned in the previous post, I’m expecting more meaningful moves toward the very end of the month—specifically around May 29th–30th. Direction? To me, it still looks like the upside has the edge but that gap may need to close before we continue.

Back at the start of May, I posted my DOIs (Dates of Interest) for the month: the 5th, 7th, 13th–15th, and—just added last week—the 29th–30th. These are typically points where I expect a change in direction (sideways included). So, did they play out?

Well… sort of. On the 5th we shifted from up to sideways for a few days. On the 7th, we resumed the climb. The 13th–15th range? That one didn’t land—Market didn’t really change direction until the 20th. Now we’ll see what happens with the final set on the 29th–30th.

As for June? To me, it looks like a choppy month. The monthly candle may end up white, but with long wicks on both sides—classic indecision. My DOIs for June are shaping up as the 5th, 10th, 23rd, and 27th. That would suggest up to four tradeable pivots next month. Is that likely? Maybe. But if history has taught me anything, it’s that even in the best months, I rarely get more than three solid opportunities. So once again, reality keeps my feet firmly on the ground.

Seasonal Context & Events

Let’s still call it earnings season—even if, realistically, it’s just the leftovers at this point. Most of the heavyweights have reported, and the Market’s running on fumes when it comes to earnings surprises. This week, there’s not much else on the schedule to stir the pot: no options expiration, no holidays, and no end-of-month inflows or outflows to distort the flow.

Key events include:

• 22nd May 12:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

The Trading Week Recap

Just a couple things for weekend meditation—nothing technical here, so if you came for “buy here, sell here,” you can safely skip this.

How many times have you been told, “Don’t take it personally”? Me? Thousands. Funny thing is, depending on your character (go look up Jim Rohn’s definition—still the best I’ve found), you probably had to take things personally a thousand times just to finally stop taking them personally. That’s been my path: thousands, minus one.

Here’s the deal: the bad news is you will take it personally, over and over, until you’ve made the right adjustments to your own wiring. The good news? The moment you truly stop taking things personally—that’s when growth starts to show up. A genuine mistake, not driven by emotion but just part of executing your plan, gives you useful data. It tells you where you are, what needs work. To me, it also signals something deeper: you’re still in the game. You’re still trying.

Now, emotional/reactive mistakes? Those hit harder. They’re tougher to forgive. If your flight’s late and you miss an appointment—fine. If your flight’s on time but you missed the meeting because you were too busy complaining about airlines to a random stranger at the gate, well… that’s a sign it’s time to grow up.

One more thing, since people keep assuming I spend my life glued to a screen—spoiler: I don’t. I spend more time on a sofa reading books than in front of charts. Lately, I’ve been reading about willpower. And the takeaway is simple but powerful: willpower is power. It drains. And like any power source, it needs to recharge.

You use willpower more than you think—sticking to a diet, dealing with people you can’t stand, getting yourself to the gym, resisting the urge to throw your phone out the window. If you find yourself slipping on the things you know you should be doing, you might not be lazy—you might just be low on willpower. So ask yourself: how are you recharging it?

The easiest way? Rest. For me, routines have been a quiet superpower. Automating small daily decisions saves willpower. Routine might look boring to people who have no direction, but to me, it’s structure—it’s what makes the whole thing work. There are other recharges: eating right (spoiler: Coke doesn’t count), meditating, and most importantly, reminding yourself why you’re doing what you’re doing—especially the things you don’t want to do.

And yes, willpower can be trained. You can build capacity. Start small: leave your phone in the other room for ten minutes a day. Resist tiny urges. That resistance builds self-control, willpower, and—bonus—stamina.

Small habits. Big edge.

What happened last week? Forecasts were pointing down—but to make them look right, I’d have to flip my screens upside down, because the Market did the exact opposite. That said, the weekly range is still holding price firmly in check (almost).

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6093
R2	6043
R1	5997
Close	5958
S1	5896
S2	5846
S3	5749

Forecasts

In the last forecast I said, “So, am I saying the Market collapses on Monday? Doubt it.” And here’s why—because you all saw what happened over the weekend in Switzerland. Just like the April 3rd event, the outcome was fairly clear, and Market responded as expected. I got an upside signal on the 8th, closed the trades on the 13th—left some pennies on the table, sure, but I’m too busy counting the dollars to care.

Earnings season? Technically still part of May, but let’s be real—we’re basically done. What’s left is a one-and-a-half-month stretch until July earnings kick in again. And while it initially looked like a setup for a clean correction, it’s starting to smell more like sideways boredom than anything dramatic. I don’t expect any big directional move (up or down) until the last 2–3 days of the month.

My plan now? Skip next week’s noise, where sideways remains the base case, and keep an eye on the last stretch of May for something more decisive.

Remember—always keep your emotions in check. If the Market does the exact opposite of what you expected, acknowledge it, ask yourself “What did I miss?”, and move on. Your trading log will reflect your resilience—not how good your (or my) forecasts were.