Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season is over, and with it goes the usual magic lift that tends to prop things up. If you take a step back and look at the January and February monthly candles, how would you define this past earnings season? For me, it wasn’t a disaster, but it wasn’t anything spectacular either—just a market digesting numbers without much of a knockout punch. Now, we’re in a stretch with no major options expirations, no holidays to distort flows, and nothing artificial holding things up or pushing them down. That said, early-month inflows and outflows can still have their say, so while the calendar may be quiet, the Market isn’t necessarily asleep.

Key events include:

03rd March 15:00UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI

05th March 15:00UTC ISM Services PMI

06th March 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

07th March 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6102
R2	6087
R1	6040
Close	5954
S1	5820
S2	5795
S3	5694

Wrap Up & Forecast

The crypto circus—where every dip is a “healthy correction” and every rally is “just the beginning.” I don’t follow it, don’t trade it, and frankly, don’t care. That doesn’t mean it’s a bad instrument; it just means I have no interest. But the sheer delusion around BTC’s “inevitable moon mission” never fails to make me laugh.

Still remember late November, talking with a friend about BTC: “Nah man, that thing will have to go down around 78k-80k before going up.” And sure enough, here we are (not done yet). One of the reasons I stay away from crypto? Too many amateurs moving way too much money. It’s like watching kids drive sports cars—thrilling, reckless, and bound to end in a wreck.

“Well, how did you know it was going to go down if you don’t follow it?”

Simple—I do follow COIN and MSTR, and they weren’t exactly strapping in for liftoff. If the supposed “big BTC run” was so inevitable, those two should’ve been showing signs of a countdown, not floating aimlessly in zero gravity. Sometimes, you don’t need to stare directly at the sun to know if it’s shining—you just check the shadows.

“Well then, how did you set that target if you don’t follow it?”

Easy—big time frame chart, weekly and monthly. A couple of simple moving averages, a couple of indicators. Took me literally two seconds. You don’t need to be a crypto disciple to spot an obvious level.

Offended? Guess what, the sun still rises tomorrow. Markets don’t care, and neither do I.

It honestly annoys me that I even had to mention crypto in my blog, but let’s be real—I needed to release some of that laughing pressure from my November forecast. Watching it play out exactly as expected? Too good to keep bottled up. Promise, next week I’ll talk about something actually interesting. It will (most likely) be about the dangers of trading or investing while being swayed by external noise (being biased)—because, let’s be honest, the Market already has enough ways to humble you without adding bias to the mix.

What happened last week? Last week started off like a well-behaved student following the syllabus—Monday hit S1, Tuesday checked in at S2, all very textbook. Then, from the 25th, we entered the great indecision phase, where a bounce was the anticipated move. But on the 26th? Oh no, not on Mr. Market’s watch. An initial attempt to rise was swiftly smothered by selling pressure, a classic “nice try” moment.

Instead of the expected bounce, we took the scenic route straight to S3 on the 27th. And just when everyone had resigned themselves to doom, the last three hours of Friday decided to stage a comeback. Was that the bounce? A little late to the party, but hey, fashionably late is still an entrance.

Bonus trivia: The January 15th gap? Closed. The levels? Pretty spot on. The direction? Well… let’s just say “wrong” is a strong word—let’s go with “unexpectedly creative.” Lessons learned, move on. Next chart, please.

Up? Sure, one of the three inevitable choices. But how far? Oxygen looks plentiful up to R1—beyond that, we might be gasping for air.

Sideways? Not my top probability this week. But the Market does what it wants. If it drifts sideways instead of following the script, you adapt. Stubborn traders donate; flexible ones survive.

Down? If we slide, it won’t be pretty (at least for your Unrealized P/L, but who cares if you hold actual companies and not assets that produce, well… nothing? No offense, of course). My guess? S2 or lower.

My outlook: My bias? Down. Is that my Ego talking? No clue, but my inner voice won’t shut up about it. And honestly, I prefer my trades without unsolicited commentary from my subconscious. Had to warn you, I do not like to be biased, I like to have both options up and down (and sideways of course).

03/01/2025 article said “[…] Some corrections are expected around the first two weeks of March (around 200 points, give or take), which could present another solid ‘buy-and-hold’ opportunity. Beyond that, the Market is expected to rise until around mid-July[…]”

Momentum still seems to have some downward energy left (or so my bias insists), but I could see a short bounce into next week, maybe stalling at R1. Then what? March 4th-5th might bring the next leg down. If we sink further, we’re basically time-traveling to November 2024, cozying up to the ~$5700 zone. That, of course, would throw a wrench into the clean “January 13th was the low” storyline. So much for narrative simplicity.

A straight-line drop through March? Doubt it. I still see this selloff wrapping up around the 11th-12th. But just because selling cools off doesn’t mean buyers are stampeding in. If we’re talking real upside, patience is key—March 25th looks more promising for that. Until then, we watch, we adapt, and we brace for the Market’s next plot twist.

Seasonal Context & Events

This marks the seventh week of earnings, noted here for reference, though the bulk of reports have already been released. There are no options expirations affecting positioning and no holidays impacting market hours or liquidity. The main factor to consider is the typical end-of-month and beginning-of-month cash flows, as funds adjust allocations and capital moves accordingly.

Key events include:

27th February 13:30UTC GDP Price Index

27th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

28th February 13:30UTC PCE Price Index

28th February 13:30UTC Personal Income & Spending

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6142
R2	6044
R1	6018
Close	6013
S1	5965
S2	5900
S3	5866

Wrap Up & Forecast

Ah yes, the classic “Hey, you know stocks, what should I buy?” question. A guaranteed lose-lose scenario.

First off, let’s get one thing straight—I’d rather personally torch $10,000 learning a painful lesson than make a mediocre return because “someone told me to.” One way, you pay tuition to the market. The other, you become dependent on someone else’s (usually flawed) judgment. And reliance on others in Markets? That’s the express lane to regret.

Also, let’s talk about the social dynamics here: If they make money, you’re a genius. If they don’t, you’re a scam artist. Who needs that?

Then there’s the classic confusion—investing vs. speculating. Two completely different universes that just happen to share a few instruments. The real question is: What do you actually want? Generational wealth that compounds over decades? Or the fantasy of sipping mojitos on a beach with zero effort? Because the first is very achievable with consistent, low-maintenance investing. The second? That’s lottery-ticket nonsense peddled by dream merchants.

If they can read English, I point them to The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham. Yeah, it’s old. Yeah, it doesn’t cover everything. But if they just bought ETFs tracking broad indexes once or twice a year, they’d be miles ahead of most people. Wealth isn’t hard to create—riches are.

What happened last week? Two days up, two days down—mostly as expected. But Friday? That was a bit of a curveball. My initial forecast leaned toward a more balanced move, yet Friday’s drop was bigger than anticipated. On a weekly timeframe, it looked like a doji, but let’s be real—this wasn’t the clean textbook play I had in mind. Whether news-driven or just market mechanics, the bottom line is the same: the Market doesn’t care about Miss Technical Analysis. The only small victory? We closed right around S2. Yay, precision?

Up? Some of you are panicking—“OMG, the market will crash tomorrow!” (Relax, it’s Saturday. Joking.) A full-on crash? Unlikely. But a strong rally? Also doubtful. Any upside looks limited, and if we do get a move up, I’d expect it to struggle around the R1 level—more of a psychological barrier than a technical one.

Sideways? By the end of the week, it could look like a sideways grind.

Down? Yep, that’s a real possibility. A straight drop? Maybe, maybe not.

My outlook? I see another week of movement, but by Friday, we might just end up going in circles—like a donkey turning the waterwheel at a well, working hard but going nowhere. In short, I still expect downside to continue until the 25th, with a possible bounce starting on the 26th, potentially running up until March 3rd.

Since all S/R levels are once again outside the forecasted range of movement for the week… the blue dotted lines make their grand return!

6200$-6250$ by February 18th? The first appearance of that target was on the January 10, 2025 article. As that article stated:

“And then? Maybe an upward leg until February 18th-19th sounds plausible. But let’s be real—this won’t be all unicorns and rainbows. Corrections and sideways movements are almost guaranteed to show up along the way.”

Fast forward, and the highest high arrived on February 19th— close, but let’s not break out the champagne just yet. The peak? 6147$—a solid attempt, but 53 bucks short of the lower bound. A 1% miss might be “close enough” for some, but for those chasing excellence, it didn’t quite hit the mark. The call was 6200$-6250$, and price needed to step into that range—not hover outside like a hesitant party guest.

Next up? 5975$-5925$ by 11th March. March might not be throwing many trading opportunities, but if the setup holds, March 11th could be prime time for some strategic long-term accumulation. Let’s see if this one lands more precisely.

Seasonal Context & Events

We’re rolling into the sixth week of earnings season, but let’s be honest—the main event is pretty much over. What’s left? A few stragglers like Walmart, Target, and Home Depot taking their sweet time to report, plus a handful of small-cap names that most people won’t pay much attention to but still deserve a glance. Translation: earnings season is winding down.

Meanwhile, options expiration is lurking for next Friday, which means the usual end-of-week chaos could make an appearance. Oh, and let’s not forget the Market is taking a breather on the 17th for Washington’s Birthday—because even the algorithms need a holiday.

Key events include:

19th February 19:00UTC FOMC Minutes

20th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6249
R2	6212
R1	6188
Close	6114
S1	6054
S2	6013
S3	5962

Wrap Up & Forecast

Not much to dissect from last week—nothing that screamed, “Hey, here’s a fresh lesson to tattoo on your trading soul.” And yes, because knowledge isn’t something you “get” and then keep forever—it’s a treadmill, not an escalator. Someone once told me, “The difference between an expert and an amateur is just the time between mistakes.” Brutal. Accurate.

Speaking of amateurs, let’s talk about the 12th—a masterclass in why decisions should never be made at the open. Sure, you can act on a well-thought-out plan based on the previous day’s close. But jumping in just because a candle had the audacity to form? That’s a different game, and not one worth playing. Those giant gap-ups and gap-downs? They’re just a parade of traders making emotional decisions instead of sticking to a strategy. Do I like it? Do I hate it? Neither. It happens. The Market doesn’t care, and neither do I.

What happened last week? Ah, last week—where expectations met reality and promptly got ignored. I was eyeing that past Friday down move to keep rolling until the 12th, but the Market, in its infinite wisdom, decided, “Nah.” Did I lose sleep over it? Hardly. Being wrong is part of the game, and if you’re clinging to your predictions like a toddler to a security blanket, you’re setting yourself up for heartbreak. I stay detached, adjust, and keep moving.

Instead, we got a textbook sideways shuffle—until the 12th, when things finally got interesting, right on schedule. Some folks love to scream “trap!” when the Market does something they didn’t anticipate. It’s not a trap. It’s just people making emotional decisions instead of, you know, using actual evidence. If you call it a trap, what you’re really saying is, “I got played.” Own it. Learn from it. Move on.

By Thursday, price strutted above that lovely formation I sketched out with my highly advanced, borderline mystical technical analysis tools. Then Friday, the Market got a little shy—tried retesting the upper trendline, flirted with the high of 6127.47, and missed the target by a whopping $0.53. Devastating, truly—except I don’t count (or care about) pennies. Close enough is close enough.

What’s next? Guess!

Up? To where? Well, at the moment not far away there is potential for a short rise to the R1 level around 6188$.

Sideways? To me sideways means that the open on Monday will be close by to the close of Friday and it is actually a higher than past analysis probabilties.

Down? Well, for down will have to look around S2 level, but more in between S1 and S2 so between 6054$ and 6013$.

My outlook? If you’re staring at your charts like they’re speaking an alien language, congratulations—you’re in good company. Mine aren’t exactly whispering sweet nothings either. So yeah, welcome to the club.

Here’s what’s on the radar: it’s a short week, options expiration is coming up, and earnings season is fading into the background. That mix could lead to some stalling on the second trading day around R1, which means by next Friday, we might just end up right around Tuesday’s open. Exciting? Not particularly.

6200$-6250$ by February 18th? Unless the Market suddenly decides to pull off an 80-point sprint in a day, I wouldn’t bet on it. But hey, let’s check back next week and see just how accurate (or hilariously off) this forecast turns out to be.

Next stop? 6000$-6050$ by mid-March. If you’ve been following along since my first 2025 write-up, you’ll remember I’ve had my eye on the first two weeks of March for a drop. Whether the Market decides to play nice with that plan? We’ll find out soon enough.

Seasonal Context & Events

The fifth week of earnings season is here, bringing reports from Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors, with retailers, energy giants, utility companies, and healthcare firms stepping into the spotlight. No holidays, no options expirations—just another full week of Market movement shaped by earnings results and whatever narratives investors decide to latch onto.

Key events include:

11th February 15:00UTC Fed Chair Powell Testimony

12th February 13:30UTC Inflation Rate

12th February 13:30UTC CPI

12th February 15:00UTC Fed Chair Powell Testimony

13th February 13:30UTC PPI

13th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6182
R2	6152
R1	6128
Close	6025
S1	5910
S2	5877
S3	5846

Wrap Up & Forecast

Some might call it déjà vu—and honestly, how often does that happen? Hard to say. But if you’ve found yourself staring at the charts thinking, “I’ve seen this before,” just go back a week and you’ll find the exact same behavior playing out.

I won’t sit here and say, “I expected that,” but after Friday’s tariff news, I can say I took advantage of it before the close. Did it play out the way I like? Not really—I prefer a flowing Market, not a choppy one. In these conditions, spreads widen (I don’t fight computers—I buy at the ask, sell at the bid, since I’m trading for dollars, not pennies), price action gets messy, and any move tends to lose momentum fast.

Did I manage to close my positions? Honestly, only half of them. And for the past five days, I’ve bounced between “I should have closed all of it” and “More downside is coming.”

Do I blame the Market? No.
Do I blame the participants? Nope.

I’m just a person managing my own trading, projecting my own thoughts onto charts. I take losses the same way I take gains—what matters is that, over time, the gains outnumber the losses. Simple as that.

I’ve removed some metrics from the article. Why? Because I reminded myself that things get way too foggy when you try to juggle too many complex variables at once. Personally, I’ve always had a clearer outlook by just focusing on price action and a few solid indicators—nothing fancy, just the usual suspects: MACD, RSI, ATR, Bollinger Bands, and so on.

And as my blog says, “Keep it simple, stupid.” So, we’re going back to simple, stupid stuff. The Market is a fascinating place—you can make it as complicated or as easy as you want. That’s just how it is when numbers get involved. When forecasts start feeling foggy, what you need is clarity—not more complexity.

What happened last week? Gap down at the open—once again, thanks to “bad news.” The low (5923$) landed right on target at 5920$ (expected range was 5970$-5920$), hovering around S2 at 5916$. Then, just like the previous week, the Market spent the rest of the time climbing back up, closing that gap. I was expecting something to happen between the 5th and 7th, and Friday’s move on the 7th? That was exactly what I had been waiting for. Wouldn’t mind another bite, of course. But the Market rarely cares about what “I” want.

Just for fun, I changed the color of the five candles from the week of January 27th to yellow—same for the five candles from the week of February 3rd but in blue.

What’s next? Yep, the usual choices: Up, Sideways, or Down.

Up? Always a possibility. But what about probabilities? They look better than last week, simply because the Market has spent two weeks trying to decline and repeatedly found buyers at lower levels. Earnings are still rolling in, and they tend to support upward movement. Up to where? I wouldn’t be surprised for the Market making new highs so yeah R1 and R2 range would fit.

Sideways? Definitely possible. Some might argue that the Market has already been moving sideways since January 24th—and honestly, they wouldn’t be entirely wrong. It really depends on what you mean by “sideways.”

Down? Last but not least—if the Market decides it’s time to take a breather, I’d be watching for strong support around 6000$, given its psychological significance. If that doesn’t hold, then I’d be looking at R1 as the next level to step in.

My outlook? Unless something major shakes things up over the weekend, the Market usually tries to stay consistent with Friday’s action. Sure, there will be some adjustments at the open as people price in weekend events, but after that, it tends to stick to the script. What does that mean? I still see some downside that could last until around February 12th, and after that, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Market snapping back up.

6200$-6250$ by February 18th? Still looks solid. Let’s see how it plays out.

I’ve also sketched out what my eyes are picking up on. I don’t usually give much weight to these formations until they actually break out—either up or down—from the trendlines shaping them. So, for now, technically, there’s nothing there. No broadening top formation, just lines waiting for confirmation.

Someone smarter than me might point out that there are other patterns on different Market Indexes that typically signal a move down. It’s up to you to check if that holds true or not.

Seasonal Context & Events

The fourth week of earnings season continues, with Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples remaining the primary focus. Next week, attention will shift to Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors. There are no holidays or options expirations this week, keeping the schedule uninterrupted. However, the first few days of the week may still be influenced by inflows and outflows as funds and investors adjust their positions, potentially impacting market movement before stabilizing later in the week.

Key events include:

03rd February 15:00 UTC ISM Manufacturing PMI

04th February 15:00UTC JOLTs Job Openings

05th February 15:00UTC ISM Services PMI

06th February 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

07th February 13:30UTC Unemployment Rate

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
27/01/2025	0.69
28/01/2025	0.30
29/01/2025	0.41
30/01/2025	0.82
31/01/2025	0.24

Quite clear tendency to remain low.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
2.69	0.75
2.21	0.63

Declined from last week, but still inconsistent reading for a rally to the up.

Coherence

SP500	+1.18%
RUT	-0.08%
DJT	-1.71%

Can’t see coherence, profit taking, slowing down.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6201
R2	6192
R1	6176
Close	6040
S1	5916
S2	5891
S3	5856

Wrap Up & Forecast

Yep, “Buy the rumor, sell the news”—classic. But when you prioritize quantity over quality, you’ll eventually find yourself in a less-than-ideal position. What had people panicking on Monday quickly turned out to be a low-quality fear—one of those overreactions that, in hindsight, makes little sense. Unless you’re trading, investing, or flipping coins on a completely different set of rules, that move soon proved to be untradable—like most of those dramatic openings that gap far from the previous close due to some X event.

In the coming days, you’ll see some people asking themselves, “What the hell did I just do?” while others will be thinking, “I love this.” The difference? One reacts, the other acts. It’s up to you to figure out who does what, but the answer isn’t exactly hidden. Small hint—reacting in the Market often leads to losses or, at best, flawed analysis. How do you know if you reacted or actually acted with intention? Simple—if you don’t like the outcome, there’s a 99.99999% chance you just reacted.

To save the hassle of flipping back through previous articles, I’ve updated the chart to include last week’s lines, making it easier to see how the Market moved relative to the forecast. And as always, at the bottom, you’ll find the chart for the coming week’s outlook.

What happened last week? Our linear thinking, based on the forecasted range-bound behavior between 6000$ and 6100$, would have suggested one of two scenarios: either a dip toward 6000$ followed by a climb to 6100$ by the end of the week, or, factoring in some event-driven volatility and earnings noise, a choppy ride with long wicks bouncing between those levels. But the Market has its own way of keeping things interesting—sometimes all it takes is a couple of headlines to flip the script.

The Market gapped down on Monday, dropping below the expected range to 5969$ close by S1. But funny enough, it still managed to close at 6012$—almost as if there was a reason for that, right? And from there, it climbed right toward 6100$ and then we all know what happened on Friday on the last hours (or you can just look below).

What’s next? Since the dawn of the stock market, the options have always been the same: up, sideways, or down.

Up? Sure, it’s in the mix. But meh—just looking at the candlesticks, this move seems like a retest of the January 24th high, which didn’t exactly power through resistance. Will it break next week? Well, yeah—up is always on the table, so it could happen. But if you’re paying attention to any indicator that tracks divergence (which, let’s be honest, is most indicators), you might notice a slight bearish divergence between price action and where the indicators are sitting. If you’re eyeing the upside, that’s something to keep in mind.

Sideways? Also a possibility. But let’s be real—sideways is just meh. Whether you’re a trader or an investor, you know it’s the least entertaining scenario (unless, of course, you’re into those bizarre options strategies that thrive on nothing happening).

Down? Always an option! Down to where? I’d be looking at the 5970$-5920$ range. Yep, away from al R levels.

As for my outlook? Same as previously mentioned—I still expect a dip starting around February 5th-7th, lasting until February 10th-12th, followed by a short-lived move back up toward 6200$-6250$. Honestly, I don’t have a specific downside target in mind. I’ll just let the blue dotted lines and green lines do the talking.

Yep, had to push my 6200$-6250$ target back a bit—now looking closer to February 18th. Let’s see how that plays out.

Seasonal Context & Events

The 3rd week of earnings season is here, bringing reports from sectors like Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples—classic mid-season players. Big names like Microsoft and Tesla are set to release earnings next week, so keep an eye on the calendar for those. With no holidays or options expirations to distract us, all eyes will shift to the Fed’s Interest Rate decision on the 29th. Add in the usual end-of-month inflows and outflows from both retail and professional investors, and you’ve got a recipe for some interesting Market moves. Let’s see how it all unfolds!

Key events include:

29th January 19:00UTC FED Interest Rate Decision

29th January 19:30UTC FED Press Conference

30th January 14:30UTC GDP Price Index

30th January 14:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

31st January 14:30UTC Personal Income & Spending

31st January 14:30UTC PCE Price Index

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
20/01/2025	0.67
21/01/2025	0.82
22/01/2025	0.34
23/01/2025	0.65
24/01/2025	0.49

Started getting out of the 0.60-1.00 area.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
3.39	1.67
3.30	0.97

Building up on low volume.

Coherence

SP500	+1.44%
RUT	+0.93%
DJT	+0.75%

Coherent to the up, profits taking, driven.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6258
R2	6256
R1	6245
Close	6101
S1	5958
S2	5927
S3	5909

Wrap Up & Forecast

I was expecting a pause last week, followed by a resumption of the uptrend by week’s end. Instead? No pause—just a straight shot upward. When I make mistakes like this, I always ask myself, “How could I have known?” This question forces me to review what I might have missed or misinterpreted. If I find something, I take note. If not, I revisit my journal every six months and ask myself again: “Do I know now?” If the answer is still no, I keep at it. Does this sound obsessive? Maybe. But in the lawless world of the Market, you have to make your own rules—and, more importantly, stick to them. Everyone’s good at making rules; following them is another story (reminds me of politics). If you’re looking for guidance, I highly recommend The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. It’s best read after one to three years of messing up in the Market—because let’s face it, without the pain and sacrifice, it just won’t hit the same.

Now, on to serious matters—what happened last week?

A relentless rise straight to the up stalling in between R1 and R2, that’s what happened. So relentless, in fact, that any indicators you might use would’ve been screaming “Extreme!” or flashing a metaphorical “Low oxygen at this altitude!” From a seasonal and contextual perspective, which week would have had a higher probability of a pause: last week or the coming week? It’s easy to see now, in hindsight. But forecasting isn’t hindsight, and maybe I should have read my indicators better or projected them into the week ahead with a clearer understanding of the seasonal and event-driven context. Do I know where I went wrong? Yes. Do I care? Of course—learning from mistakes is part of the game. Do I take it personally? Not anymore. I’ve stopped taking it personally—I just tweak my approach and move forward. As the book wisely puts it: “The Market doesn’t hurt you; you let it hurt you. It has no control over you, and you have no control over it. It’s not your opponent, and you’re not its enemy.”

So, what about next week? The usual options are on the table: up, sideways, or down.

The Market has been climbing in a straight line, stalling between R1 and R2, which seem to be putting up quite the fight. What does that tell us? The Market might be gearing up for a pause in its upward move. If that’s true, the likely scenarios are either sideways or down—because up has already had its turn.

For sideways, I’d expect the Market to hold between the recent high and the 6000$ level (blue dashed lines in the chart). For down, I’d be looking lower, around the 5950$-5970$ zone, or to use a reference, S1 . That said, the Market rarely goes straight down right after a strong rally, so what I see shaping up at the moment is a small range-bound behavior between 6100$ and 6000$. I’d anticipate a dip somewhere starting around February 5th-7th going to S1 area, followed by a resumption of the uptrend around February 10th-12th.

Why, you ask? Magic? Maybe. But more likely, it’s the result of thousands of hours spent staring at charts instead of scrolling through reels on my phone. And the fact that I still make mistakes only means one thing: I’ll keep doing it.

What if it goes up? Well, all the R levels are above 6200$, which technically means no resistance at all. Practically, though, there might be some famous Bands tightening things up and restricting any upward moves for now. Classic Market—you’ve got to love the contradictions.

In the article “10/01/2025: The Week Ahead” I mentioned a target of 6250$-6300$ by mid-February. That target still stands. Let’s see if the Market plays along.

Seasonal Context & Events

The second week of earnings season keeps the spotlight firmly on Financials and Big Banks—still under the microscope for now. As for what’s next? Weeks 3 and 4 will bring Industrials, Technology, and Consumer Staples into focus, so expect the narrative to shift soon. This week will be a little shorter, with the Market taking Monday off for Martin Luther King, Jr. Day. Oh, and no options expirations this week, so at least that’s one less thing to overthink.

Key events include:

23rd January 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
13/01/2025	0.74
14/01/2025	0.75
15/01/2025	0.73
16/01/2025	0.74
17/01/2025	0.67

Sticky in the green, everything above 0.60 for me is a bullish reading.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
2.45	1.01
1.85	0.97

Somebody looks like hedging against a correction. That’s the only red flag I’ve in the readings so far. But VO readings is supporting of a temporary position.

Coherence

SP500	+3.71%
RUT	+4.55%
DJT	+3.63%

Coherent to the up, enthusiast.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6145
R2	6138
R1	6113
Close	5996
S1	5858
S2	5808
S3	5793

Wrap Up & Forecast

A solid start to earnings season, paired with supportive macroeconomic data, gave the Market a nice boost on Wednesday. Coincidence? Maybe, but let’s not forget that I’ve already declared my disdain for Wednesdays—it’s not personal, it’s just how it is. Last week, I mentioned, “If all those analysts predicting how the season will unfold were always right, do you think we’d even have ‘reactions’ anymore?” Wednesday’s gap was a perfect reminder of two things: If you don’t know, you can always work and learn to know. But if you can’t know, relax—it’s out of your hands.

So, what went down last week? Monday opened lower touching previous S1 (yes, that gap from November 6th, 2024, finally closed on Monday, so I’ll stop obsessing over it… or maybe not). Gaps always leave breadcrumbs about where support and resistance have been—and might be again—so make a note, whether in your journal or on your charting software. After the gap closed, the Market shot straight up opening on Wednesday right at R1. Were you quick enough to jump in? Or did hesitation hold you back?

The rally continued through Thursday but started losing steam as the trend ran out of momentum quite close to R2. Then came Friday, with a gap-up opening that might have reignited some optimism in the air but already feeling R3.

So, what’s next? As always, the options remain the same: up, down, or sideways.

Down? Well, that depends on what you mean by “down.” For me, a downtrend means an actual decline that lasts for days—none of this slow-motion sideways grind losing 0.1% per day. That’s not “down”; that’s the Market taking a nap. Do I see down as a possibility? Of course, it’s always an option. But given it’s earnings season, post-options expiration, with no major events or “catastrophic headlines” on the horizon, I wouldn’t expect a meaningful or tradable move to the downside.

Sideways? That’s definitely on the table. Picture the Market burping, digesting last week’s moves, and flirting with the psychological resistance level of 6000$, where plenty of retail traders likely have profit-taking or strike prices lined up. With Monday off for the Market, and a shorter week ahead, sideways seems like a safe bet.

Up? Absolutely possible. Up to where? Don’t be surprised if the Market aims to revisit the early December 2024 highs. That said, unless something remarkably good happens, I’d expect this to play out closer to the end of the month rather than this week.

Overall, next week doesn’t seem like it’ll bring much action. I could be wrong, but the more likely scenario is waiting until the end of the week—or even next week—for a shot at resuming the uptrend. I don’t mind being wrong, so here’s a thought: the Market managed to close above that downsloping trendline from mid-December 2024, but with a small-bodied candle. Mix that with the possibility of a Tuesday dip quite close to that blue dotted trendline or in that area anyway—post-holiday hangover included—and it starts to make sense. As mentioned earlier, we might see a touch of weakness before the uptrend resumes, likely by the end of the week or into the next one.

Previously, in the post from January 10th, 2025, I mentioned February 18th-19th as a possible pause for the Market’s rise. I’d like to adjust that slightly to around February 12th for now. From there, some sideways action between February 12th and 18th-19th seems likely.

As for targets during this rally? Somewhere in the 6250$-6300$ range by mid-February sounds reasonable. Let’s see if the Market agrees.

Seasonal Context & Events

Earnings season kicks off this week, and as usual, the first wave belongs to the Financials and Banks. Big players like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs will set the tone, alongside early reports from credit card companies, insurance firms, and regional banks. It’s the classic Week 1–2 lineup.

No holidays this time around, so no excuses to skip the action. Several events are scheduled throughout the week, all conveniently pre-market.

Oh, and yes, options expirations are back this week. Let the games begin.

Key events include:

14th January 13:30UTC PPI

15th January 13:30UTC Inflation Rate + Core Inflation Rate

15th January 13:30UTC CPI

16th January 13:30UTC Initial Jobless Claims

Those events may or may not influence the opening direction and subsequent days.

Thermometer

Breadth

Date	Ratio
06/01/2025	0.46
07/01/2025	0.40
08/01/2025	0.57
10/01/2025	0.13

Well below the 0.60 area, reflecting the down of the week, with Friday almost at bottom scale.

Put/Call Ratio

OI	VO
1.65	1.13
2.11	2.48

Readings softening compared to last week, still looking bearish.

Coherence

SP500	-2.61%
RUT	-3.79%
DJT	-0.85%

Coherent, legitimately scared, follows along.

Support & Resistance Levels

R3	6027
R2	5988
R1	5903
Close	5827
S1	5783
S2	5696
S3	5674

Wrap Up & Forecast

I read the news, like everyone else. Do they influence me? Maybe not consciously, but subconsciously? Probably—hard to prove otherwise. But do I care about them? Not in the slightest.

Earnings season kicks off this week, and here comes the usual mix of reactions, gap ups, and gap downs. If all those analysts predicting how the season will unfold were always right, do you think we’d even have “reactions” anymore? Hardly. If everyone truly knew everything about an equity, prices wouldn’t move—they’d just close at the so-called “real value.”

So, do I listen to analysts? Nope. Equities and Indexes already reflect everything that’s known and how it’s being interpreted—both emotionally and with actual money on the line. The Market tells the story, not the talking heads.

Let’s see how earnings unfold and let the numbers play out. After the season ends, you’ll get a clearer picture of company status and how the market interprets the data. But let’s be real—analysts are just people sitting in offices, plotting ideas about the future. Nothing more, nothing less.

What happened last week? The Market gave it a shot on Monday, trying to recover, but just didn’t have the energy to power through the cluster of resistance sitting right there. Funny enough, last week’s forecast predicted a reversal zone between 5975$ and 6000$. The close? 5975.38$. Close enough? Maybe for the 0.38$, but the range was 25$, should have been narrower.

From there, the Market started sliding again, eventually finding solid support around 5807$. My target was 5783$—still 25 points off. A bit too much to call this a “reliable blog,” so feel free to stop reading from here.

But if you’d prefer to keep on reading, here’s the deal: the Market can do three things—go up, go sideways, or go down. What’s the likelihood of each? Earnings are just around the corner, and apart from panicked or delusional traders, random events, and oh yeah, options expiration, there’s really “nothing” to worry about. Or is there?

Down? Sure, it’s possible, but with plenty of support around 5825$ and 5800$, there’s not much room left before buyers start stepping in. Sideways? Highly likely. Either low volume or that classic choppy action where you feel like a trading genius one day and a complete amateur the next. Up? Definitely on the table as well.

The Market seems like it wants to head upward but is being held hostage by indecisive participants who can’t figure out what to do next. Events in the week ahead might add some volatility, creating even more uncertainty and translating into choppier stock charts. For an uptrend to really take hold, Thursday and Friday might offer some confirmation—or maybe as early as Tuesday. Why not Wednesday, you ask? Because Wednesdays don’t vibe with me.

As for entry points, they might appear midweek, hidden somewhere in the usual noise. Or maybe they’ve already passed. Perhaps Friday was the moment? Then again, Monday could just continue Friday’s trend. Or, what if something tragic happens over the weekend, and we open at S1 around 5730$? Anything is possible—it’s all about probabilities and, more importantly, focusing on what you can actually control.

And then? Maybe an upward leg until February 18th-19th sounds plausible. But let’s be real—this won’t be all unicorns and rainbows. Corrections and sideways movements are almost guaranteed to show up along the way. Or maybe this is just wishful thinking. Only time will tell.